Before we begin I just want to remind everyone that the chart is a bit skewed bc it is 12 months rolling.
That means we are measuring inflation YOY when we were on a lockdown of sorts. Having said that the
move is in fact excessive which is what so worrisome. Even as it balances out a 2.5% inflation would
put the 10-year bond yield way below inflation in negative...
Metals (DBB) are stronger than the dollar (UUP). So the market is heating up and despite the local correction there is still potential for growth.
It also predicts inflation, which might force the Fed to raise rates. But last time it took them 7 years to react.
Inflation (below) is also rising. It can fluctuate within some acceptable band for years.
There is an observable lag after M2 money supply explosions (as seen with rate of change) with an inflation rate breakout... BEFORE inflation peaks.
Looks like first wave of inflation should run hot until at least late 2022..
2 major inflation phases in the recent history (blue chart above): first time between 2009-11, post crisis times (yellow marks). During this time Nasdaq actly ended up 12% higher, while SP500 rose around 15%. I believe the difference is because Nasdag is more heavily weighted towards growth companies, which apparently sucked back then during staples and other...
Negative rates to continue venture in the abyss. Either by higher inflation OR a nominally negative Fed fund rate. Enjoy monetary insanity... until it can't be contained anymore. #gold #silver #inflation #fintwit $slv $gld
Melt down or not, US Equities are set to hibernate for a long time. As seen with Dow vs Silver ratio or this chart, next 10 years (maybe more)... you'll be losing wealth EVEN if your portfolio numbers remain the same. #silver #gold #fintwit #sitfolio
Silver's inflation defined +1140$ Target. Goodness for this epic chart... everything moves faster in end game fiat currency regime, so the analog move identified might be, let's say, more explosive! #silver #debt #gold #fintwit $slv $gld
Is this out of ordinary? Gold already above all-time highs.. why are we stuck up that silver has to stay sub 30$? Platinum, copper and other commodities already moving along. I think silver's turn at bat is close. Looking for a home run.
Real rates are what matters... Fed Fund rate being flat and controlled by Fed, then inflation rate will set the short term tone to "real rates". We know long term real rates are negative, but what about short term clues that could ripple outwards the curve? December 10th is the next official release for inflation rates numbers...
As "Powell Pivot" in late 2018 paved the way for gold's bottom and current bull era, a "Paul Volker Moment" will signal the end of it. One day, rates will have to outpace inflation rate... probably when we all think they cannot! Never doubt market forces... stay nimble! Until then, Gold and Silver go UP! #gold #silver $slv $gld #fintwit $sil $silj $gdx $gdxj