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US NDAQ 100 - Forward (18 Sep - 17 Dec)US NDAQ 100 - Forward (18 Sep - 17 Dec)US NDAQ 100 - Forward (18 Sep - 17 Dec)

US NDAQ 100 - Forward (18 Sep - 17 Dec)

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NASDAQ Faces Downside Risk Amid Tariff and Shutdown UncertaintyUSNAS100 – Technical Outlook Aligned with Fundamentals The Nasdaq 100 fell sharply on Friday, losing nearly 1,200 points within six hours as it retreated from its all-time high. The drop came amid renewed U.S.–China tariff tensions and growing uncertainty from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data releases and weighed on sentiment ahead of third-quarter earnings season. Technically, the index is showing clear bearish pressure, and sellers will likely maintain control while the price remains below 23,930. A short-term corrective rebound toward 24,160 – 24,350 is possible before renewed downside momentum. If the price closes a 1H or 4H candle below 23,930, it would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend, opening the way toward 23,700 → 23,500 → 23,350. Conversely, as long as the index trades above 23,930, limited corrections may occur, but overall bias remains weak under current macro headwinds. Pivot Line: 23,930 Support Levels: 23,700 / 23,500 / 23,350 Resistance Levels: 24,160 / 24,340 / 24,480 Summary: Fundamental headwinds — from tariff threats to the shutdown’s data vacuum — are fueling pressure on tech stocks. Technically, bias stays bearish below 23,930, with a potential correction toward 24,350 before continuation to the downside.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
US govt Shutdown Impact on GOLD/BTC/SPX/NDX Overview📊 Scenario analysis Assumed probabilities: 10-day (35%) / 20-day (40%) / 30-day (25%). These skew toward 20–30d expectation while allowing for a compromise CR late next week. 🗓️ 1) 10-day shutdown (quick CR by ~Oct 10) • 🔑 Catalysts: market wobble + travel/FAA headlines + IPO freeze optics force a deal; leadership meeting produces a clean CR. • 📉 SPX/NDX: -3% to -5% drawdown from pre-shutdown highs, then sharp relief. Mega-cap quality outperforms; small-caps lag on SBA loan pause. • 💻 Bitcoin: -3% to -8% (high beta to equities, liquidity cautious); quick snapback if the deal lands and SEC footprint stays light. • 🟡 Gold: +1% to +3%; fades a bit on resolution as real-rate anxiety reasserts. History shows shutdowns aren’t a reliable gold rocket on their own. 🗓️ 2) 20-day shutdown (through ~Oct 20) — “policy fog trade” • 🔑 Catalysts: prolonged policy riders; BEA/Census blackout delays GDP/retail sales; SEC skeletal staff extends IPO drought. Fed guidance leans on forecasts, not fresh data. • 📉 SPX/NDX: -5% to -8%. Factor rotation: low-vol/defensive > cyclicals; brokers/ECM-sensitive names soft; travel/airlines weak on FAA/TSA constraints. • 💻 Bitcoin: -8% to -15% or flat-to-up if “crypto vs. Washington” narrative picks up while enforcement is thin — mixed precedent. This is the most two-sided asset here. • 🟡 Gold: +3% to +6% as uncertainty premia build and central-bank-buying narrative stays intact. Stretching to $3,900–3,950 bullion target likely needs an added shock (ratings rhetoric, geopolitical flare). 🗓️ 3) 30-day shutdown (into late Oct) — “risk-off with rating overtones” • 🔑 Catalysts: political stalemate; louder warnings about governance; issuance continues but optics around fiscal sustainability bite. • 📉 SPX/NDX: -7% to -12%; HY spreads widen; VIX spikes; defensives/quality lead. • 💻 Bitcoin: -15% to -25% on de-risking and liquidity run-down unless regulatory paralysis creates a “wild west” window and ETF inflows offset — low probability but non-zero. • 🟡 Gold: +5% to +10%. A test of new cycle highs is plausible; hitting ~$3,900 quickly would likely require a ratings/FX scare, not just a shutdown. ________________________________________ 🧭 What’s different this time • 📉 Data blackout = policy uncertainty: Delays to GDP/retail sales/trade stats complicate Fed read-throughs — markets price fatter uncertainty premia. • 📜 Regulatory throttle: SEC/CFTC “skeletal staff” → IPO drought and slower filings (headwind to brokers/ECM), even as EDGAR stays up. • ✈️ Real-economy micro-pain points: FAA hiring/training halted → travel frictions; SBA lending paused → small-cap cash flow stress. • ⚠️ Ratings optics: After Moody’s downgrade, governance headlines cut deeper than in prior shutdowns. ________________________________________ 🤹 Contrarian angles 1. 🪙 “Bad data is no data” rally: If key prints are delayed, the market extrapolates a dovish Fed trajectory → curve bull-steepening and equities rally on rates, overpowering shutdown angst. 2. 💻 Crypto resilience: A lighter-touch SEC during a lapse can reduce headline risk; BTC has rallied during a shutdown before, though not consistently. 3. 🟡 Gold stall: If real yields back up on supply/duration worries rather than down on growth fear, gold can underperform despite the shutdown — history shows no clean positive beta. 4. 📈 Buy-the-resolution pop: Equities’ median post-shutdown performance is positive at 3–6 months — setting up a tactical sell the rumor / buy the cease-fire template. ________________________________________ 💡 Trades & risk management tactical, 2–6 weeks 📉 Equities (SPX/NDX) • 🛡️ Hedge now, monetize spikes: 4–6 week put spreads on SPX/NDX (≈25Δ/10Δ) sized for a -6–8% path; roll down if we breach the first support zone. Consider VIX 1–2M calls as convex tail protection. • 🔄 Pairs/tilts: Underweight ECM-sensitive brokers; overweight staples/health-care utilities; short airlines vs. travel alternatives until FAA constraints clear. 💻 Bitcoin • 🛡️ De-gear & collar: Reduce leverage; implement collars (sell 10–15Δ OTM calls to finance 20–25Δ puts). If we gap lower into -10% territory quickly, look to sell downside skew and pivot to short-dated call spreads into resolution. 🟡 Gold • 📈 Own upside, respect mean-reversion: Use GLD call spreads (1–2M) targeting +4–8% with limited theta. $3,900–$3,950 bullion target is a stretch on shutdown alone; size for base-case +3–6% unless a ratings/geopolitical catalyst emerges. 📉 Small-caps / credit • 🛑 IWM vs. QQQ underweight (SBA bottlenecks); keep HY credit hedged via CDX HY or HYG puts into Day 15+. ________________________________________ 🔍 Levels & signposts to watch • 🏛️ Policy tape: Any Senate movement on a “clean” CR; signs of healthcare rider compromise. • 📅 Data calendar: Official notices on jobs/CPI/GDP timing (BLS/BEA/Census). A confirmed delay → more policy fog premium. • ✈️ Micro stress: FAA/TSA updates; SEC operating status for registrations; SBA loan queue. • ⚠️ Ratings rhetoric: Any agency commentary tying shutdown length to governance risk. ________________________________________ 📝 Bottom line • 📉 Base path: A -5–8% equity drawdown with gold +3–6% and BTC -8–15% is the modal 2–4 week outcome if we run ~20 days. • ⚠️ Tail path: At 30 days, governance optics + data blackout can push SPX/NDX -7–12%, BTC -15–25%, gold +5–10%. • 🔄 Contrarian risk: A quick CR or a “no data → dovish” impulse squeezes shorts — be ready to pivot to a buy-the-resolution stance.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
31
Institutions Are Hedging Their Longs / A Crash May Be ComingWe have several factors pointing toward a high-risk environment in the market. There are multiple bubbles, a president who has created global drama, high interest rates, and an economy that is so overstimulated that, in principle, a crash is needed to straighten things out and bring the market back to reality. Right now the market is not rational. We have a tech sector with sky-high P/E ratios, the S&P 500 versus the Fed Funds Rate at levels that have historically led to extreme crashes, and COT data showing how institutions have positioned their futures contracts. It clearly shows that institutions are afraid and have therefore hedged against their long positions. They are hedging, timing is difficult, and we don’t know exactly when this will happen, but we may already be seeing the beginning. Right now professionals are securing themselves. We are in a perfect storm for a crash; one drop too much and the entire market could flip flat. I have made great gains this year in gold, the tech sector, and even on several short-term trades. I am currently 50% hedged through various products such as options, futures, and other instruments. I am ready, if the market continues higher I will remain fairly neutral, but if we crash I will make a significant profit. Sure, we could see another bull run, but the data suggests anything but that. Play smart.
IG:NASDAQShort
by OssianH
US100: Potential reversal from overbought zone Symbol: SKILLING:US100 Timeframe: 30 Minutes Indicators: OB/OS Overlap (RSI, MFI, Stochastic) + S/R ________________________________________ 🔍 Quick Summary After a strong rally 🚀 from the 24,750–24,800 support area, US100 has reached the 25,280–25,300 resistance zone — where multiple oscillators are showing overbought signals. This suggests potential profit-taking or a technical correction may occur soon. ________________________________________ 📊 Price Structure • Price formed a temporary top after tapping the overbought area, with clear rejection candles near resistance. • A pullback toward the first support zone around 25,000–25,050 could occur before the next move. • If selling pressure continues, the next target area lies near 24,800–24,850, where previous structure and demand overlap 📉. ________________________________________ 🧩 Technical Highlights • OB/OS Overlap: RSI, MFI, and Stochastic are all in overbought territory (3/3 alignment) — a strong early signal of potential short-term exhaustion. • Price Action: A minor double top or bearish divergence may be forming if momentum indicators continue to decline. • Key Zones: Blue zones on the chart mark areas of potential buyer reaction (demand). ________________________________________ 🧭 Scenario Outlook Main Scenario (🔻 Pullback Expected): Price could retrace toward 25,000–24,850 before buyers attempt a rebound. Alternative Scenario (🚀 Continuation): If the price holds above 25,100 and breaks 25,280, the bullish momentum might continue short-term. ________________________________________ ⚙️ Risk Note This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage risk carefully and align your trade plan with your own strategy 📘💡. Market conditions can change rapidly — stay flexible and objective! Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨ Harry Andrew @ ZuperView
SKILLING:US100Short
by ZuperView
NASDAQ NAS100 Trade Plan: VWAP & Volume Profile StrategyI’m currently watching the NASDAQ #100 (#NDX) 📊. After a strong correction due to geopolitical turmoil 🌍, the market rebounded just as aggressively. Right now, price is trading above VWAP 📈. If it stays above VWAP, I’ll be looking for a long opportunity. In the video, we zoom into a 30-minute timeframe ⏱️, using VWAP and Volume Profile to plan the trade. If price respects these levels, we can take a long. If it falls below the support level ❌, we abandon this idea. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by fxtraderanthony
US100 Opens the Week with Cautious Optimism After Trade TensionsUS100 – 4H Technical Zone Analysis Zone 1: All-Time High This level represents the current top of the market and a heavy supply region. Until price closes decisively above this range with volume confirmation, it remains a key ceiling. Any push into this zone is high-risk for longs and ideal for short-term fade setups or liquidity hunts. Zone 2: Pre-Breakout Resistance This is the immediate resistance just below the all-time high. While a breakout through this zone may appear bullish on lower timeframes, traders should exercise caution. The proximity of the all-time-high resistance above significantly reduces reward-to-risk for fresh longs, price can easily reject from the upper zone and reverse quickly. A cleaner confirmation would require acceptance above both Zone 2 and Zone 1 before considering continuation trades. Zone 3: Key Demand This demand zone remains the foundation of the current bullish structure. It marks the origin of the recent rally and continues to attract responsive buyers on dips. As long as price holds above this level, the broader bias stays constructive. A clean break below would, however, shift short-term sentiment bearish and open the door for a deeper correction. Market Sentiment: Cautious Optimism After a volatile end to last week, US100 is starting the new week with a tone of cautious optimism. On Friday, renewed tension between the US and China rattled markets, as Washington floated new tariffs and export restrictions while Beijing hinted at countermeasures. However, over the weekend the tone softened, US officials signaled that they did not intend to escalate the trade conflict further, which helped calm investor nerves and lifted sentiment in global markets, particularly in Asia. Today, the index is trading slightly higher, supported by renewed risk appetite and continued strength in tech and AI-related stocks. Still, confidence remains fragile. Oil prices have weakened, raising questions about global growth, and the ongoing US government shutdown continues to delay key economic data releases. With limited visibility into real fundamentals, investors are largely trading on headlines and policy expectations. Overall, sentiment around the US100 is positive but delicate, the market is recovering from last week’s uncertainty, yet it remains highly sensitive to any renewed trade tension or negative macro surprises.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
NAS100 – Technical AnalysisPrice is testing the 24,300.00 support zone after failing to hold above 24,500.00, indicating sustained selling pressure within the current bearish swing. The 4H structure shows repeated rejections at 24,750.00, suggesting that buyers are losing strength while sellers remain dominant. Support at: 24,300.00 🔽 / 23,900.00 🔽 / 23,000.00 🔽 Resistance at: 24,500.00 🔼 / 24,750.00 🔼 / 25,000.00 🔼 / 25,170.00 🔼 🔎 Bias: 🔽 Bearish: Continuation below 24,300.00 could trigger a deeper drop toward 23,900.00 next. 🔼 Bullish: A firm close back above 24,750.00 would shift sentiment back toward 25,000.00–25,170.00 levels. 📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by SPOT_FX
Us100 - Breakout Setup In PlayThe market has formed a rising channel after a significant bullish reversal marked by a Change of Character (CHoCH) and a Break of Structure (BOS). Price is currently consolidating near the midline of the ascending channel. 🔍 Key Insight: We're in a wait-and-watch zone — a breakout from this channel in either direction could set the tone for the next move. Trading Plan: Upside Breakout: Watch for a breakout above the upper boundary of the channel with strong bullish momentum. Target the projected move equal to the height of the channel. Downside Breakout: If price breaks below the lower channel support, expect a potential bearish move toward the lower target zone marked on the chart. Important: Wait for a clear breakout and confirmation before entering a trade. Avoid entering inside the channel to minimize risk from false moves.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Hamza_Gold
NAS100 - Stock Market, Waiting for a Decisive Week?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its long-term ascending channel. As long as the Nasdaq is in its range, you can be a seller at the top of the range and a buyer at the bottom. If this range is broken, you can look for new trends in the Nasdaq. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2025 will be released on Friday, October 24 at 8:30 a.m. New York time (4:00 p.m. Tehran time). This release comes as most other economic data have been delayed due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has suspended normal operations. The CPI report is particularly important for the U.S. Social Security Administration, as it serves as the basis for calculating annual adjustments to retirement benefits and other statutory payments. In a statement released on Friday, the agency confirmed that it would temporarily recall a limited number of furloughed employees to ensure the timely publication of the CPI report. Originally scheduled for October 15, the release has now been rescheduled for October 24. This CPI release will be among the few remaining economic datasets published by federal agencies during the shutdown. Since October 1, most data-producing institutions have ceased operations amid political deadlock between Democrats and Republicans that has halted large portions of federal services. With the federal shutdown continuing, U.S. markets are increasingly relying on private-sector data to gauge the state of the economy. In the upcoming week, indicators such as housing sales and private manufacturing surveys will be released, serving as alternative references for traders and analysts. Without access to official government data, investors, businesses, and consumers face a heightened level of uncertainty, making it difficult to plan for spending, hiring, and saving decisions. The CPI report could play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, as the FOMC will have access to the data ahead of its October 28–29 policy meeting. Fed officials are currently debating whether to cut interest rates further, and if so, how quickly. In September, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to support a weakening labor market by reducing borrowing costs across short-term loans. Another rate cut is widely expected in October, though elevated inflation could slow or prevent further easing. The Chief Financial Officer of Bank of America (BOFA) stated that the bank expects two additional rate cuts by the Fed before the end of this year. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently warned about downside risks to the labor market, sparking speculation that he might have had early access to the yet-unreleased September employment report. However, a closer examination of his remarks shows no confirmation or denial of such access. The key takeaway from Powell’s speech was his firm reaffirmation of market expectations for a rate cut later this month, delivered without any sign of hesitation or opposition — a clear and confident signal to investors. In another commentary, Bank of America highlighted that the current boom in AI data centers is fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s. The bank attributed today’s expansion to strong semiconductor utilization, healthy cash flows, lower valuations, and a more favorable interest rate environment. Nonetheless, it acknowledged ongoing concerns about excessive spending and stretched valuations in certain AI sectors. Finally, the October Bank of America investor survey revealed that recession fears have fallen to their lowest level since February 2022, while optimism about economic growth has seen its strongest jump since 2020: • 33% expect a “no-landing” scenario (up from 18%) • 54% foresee a “soft landing” (down from 67%) • 8% anticipate a “hard landing” (down from 10%).
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
NAS100Success in forex trading requires a disciplined combination of education, strategy, and risk management. First, thoroughly understand how currency markets work, including technical and fundamental analysis, and stay updated on global economic events. Develop a clear trading plan with defined entry and exit points, and stick to it consistently to avoid emotional decisions. Use proper risk management, never risking more than a small percentage of your capital on a single trade, and always set stop-loss orders to limit losses. Practice patience, as consistent profits come over time rather than quick wins, and continuously review and refine your strategies based on performance and market changes.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by HavalMamar
NasdaqHello traders! Last Friday, we had a major selloff in the 25,000 region, which quickly sent the Nasdaq crashing by more than 4% in just a few hours. In technical analysis, 24,000 is a price that has been broken previously and is now being tested as weekly support. If we expand this movement, we project a target price of 26,000, continuing the upward movement. The technology sector remains promising with advances in artificial intelligence, and we have no news of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Happy trading!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by caueblanes
US100 HTF MARKET OUTLOOKMMSM (Market Maker Sell Model) is imminent if Price Action follows what I have denoted in this trade idea. DISCLAIMER: The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS). The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits. All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute advice. No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea. If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by CEO_SKAI_KAPITAL_PTY_LTD
2
Can NASDAQ Hold 24,600 and Push to New Highs?Hey Traders, in tomorrow’s trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a potential buying opportunity around the 24,600 zone. NASDAQ remains in an uptrend and is currently in a correction phase, with price approaching a key support/resistance level at 24,600. Structure: The broader trend is bullish, with price moving within an ascending channel. Key level in focus: 24,600 — a critical support area aligning with the lower boundary of the channel. Next move: Holding above this level could set the stage for a rebound toward 25,100, which represents the channel’s upper resistance and potential higher high formation. Trade safe, Joe.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by JoeChampion
20
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)-The Grand Super Cycle Journey🧠 The Grand Super Cycle Journey of NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Here's a comprehensive, narrative-style description of NASDAQ 100 (NDX) INDEX based on Elliott Wave Theory , Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , Fibonacci Retracements/Extensions , Price Action , and Fundamentals across Super Cycle , Macro , and Micro Waves 🔍📈: 🌱 Super Cycle Wave 1: The Birth of Tech (1986–2000) The journey begins with Wave 1 , ignited by the early tech boom — Microsoft, Intel, and the rise of Silicon Valley 🚀. This impulsive leg spans over a decade, culminating in the dot-com bubble peak in 2000. 🔹 Smart Money Insight: Early accumulation started in the '80s, followed by massive markup into the 1990s. Retail entered late, leading to the euphoric climax in 2000. 🔹 Price Action: Parabolic rallies, breakouts through historical resistance, ending in a massive overextension. 🔹 Fundamentals: Era of growth, innovation, low inflation, and initial internet adoption. 🌪️ Super Cycle Wave 2: The Great Correction (2000–2009) The bursting of the dot-com bubble triggered a complex correction labeled as W-X-Y. This 9-year structure ends in the 2008–09 financial crisis low. The market retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level , a classic deep correction in a strong long-term bull market. 🔸 Smart Money: Distribution at the top → manipulation through global uncertainty (9/11, housing bubble) → reaccumulation near the 2009 lows 🧠📉. 🔸 Fundamentals: Enron scandal, 9/11, housing collapse, Lehman bankruptcy — a decade of fear and instability 🏚️. 🚀 Super Cycle Wave 3: The Exponential Phase (2009–2029)* The most powerful leg — Wave 3 — is unfolding, targeting an eventual 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~85,000) . This wave is subdivided into 5 Macro Waves , each composed of 5 Micro Waves . Here's how the structure progresses: ⚙️ Macro Wave 1 (2009–2012) Started at the GFC low, this wave marked the beginning of recovery, finishing with 5 orange micro waves . 🟠 Micro Waves: A clean 5-wave impulse showing the early stages of structural strength. 📊 Price Action: Break of structure (BoS) confirms bullish reversal. 🏦 Fundamentals: QE1/QE2, low interest rates, tech stabilization, birth of FAANG era 💻. 📈 Smart Money: Institutions started accumulating in late 2009–2010, reflected in tight consolidations and sharp rallies. 🔁 Macro Wave 2 (2012) A brief and shallow correction within the bullish context — a classic bullish flag in terms of price action. Quickly ended with higher lows. 🧠 SMC: Short manipulation phase to shake weak hands. 📉 Price Action: Pullback respected prior structure — no trend break. 💥 Macro Wave 3 (2012–2021) This was the largest and most explosive wave , extending over 9 years and forming 5 purple micro waves. 🟣 Micro Waves: Clean impulsive structure, confirming a classic Elliott wave fractal. 💡 Fundamentals: Rise of cloud computing Mobile-first economy AI, semiconductors, and social media explosion COVID-19 crash and rebound — the fastest recovery in history 🔹 Fibonacci: No deep retracements — sign of a healthy, powerful wave 3. 🧠 Smart Money: Deep accumulation during COVID crash → massive expansion post-March 2020 📈. 🧱 Macro Wave 4 (2021–2022) A healthy correction that reset the structure — completed around the 2022 low. This wave maintained market structure integrity. 🔻 SMC: Liquidity sweep of previous lows + mitigation of demand zones. 📊 Price Action: Range-bound, bearish to neutral. 🌍 Macro Headwinds: Interest rate hikes Inflation fears Global instability (Russia-Ukraine, energy crisis) 🧬 Macro Wave 5 (2022–2029) – Now Unfolding* This is the final thrust of the Super Cycle Wave 3 , subdivided into 5 micro waves (current count in progress): 🔸 Micro Wave 1 ✅ Initial rally from 2022 lows, showing strong impulsive behavior. 🧠 Smart Money: Confirmed shift from reaccumulation to expansion. 🔸 Micro Wave 2 ✅ Pullback formed higher low — acted as final reaccumulation. 🔴 Micro Wave 3 – In Process (2025–2026) This is expected to be the strongest wave within Macro Wave 5, projected to peak near 36,000 (2.618 extension of micro 1–2). 📈 Price Action: Aggressive higher highs and shallow pullbacks. 🧠 SMC: Expansion with little liquidity left below — institutions pushing price up. 💡 Fundamentals: AI hypergrowth US tech dominance AI chips, quantum computing, tokenization Renewed bullish risk appetite 🌐 🟠 Micro Wave 4 (Expected 2026–2027) A corrective wave likely to retest the macro structure — forming a flag or triangle. 📉 Price Action: Sideways to downward chop, retracing 0.382–0.5 of wave 3. 🧠 SMC: Inducement setup before final rally. 🌍 Macro: Possible geopolitical or monetary tightening phase. 🔵 Micro Wave 5 (Expected Top in 2029) The final leg of Macro Wave 5 and Super Cycle Wave 3. Expected to top near 85,000 , a 2.618% Fibonacci extension of Super Cycle Waves 1–2. 🎯 Final Parabolic Blow-Off 📊 Price Action: Euphoria, exponential rally, low-volume melt-up 📈 Smart Money: Final distribution phase — retail FOMO peaks 🧨 Fundamentals: Mania phase — “everything AI/metaverse/tokenized” narrative, record valuations, IPO booms. 🔮 Looking Beyond: Super Cycle Wave 4 (Post-2029) Once the 85K target is met, a multi-year correction is expected — possibly deep and drawn out. Historically, Wave 4s retrace 0.236% to 0.382% and take years to unfold. 🧠 Expect: Systemic debt pressure Currency shifts Economic reset themes Potential Fed policy overcorrection Liquidity crunch 🌧️ Super Cycle Wave 4 may retest previous demand zones around 30–36K. 📚 Final Thoughts Our analysis represents an extraordinary blend of Elliott Wave fractals , institutional behavior (SMC) , and macro-fundamental alignment . We are in the late phase of a historical Super Cycle rally — but Wave 3 still has room to run 📈. ✅ Wave Count Aligned ✅ Fibonacci Extensions Respected ✅ SMC Structure Intact ✅ Macro-Fundamentals in Sync 📌 2025–2029 could be the final push before a generational correction. Smart investors must watch for distribution signs post-36K 📊. "Trust the waves, not the noise." – FIBCOS 🌊 📘 Disclaimer: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management. #FIBCOS #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #NASDAQ #XAUUSD #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by fibcos