NASDAQ ready to continue up.We are positioning for long entries in the Nasdaq, anticipating that the VIX will continue its decline toward calmer levels at Mondayโs open. This aligns with the observed rotation out of defensive sectors and the increasing risk appetite in cyclical and growth-oriented sectors.
The setup suggests a risk-on environment, with potential for sectoral leadership shifts favoring tech and high-beta equities, as implied volatility contracts and market sentiment improves.
Trade ideas
Nas100 - Pulls Back from Record Levels, Testing Critical SupportZone 1: Major Supply / Rejection Area
This zone aligns with the upper consolidation structure from which the last impulsive sell-off originated. Sellers have shown clear presence here, making it a strong supply pocket. As long as price remains below, it acts as a tactical short zone or at least a reaction point where momentum may fade. A sustained break and acceptance above would neutralize the selling pressure and open the door for a retest of the highs.
Asia Session High: Intraday Pivot
This intraday level marks short-term liquidity and offers a reference point for session-based structure. If price holds below it, short-term bias stays bearish toward the lower demand zone; reclaiming it intraday could trigger a squeeze back into Zone 1.
Zone 2: Key Demand / Buy-Side Liquidity Area
This zone has repeatedly acted as a strong buy-side absorption region. It represents the base of the prior impulse move, where aggressive buyers stepped in to defend structure. A clean hold here could produce a sharp rebound, while a decisive break below would confirm a shift in market control toward sellers and potentially start a deeper correction cycle.
Sentiment
The Nas100 remains near record highs, with sentiment best described as bullish but cautious. The market is still being driven by expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts, falling bond yields, and strong momentum in AI and large-cap tech stocks. Despite a weaker macro backdrop, investors continue to treat the tech sector as a structural growth play and a safe haven in an uncertain environment.
However, the tone is far from euphoric. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a โdata blackout,โ leaving traders without key economic releases such as CPI or employment figures. This has made the market more headline-driven and prone to volatility. At the same time, renewed U.S.โChina trade tensions and rising warnings about overvaluation are keeping risk awareness high.
Overall, sentiment on US100 remains positive, supported by liquidity and tech optimism, but the rally rests on fragile ground - driven more by policy expectations and momentum than by clear fundamental strength.
How to find algorithmic levels of support and resistanceUsing repeating pinpoint levels to form meaning of opens and closes around these levels give you an advantage in your analysis.
As price gives us clues to what levels are affecting price, we should mark the new candles that are responding to these levels by breaking and retesting these very levels.
Please let me know your thoughts! ๐๐พ
US govt Shutdown Impact on GOLD/BTC/SPX/NDX Overview๐ Scenario analysis
Assumed probabilities: 10-day (35%) / 20-day (40%) / 30-day (25%). These skew toward 20โ30d expectation while allowing for a compromise CR late next week.
๐๏ธ 1) 10-day shutdown (quick CR by ~Oct 10)
โข ๐ Catalysts: market wobble + travel/FAA headlines + IPO freeze optics force a deal; leadership meeting produces a clean CR.
โข ๐ SPX/NDX: -3% to -5% drawdown from pre-shutdown highs, then sharp relief. Mega-cap quality outperforms; small-caps lag on SBA loan pause.
โข ๐ป Bitcoin: -3% to -8% (high beta to equities, liquidity cautious); quick snapback if the deal lands and SEC footprint stays light.
โข ๐ก Gold: +1% to +3%; fades a bit on resolution as real-rate anxiety reasserts. History shows shutdowns arenโt a reliable gold rocket on their own.
๐๏ธ 2) 20-day shutdown (through ~Oct 20) โ โpolicy fog tradeโ
โข ๐ Catalysts: prolonged policy riders; BEA/Census blackout delays GDP/retail sales; SEC skeletal staff extends IPO drought. Fed guidance leans on forecasts, not fresh data.
โข ๐ SPX/NDX: -5% to -8%. Factor rotation: low-vol/defensive > cyclicals; brokers/ECM-sensitive names soft; travel/airlines weak on FAA/TSA constraints.
โข ๐ป Bitcoin: -8% to -15% or flat-to-up if โcrypto vs. Washingtonโ narrative picks up while enforcement is thin โ mixed precedent. This is the most two-sided asset here.
โข ๐ก Gold: +3% to +6% as uncertainty premia build and central-bank-buying narrative stays intact. Stretching to $3,900โ3,950 bullion target likely needs an added shock (ratings rhetoric, geopolitical flare).
๐๏ธ 3) 30-day shutdown (into late Oct) โ โrisk-off with rating overtonesโ
โข ๐ Catalysts: political stalemate; louder warnings about governance; issuance continues but optics around fiscal sustainability bite.
โข ๐ SPX/NDX: -7% to -12%; HY spreads widen; VIX spikes; defensives/quality lead.
โข ๐ป Bitcoin: -15% to -25% on de-risking and liquidity run-down unless regulatory paralysis creates a โwild westโ window and ETF inflows offset โ low probability but non-zero.
โข ๐ก Gold: +5% to +10%. A test of new cycle highs is plausible; hitting ~$3,900 quickly would likely require a ratings/FX scare, not just a shutdown.
________________________________________
๐งญ Whatโs different this time
โข ๐ Data blackout = policy uncertainty: Delays to GDP/retail sales/trade stats complicate Fed read-throughs โ markets price fatter uncertainty premia.
โข ๐ Regulatory throttle: SEC/CFTC โskeletal staffโ โ IPO drought and slower filings (headwind to brokers/ECM), even as EDGAR stays up.
โข โ๏ธ Real-economy micro-pain points: FAA hiring/training halted โ travel frictions; SBA lending paused โ small-cap cash flow stress.
โข โ ๏ธ Ratings optics: After Moodyโs downgrade, governance headlines cut deeper than in prior shutdowns.
________________________________________
๐คน Contrarian angles
1. ๐ช โBad data is no dataโ rally: If key prints are delayed, the market extrapolates a dovish Fed trajectory โ curve bull-steepening and equities rally on rates, overpowering shutdown angst.
2. ๐ป Crypto resilience: A lighter-touch SEC during a lapse can reduce headline risk; BTC has rallied during a shutdown before, though not consistently.
3. ๐ก Gold stall: If real yields back up on supply/duration worries rather than down on growth fear, gold can underperform despite the shutdown โ history shows no clean positive beta.
4. ๐ Buy-the-resolution pop: Equitiesโ median post-shutdown performance is positive at 3โ6 months โ setting up a tactical sell the rumor / buy the cease-fire template.
________________________________________
๐ก Trades & risk management tactical, 2โ6 weeks
๐ Equities (SPX/NDX)
โข ๐ก๏ธ Hedge now, monetize spikes: 4โ6 week put spreads on SPX/NDX (โ25ฮ/10ฮ) sized for a -6โ8% path; roll down if we breach the first support zone. Consider VIX 1โ2M calls as convex tail protection.
โข ๐ Pairs/tilts: Underweight ECM-sensitive brokers; overweight staples/health-care utilities; short airlines vs. travel alternatives until FAA constraints clear.
๐ป Bitcoin
โข ๐ก๏ธ De-gear & collar: Reduce leverage; implement collars (sell 10โ15ฮ OTM calls to finance 20โ25ฮ puts). If we gap lower into -10% territory quickly, look to sell downside skew and pivot to short-dated call spreads into resolution.
๐ก Gold
โข ๐ Own upside, respect mean-reversion: Use GLD call spreads (1โ2M) targeting +4โ8% with limited theta. $3,900โ$3,950 bullion target is a stretch on shutdown alone; size for base-case +3โ6% unless a ratings/geopolitical catalyst emerges.
๐ Small-caps / credit
โข ๐ IWM vs. QQQ underweight (SBA bottlenecks); keep HY credit hedged via CDX HY or HYG puts into Day 15+.
________________________________________
๐ Levels & signposts to watch
โข ๐๏ธ Policy tape: Any Senate movement on a โcleanโ CR; signs of healthcare rider compromise.
โข ๐
Data calendar: Official notices on jobs/CPI/GDP timing (BLS/BEA/Census). A confirmed delay โ more policy fog premium.
โข โ๏ธ Micro stress: FAA/TSA updates; SEC operating status for registrations; SBA loan queue.
โข โ ๏ธ Ratings rhetoric: Any agency commentary tying shutdown length to governance risk.
________________________________________
๐ Bottom line
โข ๐ Base path: A -5โ8% equity drawdown with gold +3โ6% and BTC -8โ15% is the modal 2โ4 week outcome if we run ~20 days.
โข โ ๏ธ Tail path: At 30 days, governance optics + data blackout can push SPX/NDX -7โ12%, BTC -15โ25%, gold +5โ10%.
โข ๐ Contrarian risk: A quick CR or a โno data โ dovishโ impulse squeezes shorts โ be ready to pivot to a buy-the-resolution stance.
Institutions Are Hedging Their Longs / A Crash May Be ComingWe have several factors pointing toward a high-risk environment in the market. There are multiple bubbles, a president who has created global drama, high interest rates, and an economy that is so overstimulated that, in principle, a crash is needed to straighten things out and bring the market back to reality.
Right now the market is not rational. We have a tech sector with sky-high P/E ratios, the S&P 500 versus the Fed Funds Rate at levels that have historically led to extreme crashes, and COT data showing how institutions have positioned their futures contracts. It clearly shows that institutions are afraid and have therefore hedged against their long positions.
They are hedging, timing is difficult, and we donโt know exactly when this will happen, but we may already be seeing the beginning. Right now professionals are securing themselves. We are in a perfect storm for a crash; one drop too much and the entire market could flip flat.
I have made great gains this year in gold, the tech sector, and even on several short-term trades. I am currently 50% hedged through various products such as options, futures, and other instruments. I am ready, if the market continues higher I will remain fairly neutral, but if we crash I will make a significant profit. Sure, we could see another bull run, but the data suggests anything but that. Play smart.
Can NASDAQ Hold 24,600 and Push to New Highs?Hey Traders, in tomorrowโs trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a potential buying opportunity around the 24,600 zone. NASDAQ remains in an uptrend and is currently in a correction phase, with price approaching a key support/resistance level at 24,600.
Structure: The broader trend is bullish, with price moving within an ascending channel.
Key level in focus: 24,600 โ a critical support area aligning with the lower boundary of the channel.
Next move: Holding above this level could set the stage for a rebound toward 25,100, which represents the channelโs upper resistance and potential higher high formation.
Trade safe,
Joe.
NZD 100 pushed downward momentumOn the M15 timeframe, the structure has been broken, confirming a bearish bias. From the lower timeframes, we now expect the price to drop from the golden M3 zone toward the horizontal target level below.
As always โ stay patient, follow your plan, and trust your analysis.
NASDAQ NAS100 Trade Plan: VWAP & Volume Profile StrategyIโm currently watching the NASDAQ #100 (#NDX) ๐. After a strong correction due to geopolitical turmoil ๐, the market rebounded just as aggressively. Right now, price is trading above VWAP ๐. If it stays above VWAP, Iโll be looking for a long opportunity.
In the video, we zoom into a 30-minute timeframe โฑ๏ธ, using VWAP and Volume Profile to plan the trade. If price respects these levels, we can take a long. If it falls below the support level โ, we abandon this idea.
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
NasdaqHello traders! Last Friday, we had a major selloff in the 25,000 region, which quickly sent the Nasdaq crashing by more than 4% in just a few hours. In technical analysis, 24,000 is a price that has been broken previously and is now being tested as weekly support. If we expand this movement, we project a target price of 26,000, continuing the upward movement. The technology sector remains promising with advances in artificial intelligence, and we have no news of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Happy trading!
NAS100 โ Technical AnalysisPrice is testing the 24,300.00 support zone after failing to hold above 24,500.00, indicating sustained selling pressure within the current bearish swing. The 4H structure shows repeated rejections at 24,750.00, suggesting that buyers are losing strength while sellers remain dominant.
Support at: 24,300.00 ๐ฝ / 23,900.00 ๐ฝ / 23,000.00 ๐ฝ
Resistance at: 24,500.00 ๐ผ / 24,750.00 ๐ผ / 25,000.00 ๐ผ / 25,170.00 ๐ผ
๐ Bias:
๐ฝ Bearish: Continuation below 24,300.00 could trigger a deeper drop toward 23,900.00 next.
๐ผ Bullish: A firm close back above 24,750.00 would shift sentiment back toward 25,000.00โ25,170.00 levels.
๐ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
NAS100Success in forex trading requires a disciplined combination of education, strategy, and risk management. First, thoroughly understand how currency markets work, including technical and fundamental analysis, and stay updated on global economic events. Develop a clear trading plan with defined entry and exit points, and stick to it consistently to avoid emotional decisions. Use proper risk management, never risking more than a small percentage of your capital on a single trade, and always set stop-loss orders to limit losses. Practice patience, as consistent profits come over time rather than quick wins, and continuously review and refine your strategies based on performance and market changes.
US100 HTF MARKET OUTLOOKMMSM (Market Maker Sell Model) is imminent if Price Action follows what I have denoted in this trade idea.
DISCLAIMER:
The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS).
The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits.
All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute advice.
No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea.
If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)-The Grand Super Cycle Journey๐ง The Grand Super Cycle Journey of NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
Here's a comprehensive, narrative-style description of NASDAQ 100 (NDX) INDEX based on Elliott Wave Theory , Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , Fibonacci Retracements/Extensions , Price Action , and Fundamentals across Super Cycle , Macro , and Micro Waves ๐๐:
๐ฑ Super Cycle Wave 1: The Birth of Tech (1986โ2000)
The journey begins with Wave 1 , ignited by the early tech boom โ Microsoft, Intel, and the rise of Silicon Valley ๐. This impulsive leg spans over a decade, culminating in the dot-com bubble peak in 2000.
๐น Smart Money Insight: Early accumulation started in the '80s, followed by massive markup into the 1990s. Retail entered late, leading to the euphoric climax in 2000.
๐น Price Action: Parabolic rallies, breakouts through historical resistance, ending in a massive overextension.
๐น Fundamentals: Era of growth, innovation, low inflation, and initial internet adoption.
๐ช๏ธ Super Cycle Wave 2: The Great Correction (2000โ2009)
The bursting of the dot-com bubble triggered a complex correction labeled as W-X-Y. This 9-year structure ends in the 2008โ09 financial crisis low. The market retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level , a classic deep correction in a strong long-term bull market.
๐ธ Smart Money: Distribution at the top โ manipulation through global uncertainty (9/11, housing bubble) โ reaccumulation near the 2009 lows ๐ง ๐.
๐ธ Fundamentals: Enron scandal, 9/11, housing collapse, Lehman bankruptcy โ a decade of fear and instability ๐๏ธ.
๐ Super Cycle Wave 3: The Exponential Phase (2009โ2029)*
The most powerful leg โ Wave 3 โ is unfolding, targeting an eventual 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~85,000) . This wave is subdivided into 5 Macro Waves , each composed of 5 Micro Waves . Here's how the structure progresses:
โ๏ธ Macro Wave 1 (2009โ2012)
Started at the GFC low, this wave marked the beginning of recovery, finishing with 5 orange micro waves .
๐ Micro Waves: A clean 5-wave impulse showing the early stages of structural strength.
๐ Price Action: Break of structure (BoS) confirms bullish reversal.
๐ฆ Fundamentals: QE1/QE2, low interest rates, tech stabilization, birth of FAANG era ๐ป.
๐ Smart Money: Institutions started accumulating in late 2009โ2010, reflected in tight consolidations and sharp rallies.
๐ Macro Wave 2 (2012)
A brief and shallow correction within the bullish context โ a classic bullish flag in terms of price action. Quickly ended with higher lows.
๐ง SMC: Short manipulation phase to shake weak hands.
๐ Price Action: Pullback respected prior structure โ no trend break.
๐ฅ Macro Wave 3 (2012โ2021)
This was the largest and most explosive wave , extending over 9 years and forming 5 purple micro waves.
๐ฃ Micro Waves: Clean impulsive structure, confirming a classic Elliott wave fractal.
๐ก Fundamentals:
Rise of cloud computing
Mobile-first economy
AI, semiconductors, and social media explosion
COVID-19 crash and rebound โ the fastest recovery in history
๐น Fibonacci: No deep retracements โ sign of a healthy, powerful wave 3.
๐ง Smart Money: Deep accumulation during COVID crash โ massive expansion post-March 2020 ๐.
๐งฑ Macro Wave 4 (2021โ2022)
A healthy correction that reset the structure โ completed around the 2022 low. This wave maintained market structure integrity.
๐ป SMC: Liquidity sweep of previous lows + mitigation of demand zones.
๐ Price Action: Range-bound, bearish to neutral.
๐ Macro Headwinds:
Interest rate hikes
Inflation fears
Global instability (Russia-Ukraine, energy crisis)
๐งฌ Macro Wave 5 (2022โ2029) โ Now Unfolding*
This is the final thrust of the Super Cycle Wave 3 , subdivided into 5 micro waves (current count in progress):
๐ธ Micro Wave 1 โ
Initial rally from 2022 lows, showing strong impulsive behavior.
๐ง Smart Money: Confirmed shift from reaccumulation to expansion.
๐ธ Micro Wave 2 โ
Pullback formed higher low โ acted as final reaccumulation.
๐ด Micro Wave 3 โ In Process (2025โ2026)
This is expected to be the strongest wave within Macro Wave 5, projected to peak near 36,000 (2.618 extension of micro 1โ2).
๐ Price Action: Aggressive higher highs and shallow pullbacks.
๐ง SMC: Expansion with little liquidity left below โ institutions pushing price up.
๐ก Fundamentals:
AI hypergrowth
US tech dominance
AI chips, quantum computing, tokenization
Renewed bullish risk appetite ๐
๐ Micro Wave 4 (Expected 2026โ2027)
A corrective wave likely to retest the macro structure โ forming a flag or triangle.
๐ Price Action: Sideways to downward chop, retracing 0.382โ0.5 of wave 3.
๐ง SMC: Inducement setup before final rally.
๐ Macro: Possible geopolitical or monetary tightening phase.
๐ต Micro Wave 5 (Expected Top in 2029)
The final leg of Macro Wave 5 and Super Cycle Wave 3. Expected to top near 85,000 , a 2.618% Fibonacci extension of Super Cycle Waves 1โ2.
๐ฏ Final Parabolic Blow-Off
๐ Price Action: Euphoria, exponential rally, low-volume melt-up
๐ Smart Money: Final distribution phase โ retail FOMO peaks
๐งจ Fundamentals: Mania phase โ โeverything AI/metaverse/tokenizedโ narrative, record valuations, IPO booms.
๐ฎ Looking Beyond: Super Cycle Wave 4 (Post-2029)
Once the 85K target is met, a multi-year correction is expected โ possibly deep and drawn out. Historically, Wave 4s retrace 0.236% to 0.382% and take years to unfold.
๐ง Expect:
Systemic debt pressure
Currency shifts
Economic reset themes
Potential Fed policy overcorrection
Liquidity crunch
๐ง๏ธ Super Cycle Wave 4 may retest previous demand zones around 30โ36K.
๐ Final Thoughts
Our analysis represents an extraordinary blend of Elliott Wave fractals , institutional behavior (SMC) , and macro-fundamental alignment . We are in the late phase of a historical Super Cycle rally โ but Wave 3 still has room to run ๐.
โ
Wave Count Aligned
โ
Fibonacci Extensions Respected
โ
SMC Structure Intact
โ
Macro-Fundamentals in Sync
๐ 2025โ2029 could be the final push before a generational correction. Smart investors must watch for distribution signs post-36K ๐.
"Trust the waves, not the noise." โ FIBCOS ๐
๐ Disclaimer: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management.
#FIBCOS #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #NASDAQ #XAUUSD #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
THE ULTIMATE CHESS MATCH...THE FINANCIAL MARKETSHey hey everybody JosePips here!!! Just wanted to drop a fire video about how we as retail traders should be approaching these markets, what they truly represent, & how we are witnessing the ultimate chess match take place...so let's dive in to what I go through in this video
1. The mindset behind the markets: People & Money
2. What the markets represent: the ultimate chess match
3. The chess match between buyers & sellers
4. The RETAIL ADVANTAGE: 3rd party witnesses
5. The business of the markets
6. How WE as RETAIL participants can UTILIZE this chess match to create our trading/business decisions with PROBABILITY
OK guys! I dropped some heat in this video! Hope you all enjoy & REMEMBER...EMOTIONAL trading is not trading..it's just hope :)
Cheers!!
H4 INTRA-DAY IDEAIntra-Day Buy Model Idea
DISCLAIMER:
The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS).
The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits.
All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute advice.
No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea.
If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.
US NAS100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
NAS100 can continue higher inside the channelPrice has been moving steadily inside an ascending channel, with buyers maintaining control and pushing higher.
If buyers manage to defend this breakout zone on a retest, it would confirm their control and follow continuation toward the channelโs upper boundary. However, if sellers step in and force a drop back below, that could hint at a false breakout and short-term pullback.
For now, momentum favors the buyers, as long as price holds above the breakout area, the bullish structure remains intact.