US30 Bullish Setup: From Pullback to Measured Moves📊 The US30 (Dow Jones) is trending bullish on the 4-hour chart ⏰. We’ve just seen a pullback into equilibrium ⚖️, and I’ve taken a long position 📈. In the video 🎥, I break down how I set my targets 🎯 using the Fibonacci retracement 🔢 — first identifying the equilibrium pullback, then projecting measured moves above for profit targets 🚀. (Not financial advice ⚠️)
Trade ideas
Will US30 Reach A New Record High After Today's NFP?Fundamental approach:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) rose this week amid cooling US labor signals that reinforced expectations for a Sep Fed rate cut, while upbeat ISM services activity tempered growth concerns.
- ADP private payrolls slowed and jobless claims ticked higher, bolstering bets for easier policy ahead of today's NFP release. This kept risk appetite supported through Thu record-setting close in broader indices.
- The ISM Services PMI accelerated to 52.0 in Aug, with stronger business activity and new orders, but continued employment contraction, a mix consistent with disinflationary growth that equity markets favored. Salesforce (CRM) underperformed on a cautious revenue outlook even as rate-cut hopes lifted cyclicals within the Dow complex.
- Looking ahead, the index could extend gains if payrolls and earnings metrics cool without signaling a hard landing, as this may cement Fed easing later this month. Today's jobs report and subsequent Fed communications could be key catalysts for rate expectations and index momentum.
Technical approach:
- US30 bounced up from retesting the ascending channel's lower bounce, confluence with the support at 45000, and EMA21.
- If US30 breaches the resistance at around 45700, the index may accelerate to retest the confluencing area of several Fibo Extension levels at around 46680-46900.
- On the contrary, closing below 45000 may prompt a further correction to retest EMA78.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
DowJones Key Trading Levels ahead of US Employment DataKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 45766
Resistance Level 2: 45920
Resistance Level 3: 46080
Support Level 1: 45050
Support Level 2: 44900
Support Level 3: 44730
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US30 UPDATE: Pre-Post Potential 4 NFPDear Friends in Trading,
1) NFP Today - Be safe.
2) TIP - Post NFP Mondays: (Applies to all instruments - Forex, Indices & Metals)
-----"ASIA + LONDON SESSION's PRICE ACTION IS BIG AND OPEN MOST OF THE TIME"-----
Keynote:
MARKET STRUCTURE = TREND = INTACT
I have highlighted a few possible support and resistance levels,
and potential targets.
Let me know if anything is unclear?
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
DOW/US30 - BEST STRATEGY OF THE YEAR - LETS GOTeam, carefully plan for tonight on NON FARM PAYROLL
HERE IS THE DATA
Weekly jobless claims increase 8,000 to 237,000
Continuing claims fall 4,000 to 1.940 million
Private payrolls increase 54,000 in August
Trade deficit widens 32.5% to $78.3 billion in July
Last month, the same day, market drop for two days over 1000 points.
PLEASE CAREFULLY structure this - DO SMALL VOLUME FOR THIS ONLY
Short now at 45645-45655 - I think the market look EXHAUSTED
STOP LOSS tight at 45680 or give more room at 45720
Target 1 at 45525-45500 - take 60%-70% partial and bring stop loss to BE
Target 2 at 45425-45380
OR WAIT FOR THIS ZONE TO KILL THE MARKET - 45800-45900 - stop loss at 46050
Target 1 - 45650 -45620
Target 2 - 45550-45520
LETS GO
Dow Jones Index Wave Analysis – 4 September 2025- Dow Jones Index reversed from key support level 45000.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 45765.00
Dow Jones Index recently reversed from the support area between the key support level 45000.00 (former strong resistance, which has been reversing the price from the end of 2024), 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous short-term correction ii.
Given the strong daily uptrend, Dow Jones Index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 45765.00 (which reversed the Index in August).
Dow Jones (DJI) – 1H Technical OutlookDow Jones (DJI) – 1H Technical Outlook
Bias: Bearish while below 45,450.
Key Resistance: 45,350 – 45,450 (failure to break above keeps sellers in control).
Immediate Supports:
45,100
44,980 – 44,860
Major support at 44,700
📉 Primary Scenario:
If price remains capped below 45,450, a downward move towards 44,700 is likely after a minor corrective bounce.
📈 Alternative Scenario:
A breakout and sustained close above 45,500 would invalidate the bearish view and open the door for a rally towards 45,800 – 46,000.
US30 UpdateNext move on the way, focus on proper risk management & stay disciplined. Wishing you successful trades...!
Confluences And Key Reason:
1. Price creates bullish channel.
2. Market price break bullish channel toward downside.
3. Fresh supply + order flow still in pending.
4. If this supply is valid than we see price further move downside.
This is not a financial advice take it with your own risk. In this case confirmation is very important. If price give confirmation than we open our trades. Let's see how it will work.
US30 Pullback Toward 44,600 Within Ongoing UptrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around the 44,600 zone. Dow Jones (US30) is trading in an uptrend, with price currently correcting toward this key support/resistance level.
Structure: The broader bias remains bullish, but price is pulling back after recent highs.
Key level in focus: 44,600 — a significant area where buyers may look to step in and continue the upward trend.
Fundamentals: Market sentiment remains broadly supportive for equities, with risk appetite steady as investors weigh U.S. economic data and central bank policy outlook.
Trade safe,
Joe.
Dow Jones buy to 46000Fundamentals
- Fed rate cut this September and November, supporting equities growth. Lower interest rates means lower borrowing cost.
- Bond yields down due to government debt to high. Lower yields reduce the discount rate on future earnings, make stocks more attractive than bonds
- Tech giants Google and Apple lifting the indexes performance recently
Technical (Price Action)
- Support level at 44809.3 refined to 44748.9 30 min support
US30 – 1H | Testing Rejection Block & LTF Confirmation
Dow Jones is reacting from a rejection block with lower-timeframe confirmation showing. Market structure shift suggests possible retrace setups.
**Bullish Scenario:**
* Hold above 44,950–45,000 zone (OB & FVG support)
* LTF confirmation aligns with rejection block
* Upside targets: 45,320 swing high → 45,520 strong high
**Bearish Scenario:**
* Lose 44,950 and break below 44,900 P1D Low
* Continuation toward 44,700 breaker block → 44,680 strong low
* Deep downside if OB rejection fails
**Key Levels:**
* Resistance: 45,320 / 45,520 / 45,600
* Support: 44,950 / 44,900 / 44,700 / 44,680
💬 Will US30 hold rejection block for upside push, or break lower into the breaker block?
DOW JONES 4H BUY SIGNAL
DJI bouncing on the Channel Up bottom + oversold 4H RSI (first since Aug 04) ✅.
Every dip under the 4H MA50 has been the best entry — same setup now.
As long as the 1D MA50 holds, trend stays bullish 📈.
🎯 Short-term target: 46,100 (+2.67%)
Kaizo precision. Sniper buy zone activated. 🥷🔥
DOW JONES Buy opportunity on oversold 4H RSI.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 31 High and yesterday hit its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and rebounded.
Every short-term break just below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) of this pattern since August 11, has been the most optimal buy opportunity. Technically as long as the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) holds, the medium-term trend remains bullish.
Given also that the 4H RSI made an oversold rebound, first since August 04, we have a strong buy signal currently, which based on the previous Bullish Legs of the pattern, can rise by at least +2.67%. As a result, our short-term Target is 46100.
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US30 WILL BLEEDWe are entering a short (sell) trade on US30 because the market failed to create new highs and reversed from a strong resistance/supply zone with good breakout, Structure and momentum now favor the downside. Targets are set at 44,770 and 44,020, with a stop above 45,740 to manage risk.
Dow Jones Falls from Record HighsOver the past two trading sessions, the Dow Jones index has declined by just over 0.7%, with selling pressure remaining constant. This move has been tied to the rebound in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which climbed to 4.27%, reducing the short-term appeal of equities. In addition, investors are awaiting the release of U.S. employment data at the end of the week, as the results could influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions.
Uptrend Remains Intact
Despite the recent pullback, the short-term declines have not been strong enough to break the uptrend that has remained in place for the past several months. This technical structure continues to be the most relevant in the short term. Unless selling pressure consolidates over more sessions, the upward trend is likely to remain dominant in the coming days.
Technical Indicators
RSI: although the RSI remains above the 50 level, it has begun to show a downward slope in the short term, which could indicate a shift in market momentum. If the line continues to decline, selling pressure could become more relevant in the sessions ahead.
MACD: the MACD histogram continues to hover around the 0 line, indicating that the average strength of the moving averages remains in neutral territory. This highlights the lack of clear direction in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
45,746 points – Relevant Resistance: corresponds to the Dow Jones record highs. A sustained breakout above this level could pave the way for a continuation of the uptrend.
45,023 points – Near-Term Support: coincides with recent lows and may act as a barrier for potential short-term pullbacks.
43,098 points – Critical Support: aligns with the 100- and 200-period simple moving averages. A move down to this zone could confirm a break in the uptrend and give way to a dominant bearish bias.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst