SOLANA Anatomy of the rest of the Bear Cycle.Solana (SOLUSD) has been consolidating practically since the February 02 2026 Low as the 1W RSI hit 30.00 (oversold) and the market took a breather from massively oversold grounds.
This resembles technically June 06 2022 during the previous Bear Cycle when SOL's 1W RSI also (almost turned oversold). That market the start of Stage 2 (red Rectangle) of the Bear Cycle, right on the 0.5 Time Fibonacci level.
The 0.5 horizontal (price) Fib should technically act as a Resistance from now on, same as the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which apparently just formed a Bearish Cross with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) around almost the same time as the 2022 Bear Cycle did.
Cycles are never completely identical but they are symmetrical due to similar market behavioral patterns and technically until the 1D MA200 breaks again, the Bear Cycle should continue (like it did in 2022, which ended once it broke).
As a result, the minimum Target moving forward, should be $36.00, as that is the 1.0 Fib level, down from the 0.618 Fib we are now, based on the symmetry with 2022 and assuming it continues to stand.
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In-depth trading ideas
SOL PERPETUAL TRADE SELL SETUP Short from $87.50SOL PERPETUAL TRADE
SELL SETUP
Short from $87.50
Currently $87.50
Targeting $83.50 or Down
(Trading plan IF SOL go up to $91
will add more shorts)
Follow the notes for updates
In the event of an early exit,
this analysis will be updated.
Its not a Financial advice
My History With The Crypto Currency SolanaI just crossed my fourth year as a contributing member of the Trading View community. In that time, more than 3,300 people have chosen to follow my work. When I started posting, I focused almost exclusively on Solana, largely because I had accumulated 4,000 tokens, with part of that position bought at $7.95.
I know what you’re thinking: “Sure you did… everyone claims they bought the bottom.”
I get the skepticism. But within my membership, the story of me scrambling to buy Solana with a spotty Wi‑Fi connection, sitting in a stadium box at a UCF football game, has become something of a running joke. It happened. And it was one of the better trades I’ve made.
What I also share openly is that I sold the entire position at $95, a decision I still consider sound. But after I sold, Solana went on to rally another 200%. Some might call that short‑sighted. Maybe. But here’s the truth: I’ve covered Solana every single day since then… and I have never re‑entered the trade.
That may be about to change. More on that in a moment.
Over the years, many of you who trusted my analysis back when Solana was just another speculative crypto experiment have reached out with kind words. I don’t expect that, but I do appreciate it. One comment in particular has stayed with me, and I think about it every time I post. Posted in the comments section of the below post.
Placing trust in a stranger is never easy. Yet through my work, some of you have done exactly that. And because of that trust, I feel a responsibility to be transparent, disciplined, and honest in my analysis. So let me lay out where I stand today—and what conditions must be met for me to re‑enter a long position in Solana.
Where Solana Stands Now
My current view is that Solana is in the final twists and turns of carving out a primary degree wave 2 bottom. This is the kind of bottom that can fuel an advance lasting years.
Yes—years.
But before anyone gets excited and rushes to buy, I need to be clear:
The final squiggles of this pattern strongly suggest Solana still faces a high probability of tagging $53.66 first.
Across multiple timeframes, everything funnels into the same conclusion:
For wave (A) to equal wave (C)—a common and highly reliable relationship, Solana would need to trade at $53.66.
I cannot tell you the exact timing. But based on the micro‑structure, I’d estimate weeks to months, not much longer.
So my message is simple:
Be patient.
Let the pattern finish. Let the structure confirm. If Solana delivers the kind of price action I’m expecting, remember the level:
$53.66 is where (A) = (C).
That’s where the opportunity may finally return...and along with it, my ability to go long.
Solana
Solana is moving through a sequence of cyclical channels, each representing a full expansion–correction–reaccumulation phase. The chart shows three completed cycles and a fourth projected one, suggesting that SOL is following a consistent long‑term rhythm of trending behavior on the weekly timeframe.
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Support and Accumulation
• The green zone marks a major long‑term demand area, where buyers have repeatedly absorbed sell‑offs.
• Price is currently stabilizing above this zone, forming a higher low relative to previous cycles.
• Candlestick behavior shows slowing bearish momentum and early signs of accumulation, similar to the start of previous bullish phases.
This zone is the structural foundation for the next potential expansion.
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Trend Channels and Momentum
Solana’s price action respects parallel channels, with each bullish leg forming a rising structure before topping out and correcting. The projected channel for 2026–2027 mirrors the slope and width of earlier expansions, indicating that the market may be preparing for another long‑term upward phase.
Key observations:
• The current consolidation sits at the lower boundary of the projected rising channel.
• Momentum is shifting from corrective to neutral, a typical precursor to trend reversal.
• The large upward projection aligns with the upper boundary of the future channel.
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Bullish Scenario
A breakout above the nearest resistance zone would confirm the start of the next expansion cycle. If buyers maintain control above the green support area, SOL could begin a multi‑month climb toward the upper channel target.
Bullish confirmation signs include:
• Strong weekly bullish candles
• Higher lows forming consistently
• Increasing volume during upward pushes
The projected target near the upper channel aligns with historical expansion behavior.
SOL - INSANE 8.5% Spike to $92! RSI >50, Testing $94-$96
What's up traders! 👋
Solana EXPLODED +8.5% to $92 today! RSI crossed 50 (first time this year = bullish momentum), $650B stablecoin volume record (Feb), Backpack IPO tokenization on Solana, Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust names Coinbase custodian, Trump supports CLARITY Act. Testing resistance $94-$96. Two scenarios: pullback to FVG $87-$90 then continuation to $100 OR direct breakout to $96-$100. Beta-driven rally with BTC +7.65%.
The Setup
SOL at $92 after INSANE +8.5% spike. RSI crossed 50 (bullish momentum). Testing resistance $94-$96 (red zone). FVG zones: Upper $88-$90, Lower $87-$89 (gray). Support $81-$83 (green). Two scenarios: pullback to FVG $87-$90 consolidation then push to $100 OR direct breakout through $96 to $100.
Key Levels
Resistance: $94-$96 (critical), $100 (psychological), $115 (major)
Support: $91.56 (38.2% Fib / must hold), $88-$90 (upper FVG), $87-$89 (lower FVG), $85 (pivot), $81-$83 (demand), $80 (line in sand)
News - March 4, 2026 (BULLISH DOMINANT)
BULLISH (DOMINANT):
• SOL +8.5% to $92.34. BTC +7.65% to $73K. Crypto market +6.6% (beta-driven rally)
• RSI CROSSED 50 (first time 2026 = bullish momentum strengthening)
• $650B STABLECOIN VOLUME (Feb record, doubled Oct). Highest of ANY blockchain
• Grayscale: SOL leads in users, transaction volume, fees. Shift from memecoins to payments
• BACKPACK IPO TOKENIZATION: Pre-IPO share access on Solana (Superstate partnership)
• Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust: Coinbase + BNY custodians (institutional validation)
• Trump supports CLARITY Act (called it "GENIUS"). Crypto sentiment dramatically improved
• Kraken Fed Master Account access. Clear Street: "Inflection point, bull run beginning"
• Coinbase +14.5%, Riot +8.1% (crypto stocks surging)
• Technical: Broke above $91.56 (38.2% Fib), volume +47%
• Social sentiment: Net bullish 5.08/10. DriftProtocol: "Bullish on Solana"
• Limited supply pressure until $95-$96 (path clear if hold $90-$92)
BEARISH/RISK:
• Just hit resistance $94-$96 (may need pullback)
• Descending triangle pattern suggests breakdown below $80 possible
• Head-and-shoulders pattern (bearish reversal signal)
• Down -54.54% (6M), -26.11% (YTD), -35.28% (1Y)
• $80 support critical (break = bearish)
• May consolidate before next leg up
Two Scenarios
PULLBACK THEN CONTINUATION: Reject $94-$96 → Pullback to FVG $87-$90 → Consolidate → Break $96 → Target $100-$115. Triggers: Profit-taking after 8.5% spike, healthy consolidation, then resume with BTC rally, stablecoin volume growth, institutional adoption.
DIRECT BREAKOUT: Break $96 with volume → Target $100 → $115. Triggers: BTC continues to $75K+, CLARITY Act passes, Morgan Stanley ETF launches, Backpack IPO momentum, stablecoin volume accelerates, RSI stays >50.
My Take
BULLISH (pullback then up, direct breakout). SOL EXPLODED +8.5% on beta-driven rally (BTC +7.65%). RSI crossed 50 (first time 2026 = bullish momentum). $650B stablecoin volume record = REAL utility. Backpack IPO tokenization + Morgan Stanley custodian = institutional validation. Trump CLARITY Act support = sentiment shift. Testing $94-$96 resistance after spike. Likely pullback to FVG $87-$90 for consolidation (healthy), then push to $100. If breaks $96 directly, target $100-$115. Key: Hold $91.56 support. Break below $88 = retest $85.
What do you think? Pullback or direct breakout? Drop your take! 👇
🚀 Boost if this helped!
Not financial advice. DYOR.
SOLUSD 8H Chart Review📊 SOL / USD Analysis (8H)
1️⃣ Market Structure
You have a clear rising channel.
Lower trend line → around 77–79
Upper trend line → around 93–95
The price has been bouncing between these lines for several weeks. This means:
➡️ Market in upward consolidation
2️⃣ Key levels
🟢 Resistance
90.16 – local resistance
94.23 – upper channel line
100.55 – strong resistance (high supply)
🔴 Support
84.5 – current reaction zone
77.68 – very strong support (channel line)
3️⃣ What just happened
Price:
reached the upper channel line (~94)
was rejected and fell to 84
This is a classic:
rejection from channel resistance
i.e., a return move to the channel center.
4️⃣ Stochastic RSI
The oscillator shows:
a break from overbought, downward momentum.
This suggests some further downward pressure.
📉 Scenarios
🟡 Scenario 1 (most likely)
Price tests lower:
82–80
i.e., the middle/lower part of the channel.
If demand appears there:
➡️ rebound again towards 90–94
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If it breaks:
77.68
the channel is broken and a move to:
72
68 is possible
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If it breaks:
94.23
a move to:
100
108 opens because this is another liquidity zone.
Sweep 80 Before Bounce — Sideways PressureHello everyone, Domic here again!
On the H4 chart, SOL is still oscillating around the 83 USD area, and the overall structure suggests the market has not yet escaped a weak accumulation phase beneath resistance. Price remains below the long-term EMA, while the short-term EMA is flattening — a sign that momentum is not yet strong enough to confirm a sustained uptrend.
Based on the current price structure and broader market context, the scenario I assign the highest probability is a dip toward the 79–80 zone first, followed by a rebound toward the 87–88 resistance area. This type of movement is quite typical during sideways conditions, where the market often sweeps liquidity at the range lows before rotating back to test the upper boundary.
From a macro perspective, the environment is still not particularly supportive for altcoins overall. US Treasury yields remain elevated as markets stay cautious about the Fed’s rate path, while crypto flows appear to be waiting for additional key data such as PMI, employment, and CPI. Recent Fed commentary is also being closely monitored, keeping short-term sentiment tilted toward risk-off. In a high-rate, cautious liquidity backdrop, higher-beta assets like SOL tend to face short-term downside pressure before a more durable recovery can develop.
What’s your view — range continuation, or an early breakout attempt?
SOL | Price Hunts for Deep-Double-DigitsThis chart should speak for itself.
Repeating cycles of Elliott Impulse Wave capturing price action in a large range. Similar to BINANCE:RAYUSDT we can expect more downside to come. These charts share the same major liquidity zone along with a bunch more tickers showing the exact same setup.
Since price is locked in this contraction phase the only feasible support lvl is back at FTX lows ($17).
SOL/USD — Price Tests Upper Range as Market Awaits BreakoutSOL/USD continues to trade inside a 91.00–75.00 sideways range, defined by the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. The pair has remained within this corridor for nearly two months and is now approaching the upper boundary, raising the possibility of an imminent directional move.
Market sentiment remains divided. Some analysts believe the broader crypto market may have already formed a bottom and could soon enter a recovery phase. Others warn the latest rebound may turn into a bull trap, similar to the short-lived rally seen earlier in the year.
⸻
Macro Drivers
Several opposing factors continue to shape the outlook for Solana and the wider crypto market:
• Escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is driving capital toward safe-haven assets such as the US dollar.
• Persistent inflation (CPI 2.4%, PPI 2.9%) supports the possibility that the Federal Reserve will delay monetary easing.
• Political controversy around the SANAE meme token on the Solana network briefly weighed on sentiment after Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly denied any connection to the project.
• At the same time, expectations surrounding the CLARITY crypto market structure bill in the United States are helping stabilize the market. President Donald Trump has publicly supported the legislation, increasing expectations that it could pass later this year.
Institutional sentiment has also shown modest improvement:
• Bitcoin ETF inflows: $1.145B over the last three sessions
• Fear & Greed Index: 22 (still in extreme fear)
⸻
Technical Structure
Technical indicators remain mixed:
• Bollinger Bands: Flat (range consolidation)
• Stochastic: Rising toward overbought territory
• MACD: Preparing to move into positive territory
This suggests that a breakout could occur soon, but the direction remains uncertain.
⸻
Key Levels
Resistance
• 112.50
• 150.00
• 162.50
Support
• 75.00
• 50.00
• 25.00
⸻
Trading Plan
Bullish Scenario
• Buy above: 112.50
• Entry: 112.55
• Targets: 150.00 → 162.50
• Stop-loss: 90.90
• Time horizon: 5–7 days
A confirmed breakout above the 107.40–112.50 resistance zone would signal renewed bullish momentum.
Bearish Scenario
• Sell below: 75.00
• Entry: 74.95
• Targets: 50.00 → 25.00
• Stop-loss: 90.00
A breakdown below 75.00 would invalidate the consolidation and likely accelerate the downtrend.
⸻
Outlook
SOL/USD remains trapped inside a long consolidation range, but momentum is building near the upper boundary. A decisive breakout above 112.50 or below 75.00 will likely determine the next major trend.
$SOL 1D Update: Looking good, higher lows Solana is starting to show some constructive price action after the heavy selloff.
Price continues to hold the 80–85 support zone, and over the past several sessions we’re seeing higher lows form, which is the first sign that selling pressure is fading. Each dip is being bought slightly earlier, allowing SOL to gradually grind higher.
Momentum is slowly shifting.
Despite still trading within the broader descending channel, the short term structure is improving:
• Higher lows building around 80–83
• Buyers stepping in on every pullback
• Price pushing back toward 88–90 resistance
This type of consolidation after a sharp flush is often the early stage of a bottoming process, where the market absorbs supply before attempting a larger move.
The key level to watch remains 90. A clean break and hold above that region would signal that momentum is shifting and could open the door toward the 100–110 zone.
As long as 80 holds, the structure continues to improve and bulls remain in control of the short term move.
Bottom line: SOL is starting to look healthier. Higher lows, steady bounces, and buyers defending support are all constructive signs that the market may be building a base before the next push higher.
How To Update Tradingview Indicators To New VersionsWhen a script author updates an indicator or strategy, you may still have the old version on your chart, so here are the easiest ways to update your charts to the new version of the indicator.
Click The Version Update Button
If you already have the indicator on your chart, refresh your browser and then you will see a purple refresh icon next to the indicator name. This icon means that there is a new version of the script available. Click the purple refresh icon and it will ask if you want to update the indicator on all of your charts or not.
If you have the indicator on multiple chart layouts and are sure you want to update all of them, then this feature is useful, but if you want to test them both and see which version you like better, turn that option off and only update it on the current chart.
The click the Update On Chart button and Tradingview will automatically load the new script version and update your chart.
Adding The New Version From The Indicator Search Panel
Another way to get the new version is to go into the indicator tab and search for the indicator name or select it from your invite only tab or favorites and then click on the name of the indicator. When you add an indicator to your chart this way, you will get the newest version added to your chart.
Learning About New Features Of The Updated Script
You can also click on the read more icon next to the indicator name in the indicators search panel to read the release notes about the indicator and learn about al of the new and updated features available with the new version of the script. Make sure to read the release notes to familiarize yourself with the updated version of the script.
If you don't see the new version refresh button or the old version loads when you add it to your chart from the indicator search panel, refresh your browser and then you will see the updated versions.
That's it! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comments below.
Happy Trading :)
$SOL Heading Lower ?Here I have the Solana Chart showing a potential Bearish pattern with price action leading it towards a probable price of anywhere between $25 - 20. With Bitcoin and Alts not having a fundamental purpose for further growth potential and Bitcoin officially in a Bear market this brings me to these price predictions.
*** Certain Outside Catalysts, Major news or Geopolitical
events may change / this analysis positively or negatively ***
Probability of this playing out = High
Time Frame = Next 3 - 8 months
Solana more Bloodshed? As you can see in my chart, this year Solana will be working its way back down to a previous low of $8.00 dollars or somewhere in the teens, dont count this out. Remember 2026 is the Crypto Bearmarket year, Top was on October 2025.
I will update throught the year, manage risk aaccordingly guys dont be bag holders, the crypto " HODL " narrative is dead 💀 Sell those coins if you haven made any significant amount of money in the past two cycles, there is a high likelyhood your coins narrative was already used for its purpose, be smart and move on.
Good luck to all 🫱🏻🫲🏼🧐
SOL Quick UpdateFollow me here on TV for my regular critical updates on crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL, MSTR) and metals (GLD, SL, PL) based on Martin Armstrong's Socrates. Look in my TV Ideas for posts of each market individually.
Sorry for not posting lately! I'm working on some crazy non-stop Agentic Coding projects 🤓
It appears that crypto may have bottomed in February!! looking at a possible 3-month recovery at this point.
¡Good luck! 🙏🏻
$SOL 1D Thoughts: Patience is key in this range Solana is still trading inside the broader descending channel, but zooming in, price is clearly ranging between roughly 75 support and 90 resistance.
After the sharp breakdown, SOL flushed into the low 70s and immediately found buyers. Since then, we have seen tight consolidation around 80 to 85. Despite the larger downtrend, sellers have not been able to push price into a new leg lower. That tells us the market is building short term balance.
Right now:
• 75 to 78 is acting as the local range floor.
• 88 to 90 is near term resistance.
• 125.50 remains the higher time frame breakdown level.
As long as 75 holds, this is range behavior. In ranges, the edge is typically buying near support and selling near resistance rather than chasing breakouts in the middle.
From a risk to reward perspective, dips into the mid to high 70s offer a defined invalidation level just below the recent lows. If 75 breaks cleanly with momentum, then the range fails and lower channel support becomes likely. But until that happens, buyers are defending this zone.
In short, SOL is still in range. The optimal dip buys are near the bottom of that range, not in the middle. Patience around support remains key.






















