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Major Global Soft Commodity Markets1. Understanding Soft Commodities 1.1 Definition and Classification Soft commodities are raw materials that are cultivated, harvested, and traded for various purposes, including food, feed, fuel, and fiber. Unlike hard commodities such as metals and energy resources, softs are perishable and subject to seasonal cycles. They are typically traded on futures markets, allowing producers to hedge against price fluctuations and investors to speculate on price movements. 1.2 Key Characteristics Perishability: Most soft commodities have a limited shelf life, requiring efficient storage and transportation systems. Seasonality: Production cycles are influenced by planting and harvesting seasons, affecting supply and prices. Geographic Concentration: Certain regions dominate the production of specific soft commodities, making them vulnerable to local disruptions. Price Volatility: Prices can be highly volatile due to factors like weather events, pests, and geopolitical tensions. 2. Major Soft Commodities and Their Markets 2.1 Coffee Coffee is one of the world's most traded commodities, with Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia being the top producers. The market is influenced by factors such as climate conditions, currency fluctuations, and global demand trends. Futures contracts for coffee are traded on exchanges like ICE Futures U.S., providing a benchmark for global prices. 2.2 Cocoa Cocoa is primarily produced in West Africa, with Ivory Coast and Ghana leading global production. The market has experienced significant price fluctuations due to supply deficits, often caused by adverse weather conditions and political instability in producing countries. The New York Cocoa Exchange, now part of ICE Futures U.S., plays a crucial role in setting global cocoa prices. 2.3 Sugar Sugar is a staple in the global food industry, with Brazil, India, and China being major producers. The market is influenced by factors such as government policies, biofuel mandates, and global consumption patterns. Futures contracts for sugar are traded on exchanges like ICE Futures U.S., providing transparency and liquidity to the market. 2.4 Cotton Cotton is essential for the textile industry, with China, India, and the United States being the largest producers. The market is affected by factors like weather conditions, labor costs, and global demand for textiles. Futures contracts for cotton are traded on exchanges such as ICE Futures U.S., offering a platform for price discovery and risk management. 2.5 Corn and Soybeans Corn and soybeans are vital for food, feed, and biofuel industries. The United States is a leading producer of both crops, with significant exports to countries like China and Mexico. Futures contracts for these commodities are traded on exchanges like the CME Group, providing mechanisms for hedging and speculation. 2.6 Wheat Wheat is a staple food for billions worldwide, with major producers including Russia, the United States, and China. The market is influenced by factors such as weather conditions, global demand, and trade policies. Futures contracts for wheat are traded on exchanges like the CME Group, offering a platform for price discovery and risk management. 3. Trading and Investment in Soft Commodities 3.1 Futures Markets Futures markets are central to the trading of soft commodities, allowing producers to hedge against price fluctuations and investors to speculate on price movements. Exchanges like ICE Futures U.S. and the CME Group provide platforms for trading futures contracts, offering transparency and liquidity to the market. 3.2 Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) ETFs provide investors with exposure to soft commodities without the need to directly trade futures contracts. For example, the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) and the Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB) offer investors a way to invest in these commodities through the stock market. 3.3 Physical Trading Physical trading involves the buying and selling of actual commodities, often through long-term contracts between producers and consumers. Companies like ECOM Agroindustrial play a significant role in the physical trading of commodities such as coffee, cocoa, and cotton. 4. Factors Influencing Soft Commodity Markets 4.1 Weather and Climate Conditions Adverse weather events like droughts, floods, and hurricanes can significantly impact the production of soft commodities, leading to supply shortages and price volatility. 4.2 Geopolitical Events Political instability, trade disputes, and sanctions can disrupt supply chains and affect the prices of soft commodities. 4.3 Economic Policies Government policies, such as subsidies, tariffs, and biofuel mandates, can influence the production and consumption of soft commodities, impacting their market dynamics. 4.4 Global Demand Trends Changes in consumer preferences, population growth, and dietary habits can affect the demand for soft commodities, influencing their prices. 5. Challenges and Risks in Soft Commodity Markets 5.1 Price Volatility Soft commodity markets are characterized by high price volatility due to factors like weather conditions, geopolitical events, and market speculation. 5.2 Supply Chain Disruptions Natural disasters, transportation issues, and political instability can disrupt supply chains, leading to shortages and price increases. 5.3 Regulatory Uncertainty Changes in government policies, such as trade restrictions and environmental regulations, can create uncertainty in the market. 6. Outlook for Soft Commodity Markets 6.1 Emerging Markets Countries in Asia and Africa are becoming increasingly important players in the production and consumption of soft commodities, influencing global market trends. 6.2 Technological Advancements Innovations in agricultural technology, such as precision farming and biotechnology, have the potential to improve yields and reduce the environmental impact of soft commodity production. 6.3 Sustainability Initiatives There is a growing emphasis on sustainable practices in the production and trade of soft commodities, driven by consumer demand and regulatory pressures. 7. Conclusion Soft commodities are integral to the global economy, influencing food security, industrial production, and trade dynamics. Their markets are complex and influenced by a myriad of factors, including weather conditions, geopolitical events, and economic policies. Understanding these markets is crucial for producers, traders, and investors alike to navigate the challenges and opportunities they present.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
2
Will the U.S. Supreme Court strike down tariffs?In November 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court could issue a historic ruling: determining whether President Trump alone has the right to impose tariffs without going through Congress. Behind this legal debate lies a major issue for U.S. trade policy and the balance of powers. The role of the Supreme Court As the highest judicial authority in the country, the Supreme Court has the power to uphold or strike down any measure that does not comply with the Constitution. Its decisions are final and binding on all institutions. In this case, the Court must assess whether the President overstepped his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. Thanks to the principle of judicial review, the Court must verify whether the executive branch respects the separation of powers. For decades, presidents have invoked the IEEPA to act quickly, especially in times of economic tension. This practice, tolerated until now, is now being challenged. A decisive choice – two possible outcomes: • If the Court confirms presidential power, the White House will retain broad freedom to impose tariffs without immediate checks. • If the Court limits or cancels this power, Congress will once again become the central actor in trade policy, slowing decisions but restoring institutional balance. The issue goes beyond the legal framework. A confirmation would strengthen the executive and could encourage a more aggressive approach in international negotiations. Conversely, a restriction would force a return to legislative compromise, complicating the implementation of economic sanctions but providing greater predictability to trading partners. A possible turning point for Fed monetary policy This ruling could redefine U.S. trade policy for years to come. It will influence how Washington manages trade disputes, conducts international negotiations, and balances power between the President and Congress. It will also strongly impact the Fed’s future monetary policy trajectory and, more broadly, financial markets. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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SP:SPXEducation
by Swissquote
S&P 500 (SPX) Remains Bullish and Should See Support in 3, 7, 11The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the S&P 500 (SPX) indicates that the cycle starting from the August 2, 2025 low is unfolding as a five-wave structure. From that low, wave ((i)) concluded at 6481.34. The subsequent pullback in wave ((ii)) developed as a running flat Elliott Wave pattern. In this structure, wave (a) declined to 6343.86, wave (b) rallied to 6508.23, and wave (c) fell to 6360.3, completing wave ((ii)) at a higher degree. The Index then advanced in wave ((iii)). From the wave ((ii)) low, wave (i) reached 6532.65, followed by a dip in wave (ii) to 6443.98. The Index climbed higher in wave (iii) to 6626.99, with a pullback in wave (iv) ending at 6551.15. Wave (v) then pushed to 6699.52, finalizing wave ((iii)). Currently, wave ((iv)) is correcting the cycle from the September 2, 2025 low, expected to unfold in a 3, 7, or 11 swing pattern before the Index resumes its upward trajectory. In the near term, as long as the pivot low at 6360.3 holds, dips should attract buyers in a 3, 7, or 11 swing structure, supporting further upside.
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
FOMC 100% Breakout (Check) - Key Resistance and 6500 Gamma PinFOMC was in fact a NOISE candle So I measured the candle, projected a 100% breakout bullish and bearish Bulls took the bait and ran higher, but still resistance @ 6700 seen today and hopefully a short-term window to see a bit of a slide lower into some technical levels EMA support levels -watching the 21 period daily EMA -watching the 50 period daily EMA 6550 FOMC candle lows from last week 6500 Gamma Pin with JP Morgan's quarterly collar trade This is the first day in several weeks where I've seen some actual follow through in negative gamma option flows If futures grinds prices lower, the cascade may take hold and we can see a 100-200 point selloff quickly in the S&P I still like scooping up premium and buying the dips, but hopefully at more attractive levels like 4-5% lower or even 8-10% lower Let's see how it plays out. I'll be in the markets grinding per usual. Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
SP500 Consolidation Higher to fresh HighsThe S&P 500 is consolidating within a strong range as U.S. stocks gained traction on Monday, extending record highs with additional support from the technology sector. Markets continue to assess the outlook for interest rates, but sentiment remains broadly positive. The index advanced more than 0.5%, maintaining a bullish structure. Key resistance is seen around 6760.40, while support rests near 6650. As long as price action remains above the support zone, the path of least resistance favours continued growth. You may find more details in the chart. Trade wisely best of Luck, Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Support.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by MrMartin_11
14
S&P500 push to another ATH?Momentum & Leadership: The index hit another record high yesterday (+0.44%), with strength again concentrated in tech and the Magnificent 7. Nvidia’s AI-driven deal with OpenAI (+3.93%) fuelled risk appetite and extended the rally. YTD gains show a narrow breadth: S&P 500 +13.8% vs equal-weighted S&P +7.7%. Macro Data Today: PMIs (US, UK, Eurozone, Germany, France): Watch for signs of resilience in services vs persistent weakness in manufacturing. A softening read could weigh on cyclicals but leave tech defensives relatively insulated. US regional activity (Philly Fed services, Richmond Fed manufacturing, business conditions): Key for growth sentiment after mixed signals in recent weeks. Q2 current account balance: Low market impact. Central Banks: Fed Chair Powell, Bowman, Bostic: Powell’s remarks could influence rate cut expectations post-FOMC. A cautious tone might temper equity momentum, while dovish signals could extend the rally. Trading Implications: The S&P’s rally remains narrowly led by tech/AI, leaving breadth weak. Today’s PMI prints and Powell’s speech are the main potential volatility drivers – stronger growth data may challenge Fed easing expectations (pressuring valuations), while softer data could reinforce rate-cut hopes and keep the rally alive. Watch semiconductors and Mag-7 for leadership; broader market participation is still lagging. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6726 Resistance Level 2: 6747 Resistance Level 3: 6770 Support Level 1: 6655 Support Level 2: 6627 Support Level 3: 6605 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by Trade Nation
S&P500 approaching a Resistance that was last tested in 1998 !!This isn't the first time we present you this chart, in fact from time to time (usually on a quarterly basis) we like to bring this forward with some adjustments in order to help us maintain a long-term perspective. And that technically shows the S&P500 index (SPX) trading within a century long Fibonacci Channel Up (since the 2029 Great Depression) with clear Bull and Bear Cycles. We will not get into much details on those, as they've been analyzed extensively in previous publications but we will point out that currently we remain inside a multi-year Bull Cycle. In fact, since the November 2022 market bottom, we believe we've entered the A.I. Bubble, which is in our opinion (perhaps a more aggressive) version of the Internet Bubble of the 1990s. Again this has been analyzed extensively before. Right now the index is approaching the top of the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib Zone (orange range). The one above (0.618 - 0.786 Fib, red Zone), was first entered in February 1998 and exited for good at the start of the Dotcom crash in February 2001. Since then, the market never even touched it (almost 25 years). We believe that a marginal test and break inside this 'ghost zone' could be attempting by late 2025 - Q1 2026 and then a strong correction back near the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) will present the next long-term buy opportunity that could fuel the A.I. Bubble until it finally bursts within 2030 - 2032. Until then, a 12000 Target on SPX isn't at all an unrealistic one, in our opinion. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
4
SPX500 – New Highs as Nvidia–OpenAI Deal Lifts Market SentimentSPX500 – Overview U.S. indices hit new highs as markets digested fresh headlines, including Nvidia’s (NVDA) plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, with the first data-center gear expected to ship in the second half of 2026. Analysts are split on the deal: bulls view it as confirmation that OpenAI sees no alternative to Nvidia GPUs, while skeptics question why Nvidia would fund a customer to buy its own equipment. Attention also turns to the September flash PMIs, which will test U.S. economic resilience amid tariffs. Australian PMIs disappointed, but they carry little correlation to U.S. growth. Technical Analysis SPX500 has reached the key 6,700 resistance and is stabilizing above it, signaling continuation of the bullish trend while price trades above this pivot. Bullish Path: As long as price holds above 6,700, upside targets remain 6,722 → 6,742 → 6,780. A strong 1H close above 6,742 would confirm further bullish extension. Bearish Path: A confirmed 1H close below 6,698 would signal a short-term correction toward 6,670. For a deeper bearish shift, price must break the 6,663 pivot on a 1H close, opening the way to 6,634. Key Levels Pivot: 6,700 Resistance: 6,722 – 6,742 – 6,780 Support: 6,672 – 6,663 – 6,634
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
US500 | H2 Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders, I hope you’ve all had a profitable week! 🧐 Market overview: The US500 has pushed into new highs since the FOMC and remains in an uptrend. However, price is advancing on weakening momentum — higher highs in price while RSI prints lower highs, a classic case of negative divergence. My system is flagging this as a potential double top setup on the 2H timeframe, but I am still waiting for confirmation before entering a short. Interestingly, while my system highlights bearish risk, there are also bullish signals worth noting: - Daily CMF money flow shows no negative divergence. - Daily MACD remains on a buy signal. - The recent rate cut adds further liquidity and stimulus to markets. 📊 My trade plan: Risk/Reward: 3.6 – 4.5 Entry: 6,655.6 – 6,661.8 Stop Loss: 6,674.8 – 6,678.6 Take Profit 1 (50%): 6,604 Take Profit 2 (50%): 6,563 The entry and stop ranges vary depending on where the setup confirms within the zone. Tip: Divergences often act as early warning signs of trend exhaustion, but they work best when combined with pattern confirmation (like a double top) rather than traded in isolation. 🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and keen to hear if you are trading the US500? :) Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by GTradingMethod
6
Fed easing and earnings fuel US500 (S&P500) rally, but headwindsFed easing and earnings fuel rally, but headwinds remain. Technical Perspective 1. The S&P 500 extends its rally, holding firmly above bullish EMAs. The EMAs consistent gap confirms strong constant momentum, reinforcing the potential for further gains. 2. The next target is 7,000, @ 161.8% Fibonacci retracement, which may act as a potential exhaustion point for the current bullish trend. 3. However, a bearish divergence between price and RSI has developed, signaling the risk of a short-term pullback in the range of 150–300 points. Such a move would likely be corrective rather than a reversal before reaching the target. 4. A decisive break above 6,700 would strengthen the bullish outlook, opening the path toward the 7,000 target. 5. Conversely, if a correction unfolds, it would be an opportunity, initial support is seen around 6,500, “the resistance become support level” that could now serve as a strong support. Fundamental Perspective 6. S&P 500 surged, fueled by the Fed rate cut decision for the first time since Dec2024 and the Fed’s dovish forward guidance which gave investors confidence about more rate cut. 7. Strong corporate earnings, combined with optimism around AI. The technology sector is a key driver, reinforcing bullish sentiment across the index. While other sectors got rotation effect sometimes. 9. However, there are some risks remain such as; if inflation unexpectedly return, forcing the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance. On top of that, valuations are stretched: the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio (PE) hovers above 27, above the 10-year average and even higher than the pre-COVID19. Such overvaluation could act as a headwind for the index going forward. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by KrisadaYoonaisil
IPO Market Is Hot – Explore Winners, Losers & Listing CandidatesThe IPO market has woken up from its multi-year nap and is now in beast mode. But as always, Wall Street’s hottest party comes with an entrance fee and a dose of uncertainty – opaque prices, sketchy balance sheets, and a whole lot of FOMO. So who’s winning, who’s losing, and who’s still waiting in the pipeline? Let’s find out. 🚀 The IPO Mania Returns After years of drought, IPO mania is back in full swing. More than 150 companies have listed this year – up from 99 at this point in 2024 and just 76 in 2023, according to Renaissance Capital. Together, they’ve raised nearly $30 billion, compared with $24 billion last year. First-day gains? Averaging 26%, the best since 2020. IPOs aren’t just back, they’re back with conviction. Renaissance estimates we could see 40–60 more deals before the year is out. In other words, if you thought you missed the fun, the afterparty’s still ahead. 🤗 The Winners Some debuts have been straight out of an IPO fantasy league. Circle NYSE:CRCL , the stablecoin issuer, lit up the screens with a jaw-dropping 168% surge on its first trading day. Firefly Aerospace NASDAQ:FLY , a rocket and lunar lander, blasted 30% higher on its IPO day, living up to its name. Klarna NYSE:KLAR didn’t exactly moon, but a 15% pop for a lossmaking buy-now-pay-later firm isn’t shabby in this environment. Then there’s Figure NASDAQ:FIGR , the blockchain-native mortgage lender. Since its listing in mid-September , it’s up 44% even after a midweek stumble. Investors love a fintech-meets-crypto mashup story – and Figure is playing it well. Who said Figma NYSE:FIG ? The design software maker went vertical in its market debut , although reality has since slapped it down from those frothy day-one highs. Still, design nerds everywhere are proudly watching their favorite platform make its way up the rankings among the world's biggest software companies . 😭 The Losers Not every IPO has the golden touch. StubHub NYSE:STUB , the ticketing platform, came in hot with an 8% intraday pop above its $23.50 listing price, only to end its first session underwater at $22 . The days after? Even worse – the stock is floating near the $18 mark. CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV , the AI up-and-comer, is a really interesting one. First off, it stumbled at the start after pricing its shares at $40 to float in March. It traded under its IPO price for a while before clawing back with AI hype fueling the shares by 450% May through June. Then insider selling knocked the winds out of its sails in August. Now it’s gravitating at triple its offering price, proving IPOs are a marathon, not a sprint. 🎲 The Pricing Game The truth is, IPO pricing is as much science as it is art (and sometimes performance art). Investment banks like Goldman NYSE:GS , Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS , and Citi NYSE:C run the roadshows, build the books, and set the price. Oversubscribed IPOs often guarantee a strong open. Undersubscribed ones? Crickets. Bears hate this one simple trick: most IPOs only float about 15–20% of the company. That tiny slice of tradable shares means volatility is baked into the flotation. Throw in a 180-day lockup (when insiders can’t sell), and early trading is a weird mix of price discovery and pure speculation. 💡 The Fundamentals Still Matter The hype is real, but the numbers don’t lie. Valuations on some of these newly public firms are eye-watering. Circle trades at 130x earnings estimates, Figma at 184x. Compare that to Adobe’s 5x and you see how far the IPO froth can go. Meanwhile, many of these firms aren’t consistently profitable. They post alternating quarters of red ink and black ink while investors cheer growth over everything. 🦄 Unicorn Watch: Who’s Next? Here’s who’s buzzing on the IPO radar and what they’re worth in 2025: • OpenAI, AI overlord, $500 billion • SpaceX, rockets and satellites, $450 billion • xAI / x.com, Elon Musk’s AI play, $200 billion • Anthropic, OpenAI rival, $190 billion • Databricks, data and AI analytics, $100 billion • Stripe, payments giant, $92 billion • Revolut, digital banking, $75 billion • Canva, design platform (and your CV maker), $42 billion • Fanatics, sports merch and betting, $30 billion • Discord, chat for gamers (and everyone else), $15 billion • Solera, software and data for auto and insurance, $10 billion • Grayscale, crypto asset manager (part of Digital Currency Group), $10 billion • AlphaSense, market intelligence, $4 billion • Wealthfront, robo-advisor, $2 billion • Quora, knowledge-sharing platform, $500 million 📉 The Risk of Chasing So should you pile in? Here’s the trader’s dilemma: first-day pops are seductive, but inflated pricing means you’re often exit liquidity for early investors. Waiting a few days, weeks, or even months for the froth to fade, lockups to expire, analyst coverage to roll in, and the hype to cool may be the smarter play. 🫶 Final Take The current IPO season is hot, but so is the risk. But every IPO is different. Circle shows monster returns are possible, while StubHub proves not every ticker deserves a ticker-tape parade. The winners? Companies with strong fundamentals (not just growth, but profits) and a story that Wall Street loves right now (AI, crypto, fintech). The losers? Overpriced firms without consistent performance. The candidates? Mega-unicorns waiting for their grand entrance and some smaller players ready to make a splash. As always, timing is everything. Here’s to hoping your favorite IPO won’t list right after a hawkish Jay Powell. Off to you : What IPOs are on your radar for this year and the next? Share your thoughts in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
7