DXY UpdateDXY — The Volume Cap: Where Momentum Meets Memory
Every market has memory — and in the Dollar Index, it’s sitting right at 97.4.
That’s the current Volume Cap — a zone where heavy participation once stopped price cold, leaving unfinished business behind.
Price loves to revisit these caps, testing whether the imbalance still holds or finally gives way.
⚙️ Context (4H | Friday Recap)
Friday delivered heavy volume and clean directional flow — a textbook session.
DXY continues to rotate within the 97.048–99.198 range, holding a short-term bullish tone inside a larger consolidation.
📊 Technical Map
• Structure: Long-term bearish range inside a broader consolidation phase.
• Momentum: Still bullish, but showing early fatigue.
• Volume Cap: The 97.4 level remains unfilled, acting like a magnet for potential retests — the true battleground between continuation and correction.
🌐 Fundamental Pulse
After a month of running hot, the dollar finally cooled.
Retail Sales and Industrial Production softened, yields eased, and traders started whispering “rate cuts” again.
The Fed’s cautious tone keeps volatility contained ahead of next week’s Core PCE inflation data.
🧭 Trade Plan (If/Then)
If DXY runs through 97.4, watch for a bearish Volume Cap flip — potential downside toward nearby support.
If Monday’s price action drives higher, expect bullish momentum rotation back toward the 97.0 retest region.
