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ES1 outlookES/NQ Outlook – Bearish Continuation Bias: Shifted from early Bullish/Neutral to bearish once ES failed to confirm NQ strength. Correlation cracks lined up with the broader sell-off trend. Macro Sentiment: Risk sentiment remains shaky — Bitcoin pushing toward 93K,recovering from gov-shutdown and no data releases, and inconsistent tech strength keep pressure on indices. Underlying tone remains defensive. ⸻ Market Structure • ES failed Friday’s Value High and rotated back below Friday’s POC. • Now holding under POC, confirming sellers remain in control. • Last session’s Value Low target still untested → unfinished business below. ⸻ Key Downside Targets • PDL: 6,778 • Friday VAL: 6,725 • Main unfinished target: 6,666.5 (untouched value level) ⸻ Plan Going Forward • Bias stays bearish while ES remains below Friday’s value high/poc but seeing interaction with week open.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maanav_ramchandani
2
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis for Week Ahead (Nov 17th - 21st)Market Analysis: ES1 - Navigating Recent Price Action and Upcoming Economic Catalysts Current Price Context: The E-mini S&P 500 (ES1) is currently trading in the range of 6,755 to 6,785, following a sharp pullback from the 6,880 to 6,900 peak and a notable rebound off the 6,650 levels. While both the weekly and daily structures exhibit an overarching uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows, we are presently experiencing a mid-pullback phase, with prices resting below a newly established supply zone spanning 6,850 to 6,900. Importantly, we remain above the key demand shelf situated around 6,650 to 6,670. Big Picture Overview: Weekly and Daily Trends - Weekly Analysis: Over recent months, ES has ascended from approximately 6,000 to the 6,900 level. The past few weeks have seen a new high printed, followed by a red candle signaling a pullback towards mid-range levels. Despite this corrective move, we maintain a buffer above the preceding weekly low near the 6,500 to 6,550 range, affirming the uptrend. The current price action appears more as a corrective pause rather than a definitive peak. - Daily Perspective: After reaching a new high just shy of the 6,900 mark, the market retreated into the mid-6,600s before bouncing back. Recent daily candles indicate a phase of consolidation within the 6,730 to 6,780 range, characterized by wicks on both ends and diminishing body sizes, alongside reduced volume compared to earlier volatility. Oscillator indicators are retreating from overbought conditions but appear to be stabilizing, suggesting a digestion phase rather than a full-scale momentum breakdown. Shorter Timeframe Analysis (4-Hour and 1-Hour): - On the 4-hour chart, a completed downward impulse from around 6,880 to the low 6,650s has been observed, with the price touching the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at approximately 6,653. Additional Fibonacci levels below include 6,597 (1.618) and 6,536 (2.0). The price action around the 1.272 extension has prompted a robust response, featuring significant green candles and increased volume, establishing a base between 6,700 and 6,800. - On the 1-hour chart, the market exhibits a minor uptrend (from lower lows to higher highs) that has encountered resistance around 6,780. Currently, price action is consolidating near a pivot level of 6,750, leading to the establishment of a balance range between 6,720 and 6,780 as we head into Monday. Summary: The broader context remains bullish on higher timeframes, with a corrective phase taking root on the medium timeframe, while the short-term landscape indicates balance. This scenario represents a classic "trend pullback parked on key support," with next week's developments likely steering us either back toward the highs or engendering a deeper test of 6,600 or 6,550, contingent on forthcoming economic data and Fed commentary. Macro and Event Landscape: A Busy Week Ahead The recent U.S. government shutdown has resulted in a considerable backlog of economic data releases. Market participants will be closely monitoring delayed payroll data, along with other significant indicators such as industrial production and housing metrics that are being released simultaneously. This aggregation of data is anticipated to introduce intraday volatility, particularly during the 8:30 to 10:00 AM ET windows. Key Economic Indicators to Watch: - Core Data Releases: In the week of November 17–21, critical releases include: - Empire State manufacturing index - Import and export price indices - Industrial production and capacity utilization figures for October - Housing starts and building permits scheduled for mid-week - Additional delayed labor data later in the week as agencies address the backlog. - FOMC Minutes and Fed Commentary: The release of the FOMC minutes from the late October meeting will communicate the Fed's confidence in the recent improvements in inflation and its openness to potential rate cuts in December. A lineup of Fed speakers is set to take the stage, likely influencing market sentiment and causing price reactions based on their comments. - Corporate Earnings: Noteworthy earnings reports from Nvidia and major retailers, including Walmart, are on the calendar. Nvidia's performance will be scrutinized as a barometer for the AI segment, while insights from retail giants will provide a glimpse into consumer health as the holiday season approaches. Strong results coupled with optimistic guidance tend to buoy ES, while any disappointments could weigh on index futures, especially given the concentrated leadership from a handful of major tech stocks. Market Sentiment and Positioning: Rate-cut expectations for December have decreased to about 40%, leaving investors cautious but not overly alarmed. This environment allows for potential relief rallies if data and Fed sentiments tilt favorably, while a series of negative reports may trigger a notable risk-off sentiment. Conclusion: The upcoming week is poised to be event-driven, lacking a singular "mega" release like CPI but rather presenting a series of medium-to-large catalysts (Fed minutes, late payrolls, industrial production, housing statistics, Nvidia, and Walmart). Traders should be prepared for choppy conditions and liquidity fluctuations around the release times, with clearer directional moves anticipated between these events. KEY ZONES – RESISTANCE Resistance 1: 6,780–6,800 Immediate intraday cap formed by the last 1h high and the 4h supply block from Friday. This is the ceiling that has repeatedly turned price in the last session. A 1h or 4h close above 6,800 would confirm that buyers are back in control and likely aim for 6,850+ fairly quickly. Resistance 2: 6,840–6,880 This is the core of the recent 4h supply and sits just below the prior daily high. It’s where the last strong sell program launched. If price trades into this pocket on light volume and stalls, that favours a lower-high top and another rotation back toward 6,720–6,700. If the tape pushes through decisively, shorts will be forced to cover. Resistance 3: 6,900–6,930 Recent swing high / weak high area on daily. It’s the obvious target for any early-week squeeze. If this zone gets cleaned out and holds on the retest, the uptrend resumes and we can start talking about higher fib extensions and a run toward the 7,000 handle. A sharp rejection here, especially around Fed minutes or Nvidia earnings, would fit a double-top pattern and could kick off a deeper pullback leg. Resistance 4: 7,050–7,200 This band lines up with the daily fib projection cluster (around 7,180–7,325) from the prior leg and the upper edge of the larger weekly supply. It’s not expected to be reached immediately, but if data and earnings line up bullishly, this is the swing target area for longs initiated off the 6,650–6,700 support. KEY ZONES – SUPPORT Support 1: 6,720–6,740 This is Friday’s late-day base and Sunday evening pivot zone, sitting right around current price. It lines up with the 1h equilibrium where price has been rotating. As long as ES holds above 6,720 on closing basis, buyers are defending the immediate balance and can make another push toward 6,780–6,800. Support 2: 6,650–6,670 This is the recent swing low on 4h and sits just above the 1.272 extension (~6,653). It’s the first real higher-timeframe demand pocket of this pullback. A clean tag and strong bounce here would look like a classic trend-pullback low forming. A sustained break under 6,650 would suggest the market isn’t done repricing and opens the door to the deeper fibs. Support 3: 6,595–6,610 This cluster includes the 1.618 extension (~6,597) and prior breakout structure from earlier in the trend. It’s the “deeper but still healthy” retrace area; if ES flushes into this band on bad data then snaps back, it can still preserve the weekly uptrend. Failing here would start to threaten the bullish structure and invite a test toward the prior weekly low. Support 4: 6,530–6,560 The 2.0 extension (~6,535) plus the weekly prior low / PML region. This is a major higher-timeframe floor. If ES ever gets here this week, the tape is likely under stress, but it also becomes the zone where large buyers usually test the waters for a bigger swing entry. A weekly close below ~6,530 would be the first real warning that the uptrend is morphing into something more corrective or even distributive. Support 5 (deeper swing): 6,300–6,350 Older weekly demand and prior quarterly low / PQL area. Not a base case for this week, but important to note as the “catastrophic” downside magnet if something truly breaks (data shock, earnings disaster, geopolitical flare-up). SETUPS – WEEK AHEAD IDEA PACK 1. Trend-pullback continuation long from support Location: 6,650–6,670 primary, 6,595–6,610 secondary. Trigger idea: Look for an overnight or early-week sweep into 6,650–6,670 that quickly rejects (long lower wick on 1h / 4h, strong reclaim back above 6,680). Ideally, this happens outside the heaviest data windows so it’s more order-flow driven than headline noise. If that fails and price drives into 6,595–6,610 instead, repeat the same logic there: washout, strong reaction, then a reclaim of 6,620–6,630 as confirmation that buyers stepped in. Upside path from this setup: First target is the 6,780–6,800 cap. If that gives way, next magnet is 6,840–6,880, then a possible extension run at the 6,900–6,930 recent high area. Later in the week, if macro tailwinds show up, this move can stretch toward 7,000 and, in an optimistic case, into the 7,100+ fib cluster. Risk management conceptually: From a swing perspective, the “line in the sand” for this idea is under 6,595. A clean daily close below that level would invalidate the shallow-pullback idea and suggest we are heading toward 6,530–6,560 or lower. 2. Short-term fade from the 6,840–6,880 / 6,900 pocket Location: 6,840–6,880 first, 6,900–6,930 as extension. Trigger idea: If ES trades up into 6,840–6,880 ahead of Fed minutes or the Nvidia/Walmart prints and shows tired price action (long upper wicks on 15m/1h, loss of intraday momentum, failure to hold above 6,860), that area is attractive for a tactical short aiming back toward the 6,780–6,750 pivot. A more aggressive fade is possible into 6,900–6,930 if the first test breaches 6,880 but immediately stalls at the prior high. Downside path from this setup: First magnet is the 6,780–6,800 band, then the balance base at 6,720–6,740. If that gives way on a macro shock, sellers can push for a retest of 6,650–6,670. Risk management conceptually: For shorts initiated at 6,840–6,880, a protective stop makes sense above 6,910–6,920. Fades taken into a full sweep of 6,900–6,930 should respect a hard stop above ~6,950; above that, risk of a proper breakout toward 7,000+ increases sharply. 3. Range-trade scalps inside 6,720–6,780 While ES is stuck inside this intraday box, there is room for mean-reversion trades: buying dips into 6,720–6,730 and selling pushes into 6,770–6,780 with tight intraday stops. This is a lower-quality idea compared to the bigger levels, but it’s relevant if Monday and early Tuesday stay choppy while everyone waits for the meat of the calendar mid-week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
HOW-TO: Analyze Support, Resistance & Short-Term DirectionHOW-TO: Analyze Support, Resistance & Short-Term Direction Using Volume Scope Pro (1H Example) Introduction This HOW-TO explains how to use the Volume Scope Pro — Order Flow Volume Analysis indicator to identify support and resistance, interpret order-flow signals such as absorption and distribution, evaluate buyer/seller strength, and determine a short-term market bias on the 1-hour timeframe. 1 — Chart Settings & Data Inputs • Main timeframe: 1H • LTF (Low-Timeframe data): 15-second volume blocks • LTF coverage: ~115 bars • Instrument: MES1! (CME Micro E-mini S&P 500) This setup provides a high-resolution view of order flow behind each hourly candle by aggregating ultra-low timeframe volume behavior. 2 — Buy & Sell Volume Behavior BUY Side: • Buy Current Amount ≈ 18.539K • 20-period Buy Average ≈ 54.044K → Buyers are significantly below their normal activity level. → Interpretation: Buyers are NOT supporting current price levels. SELL Side: • Sell Current Amount ≈ 17.073K • 20-period Sell Average ≈ 50.857K → Sellers are also below average, but buyer weakness is far more pronounced. Summary: In higher timeframes like 1H, lack of buyer activity is often more important than strong selling. Here, buyers are too weak to create a sustained bottom. 3 — Trend Angle Convergence & Divergence (Trend θ) BUY: • Price vs Buy Volume (3 and 20 periods) = Divergent → Price attempts to hold or bounce are NOT backed by buyer aggression. SELL: • Price vs Sell Volume (3-period) = Convergent → Short-term movement is driven by sellers, strengthening the bearish bias. 4 — Delta Analysis • Current Delta ≈ +1.46K • Global Delta (100 candles): – Positive Δ Sum ≈ 273.812K – Negative Δ Sum ≈ 225.671K Interpretation: Although short-term delta is positive and long-term delta slightly favors buyers, the price structure does NOT reflect bullish dominance. This type of delta behavior often indicates absorption rather than a trend shift — meaning buyers are active but ineffective at moving price. 5 — Support & Resistance Zones (SR Engine) Volume Scope Pro identifies two main zones: • Resistance Zone: 6880.75 ~ 6885.25 • Support Zone: 6707.75 ~ 6766.75 Current Position: Price is holding inside the upper boundary of the Support Zone. There was a minor bounce, but the reaction lacked strength and failed to break structural highs. 6 — Order-Flow Overlay Signals (OB / Distribution / Absorption) • Multiple OB and Distribution labels appear near upper structure → clear signs of supply, selling pressure, and exhaustion at highs. • OS and ABS signals at support did not result in meaningful continuation → weak follow-through from buyers. Combined with weak buy volume, the market shows bearish intent. 7 — Short-Term Projection Given: ✓ Weak buy volume compared to averages ✓ Sellers showing short-term dominance ✓ Converging sell-side angles ✓ Price reacting weakly to support ✓ Strong supply clusters above ✓ Delta showing ineffective buying → Short-term bearish continuation is the more probable scenario. As shown on the chart, the Short Position tool highlights: • Entry around the upper support boundary • Stop above the minor pullback high • Target near the lower support boundary This forms a clear, structured bearish setup with defined R:R. Disclaimer This publication is for educational purposes only. Volume Scope Pro does not guarantee profit or certainty of market direction. Traders must perform independent risk management and verification at all times.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by ata_sabanci
I Broke My Own Rule & Paid $515 for It | Day 70 RecapLost $515 today trading S&P Futures, and it was 100% on me. After promising yesterday that I’d trade small, I accidentally entered ES instead of MES overnight — and that mistake cost me $800 in minutes. The rest of the day was a slow crawl back from that emotional hit. It’s a painful reminder that discipline > direction. The market wasn’t the problem — my execution was. Above 6840 stays bullish, below 6815 turns bearish. We’ll see if this selloff stabilizes or extends into week close.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3
ES - hourly chart Monthly boxes are pink Weekly boxes in grey they frame the price action and show high, low and median ranges. using a fib based trend tool to find targets to the upside. T.A explained - BackSide (BS) FrontSide (FS) Inverse BS (Inv.BS) Inverse FS (Inv.FS) BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines. The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Monthly timeframe is color pink weekly grey daily is red 4hr is orange 1hr is yellow 15min is blue 5min is green if they are shown. strength favors the higher timeframe. 2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by StudyGuideTA
Trendline Support hitPrice has pulled back into a key technical zone and is now testing a long-term rising trendline that has held multiple times throughout the past several weeks. This trendline has acted as a structural support area, aligning with prior swing lows and validating the broader uptrend structure. Today’s decline pushed ES directly into this support, and the reaction here will likely determine the directional bias for the next session. What I’m Watching: Reaction to the trendline on the next retest Whether volume confirms a true bounce or a breakdown Price behavior as it re-approaches the highlighted green zone, which has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance If we close under 6680 today, All is lost and we will drop a lot more.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
6
ES - November 14th - Daily Trade PlanNovember 14th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:45am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You can read the trade plan from yesterday and see that we had a couple of quick flush and reclaims at the levels outlined, but we did not see any follow through to take us higher. That was our first big red day in a while and as I have stated many times that when price is flushing down, you DO NOT step in the way and try to pick bottoms. Let price reclaim a core level and let it accept that level by 4-5pts and then enter as you see structure building. I wrote yesterday on my note at 3pm - We are coming into the 0.618 retracement of November low to high that is at 6747. This could be a low that produces the short squeeze into the end of the day. IF price does not close above 6765, we will probably have to test 6706 then 6654 in the coming days. PPI tomorrow at 8:30am and I expect more volatility. Price has to reclaim 6890 to keep price moving to ATH's. IF we close below 6654 this week, it would be bearish and could represent a broader pull back in the coming weeks/months. When price sells off like it has today, we will get a squeeze. Just don't know when. We did get a 30pt bounce at 6747, closed the day at 6761 and price was a magnet to the resistance of 6775. We lost yesterday's low after the European open and we have been moving lower and are currently at 6713 in the overnight session. I have mentioned many times that with such a strong sell off, we will get an equally strong squeeze. Since we have PPI at 8:30am, we could get that squeeze today. My job is not to guess when that will happen, but to take a trade one the recovery of a strong level that can help price squeeze higher. Key Levels Today - 1. Flush and reclaim of 6713 (Current Low as I type this) 2. Reclaim of 6731 3. Reclaim of 6746 (Yesterday's low and highest quality level) Below we have the weekly low of 6691-95 or 6654. Any flush of these levels and reclaim should give us a very strong squeeze similar to last week's Friday flush! Patience will be key today and IF price finds a strong low today, we will see it and need to react in real-time. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White Levels are previous day's session High/Low
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Market Crashed — I Stayed Calm & Made $338 | Day 69 RecapMade $338.44 today trading S&P Futures on a day where almost everything was red. The market opened with a bearish structure, and even without big headlines, selling pressure stayed strong all morning. I decided to wait for the 6750 zone — a strong technical support — and caught a clean dead cat bounce from there. This session reminded me that sometimes, less is more. Trade small, trade smart, and don’t let overconfidence creep in after a winning streak. Above 6850 = bullish, below 6825 = bearish. I’ll be watching for follow-through if we retest support again.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
2
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups, for Fri (Nov 14th) Today’s session revealed a marked risk-off sentiment as the market began to discipline leading sectors, notably large-cap tech, AI, semiconductors, and high-beta growth stocks. This correction coincided with a reassessment of expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing and an environment defined by unequal economic data in the wake of the record shutdown. Despite the abrupt decline, the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) remains in a pullback phase within a broader uptrend, still functioning within a weekly premium and supply zone. This movement exhibits characteristics typical of a sharp correction and repositioning rather than the definitive onset of a bear market. Importantly, prices have yet to break below the last significant daily higher-low region, weekly market structure continues to show constructive signs, and the “stress indicators” monitored by institutional investors are elevated but not yet at levels indicative of a crisis. Dashboard Context Volatility: Implied volatility surged today, with equity volatility pushing above previously complacent levels, albeit the term structure remains predominantly upward-sloping rather than inverted. This nuance is critical; while funds are investing more for protection and short-term hedges, the volatility landscape does not yet suggest a disorderly liquidation phase. Options Positioning: The index and overall put/call ratios have transitioned from a state of complacency to caution, reflecting increased demand for hedging. However, levels are not yet extreme enough to signal panic. Skew is elevated, indicating that investors are bidding for downside protection, although it remains within the upper bounds of a normal range. This suggests that while major institutions are leaning into protective strategies and tactical downside plays, the broader market is not universally positioned for a crash. Breadth: The internal damage today was notable, with decliners outpacing advancers significantly across major exchanges. This shift in breadth oscillators from positive to negative in a single session points to a broad-based distribution rather than a narrow selloff concentrated in a few prominent names. Historically, such internal damage requires several sessions for a market to recover. Credit and Funding: High-yield spreads have widened modestly from recent lows, and high-yield ETFs have pulled back from their peaks. Nevertheless, there are no current signs of a credit crisis. Spreads remain well within ranges that do not indicate severe stress, and funding markets continue to operate smoothly. Provided that credit conditions stay stable, current equity weakness is likely more reflective of a valuation and positioning reset than systemic risk. Cross-Asset Risk: The crypto market experienced a sharp selloff, while global equity indices broadly fell. This behavior confirms a classic cross-asset risk-off scenario, as investors reduced exposure to the highest-beta, most speculative areas while simultaneously de-leveraging from U.S. equity leaders. Conversely, traditional defensive stocks and segments of quality value showed relative resilience, a behavior consistent with a managed de-risking rather than an all-encompassing liquidation. In summary, the dashboard indicates a shift from “overbought complacency” to a higher-volatility, risk-off environment. However, we have yet to enter a full-scale, credit-driven bear market. This context is essential for interpreting today’s decline in the E-mini S&P 500. Multi-Timeframe Technical Structure (Weekly → Daily → 4H → 1H) Weekly: The E-mini remains in an upward trajectory, printing higher highs and higher lows. Prices have retreated from a premium zone established at recent highs. The current weekly bar suggests rejection, yet critically, price levels remain comfortably above the last key weekly higher low near the 6,000 mark. Weekly momentum, previously overstretched to the upside, is rolling over, signaling a potential cooling phase – likely a period of consolidation or corrective drift rather than immediate trend failure. Daily: On the daily chart, the ES has formed a distinct upper range beneath a weak high. Today’s trading produced a significant red candle, indicating a drop from the upper range back toward its center. The prior swing low around 6,620–6,580 remains intact, but the daily oscillator shows mild bearish divergence relative to the last high – a common occurrence in maturing upswings. This situation conveys the message of “bullish but extended, now in corrective mode,” rather than a definitive shift to a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. 4-Hour: The 4-hour structure has entered a short-term downtrend. A lower high was established in the 6,900–6,920 range, leading to an impulsive sell-off toward demand around 6,730–6,700. This selloff exhibited characteristics of liquidation: substantial red candles, minimal counter-rotation, and strong volume. The 4-hour oscillator shows bearish pressure but is beginning to flatten near support, consistent with an early basing attempt after a sharp sell-off, though additional downside remains possible if negative overnight flows persist. 1-Hour: The 1-hour chart portrays today’s price movement as a decisive liquidation wave. Today's market decline was driven by three converging factors. First, we saw a mix of valuation adjustments and crowded positioning. Sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and large-cap growth stocks had experienced significant upward momentum. As a result, profit-taking and forced de-leveraging became evident, especially when the largest index components corrected. This simultaneous adjustment made it challenging for the overall index to hold its ground. Second, the narrative surrounding interest rates and policy has shifted. Recent commentary from the Federal Reserve has adopted a more cautious tone regarding the pace and scale of future interest rate cuts. With inflation remaining above target and some data being impacted by the government shutdown, policymakers appear hesitant to endorse the market's most optimistic expectations for easing. This recalibration towards a "higher for longer" mindset is detrimental to long-duration growth equities and affects the valuations assigned to market leaders. Third, while the government shutdown has concluded, the subsequent rhythm of the economic calendar has been disrupted. Several critical data releases have been delayed or are now under scrutiny, prompting investors to navigate through somewhat erratic information. In this context, there has been a notable reluctance to take on risk at elevated valuations without clearer data confirmation. Consequently, we are witnessing a trend of de-risking, characterized by a swift rotation from expensive stocks into cash, defensive positions, and protective strategies. The outcome has been a pronounced selloff, exhibiting broad downside movement and a surge in volatility. Importantly, this occurred without significant turmoil in credit or funding markets, suggesting that we are dealing with a valuation reset rather than a systemic crisis. Looking ahead, the question arises: Is this the beginning of a more substantial downtrend or merely a temporary flush? From a structural perspective, the market has yet to breach the typical thresholds that signal the onset of a major downtrend. The previous daily higher low remains in place, the weekly uptrend is still intact, and we have not observed the combination of lower highs and lower lows that would signify a broader bearish phase. Currently, we are witnessing a rejection from a weekly premium/supply zone, with momentum weakening at both daily and weekly levels. Additionally, there is a clear lower high alongside a liquidation move visible on the four-hour chart, which aligns with the expected behavior during the early stages of a significant correction following an extended rally. As it stands, the prevailing view is that we are experiencing a sharp corrective phase or volatility spike within the upper range of the ongoing uptrend. While the risk of a more profound correction is heightened, particularly if the support range of 6,600 to 6,535 is breached, the current indicators do not yet suggest a completed market top or a fully developed bearish trend. A genuine trend transition would likely require: – a decisive break of S3 and a failed retest from below; – a sustained period of weak breadth rather than a single-day air pocket; – and, on the macro side, a clear deterioration in credit and funding conditions alongside a persistent inversion of the equity volatility term structure. At present, those conditions are not fully in place. Level-KZ Execution Framework for Tomorrow Asia/London Participation: If overnight trade pushes the ES down into the 6,710–6,680 range and subsequently prints a rejection with a definitive 15-minute close above that zone, consider it a tactical bounce location. This could target a move back toward the 6,770–6,800 region. Given the event risk, participation should be smaller than usual and approached as preparatory rather than primary risk. PPI Window (08:30–09:15 ET): The initial 15–30 minutes post-PPI release should be regarded as a discovery phase. If the first impulse upward drives the price into R1/R2 but then closes back below 6,780–6,800 with upper wicks and a failure of the 5-minute structure, it sets up a potential short from the underside of the shelf. Targets for this short could be at 6,720 and then 6,680. Conversely, if the initial market reaction results in a drop to S2/S3 that quickly wicks back and closes above that zone on a 15-minute chart, it presents a tactical bounce long toward the 6,740–6,780 area. The decisive 15-minute close after the data release will provide clarity on which side gains control for the session. NY AM Kill Zone (09:30–11:00 ET): For short positions, the optimal area remains a rejection from 6,780–6,815 after the PPI reaction is digested. A long upper wick and a return close within that range on a 15-minute chart, paired with a failure in the 5-minute attempts to maintain above, supports a short position. Stops should be placed just above the rejection high, with profit targets initially toward 6,720 and subsequently toward 6,680. Conversely, for long opportunities, an ideal scenario involves a constructive reaction from the 6,700–6,660 support band. This would look for a higher low on the 15-minute chart, reclaiming and holding above 6,700, while sellers falter at S1. In this case, stops would belong below the reaction low, targeting 6,770 and 6,810. Standard A-tier protocol applies: anticipate at least 2R to the first target based on a 15-minute-anchored stop, limit attempts per level, and enforce daily risk guardrails. NY PM Window (13:30–16:00 ET): Should the ES remain constrained between 6,700 and 6,800 by early afternoon, the trade dynamic typically shifts from discovery to mean-reversion. Thus, the afternoon should primarily focus on managing existing positions from the morning rather than initiating new aggressive plays. Fresh entries based on trending strategies should only be considered if there is a clear breakout from the established intraday range, whether below S3 or above R3, accompanied by confirmation. Big-Picture Takeaway: Fundamentally, today’s decline indicates a reassessment of overly optimistic growth and AI valuations, along with near-term Federal Reserve easing, partly prompted by a complicated post-shutdown data environment. Technically, the ES is retreating from a weekly premium into various support zones while maintaining the core bullish structure. Stress indicators favored by large professional investors—such as volatility, options positioning, breadth, credit, and cross-asset behavior—suggest a serious risk-off event has occurred, but they don't exhibit the persistent stress and credit strain typically seen before a full bear market materializes. As long as the ES decisively holds above the 6,600–6,535 zone and doesn’t reject that area from below, the higher-probability play in the coming sessions is a volatile corrective range, offering tactical opportunities to sell rallies into resistance and buy deeper, well-defined demand zones—always bearing in mind the heightened volatility and macro event risks on the calendar.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
6
TOTAL - Hits October 10 Support = Dip Buy OpportunityTOTAL, NQ1 Crypto1 Surprise surprise - crypto has its scary face on yet again. But its good to be aware that this is happening while stock indexes are dumping. As I covered in the previous S&P Futures post (linked), stock indexes have been in a fairly long and volatile sideways correction since the Trump Tariff threat back in October (arrow). And a 3 wave correction has already completed. So a next wave up may already be underway for S&P and this could be a very volatile pull back in an uptrend. If it is (it could also not be 😅) then TOTAL may continue to move with stock indexes and if a bounce comes then crypto may also bounce. Really, crypto can dump hard and all be fine so long as stock indexes are also dumping. - It is when crypto dumps alone that there is more cause for concern. So, assuming that stock indexes have not entered a major correction then this can be a nice dip buy opportunity in crypto. Notice that TOTAL is now hitting support from the October 10 - mega smackdown. This is the moment for contrarians to buy the dip as TOTAL hits this key liquidity structure. Its very dangerous of course but the moment to strike is here 🤨. This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by dRends35
ES - Buy The Dip ?NQ1 Indexes have begun to slump with impulse today. Previously S&P bounced hard from the 1:1 extension. That completed a 3 wave correction where the first impulse wave down began after news of a Trump tariff threat against China was reported on. So with plenty of impulsive chop for some time, this current wave down may well be the tail end of a fairly long correction phase. Notice that S&P Futures has slumped below support - into higher liquidity. This could well trigger a reversal. If it does then we may be on the brink of the next bounce and into the next bullish phase. Stocks / assets showing strength may do well if a bounce arrives. And this may also be an opportunity to catch knives in stocks in confluence zones of support / RSI / ratio 🧐.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by dRends35
A Pitchfork For The LEAPI enjoy a good challenge. Probably more than is strictly healthy. That’s why I jumped into the LEAP. This time I’ve actually got enough hours in the day to show up for the fight. I’m genuinely curious whether I can trade my way into the top 50, even though I’ve already committed a few strategic blunders that shaved off some perfectly good profit. But that’s trading in the real world, isn’t it? A comedy of precision errors. My plan is simple: stick to the Andrews Pitchfork framework and nothing else. The goal isn’t just to place well; it’s to demonstrate how much of an edge this tool offers when you use its rules properly. Don’t wish me luck - I’m aiming to get there by skill and stubbornness.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by HowToChart
3
What's going on for ES at the 6,875 price level?Hey Trading Fam 👋, Hope everyone’s been crushing it lately! 💪 Time for a quick mid-week review of the ES price action — and wow, there’s a lot going on around that 6,875 level 👀 Yes, the market’s been bullish over the past month (with a few healthy pullbacks), but the big question now is: Can we keep climbing higher, or is momentum running out? Walk with me as we break down the recent price moves, key levels to watch, and what I’m expecting heading into the next New York session. Let’s dive in! 🚀📈
CME_MINI:MES1!
by MarketsByLee_