US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Bullish Movement Confirmed?!Following a recent bearish movement, the 📈DXY has corrected to a previously breached key structural level.
I have identified two significant bullish confirmations after this test: the price has violated the neckline of a double bottom pattern and the resistance line of a falling parallel channel pattern.
Both breakouts suggest a high probability of a bullish trend resumption.
The market will probably continue its upward trajectory and reach the 99.70 level in the near term.
Trade ideas
US Dollar: Look For Buys As The Pullback Ends!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Nov. 17 - 21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD was in retracement last week. It looks like that may be ending, and a new bullish leg could potential start early this week.
Wait patiently for the bullish shift in the market at a key poi... like the Weekly +FVG highlighted in the video. The 1H TF should make this obvious, and look to long the USD against its currency counterparts.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Dollar Index Pulls Back from a Key HighDollar Index Pulls Back from a Key High
As the Dollar Index (DXY) chart shows, the index is currently trading below its 5 November high, which formed after a false bullish breakout (marked by an arrow) above the 1 August peak — a scenario previously outlined in the post “The Dollar Index Near a Key High.”
According to Trading Economics, trader sentiment at the start of the week is being shaped by expectations of comments from ECB and Federal Reserve officials regarding the outlook for monetary policy.
A statement has already come from Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who noted that financial conditions in the country are now close to a neutral rate — one that neither stimulates nor restrains economic growth. The Australian dollar strengthened following his remarks.
Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart
The previously drawn ascending channel remains relevant for the Dollar Index, with several important technical features:
→ The channel median has switched its role from support to resistance (as indicated by its colour change from blue to red).
→ The QL line, which divides the lower half of the channel into quarters, is currently acting as support for the DXY.
→ The index has fallen below the psychological level of 100 points.
It appears that the 3.7% rally in the Dollar Index since mid-September has attracted sellers, while late buyers may have been trapped near the top of the recent move.
Additional support may be found near 99.45, where a double-top pattern (A–B) previously formed. However, if this level is breached, the DXY could extend its decline towards the lower boundary of the channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
DXY - Short-Term Bounce, But the Bigger Drop Isn’t Done YetThe Dollar Index is forming a small corrective up-move on the 4H chart. This current rise still looks weak and is unlikely to last long. As long as price stays below the major zones above, the broader structure suggests one more push lower before any meaningful bullish reversal.
Short-term volatility is expected, but the higher-timeframe pressure remains to the downside. We’ll be watching for a final drop to complete the structure before the next big move.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
Bullish momentum to extend?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot, which is a pullback support, and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 99.11
1st Support: 98.63
1st Resistance: 100.27
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Dollar Index: Range-Bound But Bullish? 3 Scenarios to WatchThe Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) is in a global range, within which there is a bullish daily order flow. This flow is manifesting as a sequential mitigation of, and reversal from, imbalances and manipulation zones.
On November 5th, a deviation above the global range occurred, sweeping external liquidity. This was engineered by a manipulation in the form of a Daily Order Block . Following this, the index began a corrective decline and is now approaching a POI (Demand Zone) and potential Fibonacci reversal levels.
Long positions can be considered from one of these levels, targeting the upper boundary of the range (the mitigation of the Daily OB).
SCENARIO 1: Requires price to find acceptance above the 50% level upon reaching it and mitigating the Demand Zone.
SCENARIO 2: If this level is broken, the next 61.8% level (also inside the Demand Zone) may act as support.
SCENARIO 3: If this level is also broken, a liquidity sweep of the Oct 28 low is highly probable, which would be accompanied by a test of the 78.6% Fib level .
The entry condition for a long setup from each level is confirmed acceptance above it and the beginning of a bullish order flow on a lower timeframe .
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The principles and conditions for forming the manipulation zones I show in this trade idea are detailed in my educational publication, which was chosen by TradingView for the "Editor's Picks" category and received a huge amount of positive feedback from this insightful trading community. To better understand the logic I've used here and the general principles of price movement in most markets from the perspective of institutional capital, I highly recommend checking out this guide if you haven't already. 👇
P.S. This is not a prediction of the exact price direction. It is a description of high-probability setups that become valid only if specific conditions are met when the price reaches the marked POI. If the conditions are not met, the setups are invalid. No setup has a 100% success rate, so if you decide to use this trade idea, always apply a stop-loss and proper risk management. Trade smart.
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NFP news for tom analysis NFP – meaning Non-Farm Payrolls
It’s the monthly report of jobs created in the US.
When NFP is high, it means many new jobs were added — which signals a strong economy.
So when the economy is strong, the US dollar (DXY) also tends to strengthen.
When the dollar is strong, it usually correlates with other currencies like EURUSD and GBPUSD, and also Gold (though sometimes Gold doesn’t follow this correlation).
DXY key levels to look out for this week (WC 17/11)DXY key levels for the following week ahead.
Key fundamentals this week includes FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, NFP change along with unemployment rate on Thursday and to finish the week off on Friday- Manufacturing & Services PMI release on Friday.
DXY Pulls Back from 100 – A Healthy Correction, Not a Reversal1. What Happened Since Last Week
In last week’s DXY analysis, I warned that although the U.S. Dollar Index remains in a broader uptrend, the 100.00 level represents both a strong technical and psychological resistance that could trigger a short-term retracement.
That scenario played out almost perfectly — after a brief spike above 100, DXY rolled over and is now trading near 99.70.
2. Market Context
The pullback so far looks orderly, not impulsive, suggesting that this move is a correction within an ongoing bullish structure, rather than the start of a major reversal. The market is simply digesting gains after a move higher.
3. Technical Outlook
The area between 99.00 and 99.20 stands out as a key confluence support zone, combining horizontal structure with the up trend line. This is where I expect buyers to reemerge if the index continues to drift lower.
4. Trading Plan
If DXY dips into 99.00–99.20, I’ll look for signs of USD strength resuming — specifically by considering short setups on GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
5. Conclusion
The dollar remains in an uptrend, and this pullback appears to be healthy, not bearish. As long as DXY holds above 99.00, the broader bullish bias remains intact, and traders should prepare for a possible rebound in the next sessions. 💵
Bullish bounce off?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance resistance.
Pivot: 99.78
1st Support: 99.34
1st Resistance: 100.71
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Bretton Woods 2.0?Examining the long-term trend of TVC:DXY since the 1980s, we might be facing a staggering 40% reduction in valuation, potentially landing us around 60. If the US were to devalue the dollar this drastically, could it effectively erase the national debt? 🤔 Is Trump bold enough to consider such a move?
We know the FED is going to cut eventually, the question is when and by how much? Initial claims came in higher than estimated, with cracks beginning to show in the labor market, how much longer can JPow hold out?
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W47| D21 | Y25 |📅 Q4 | W47| D21 | Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY
DXY I Weekly / Monthly CLS I Pullback to 50% of the CLS rangeHi friends, new range created. As always we are looking for the manipulation in to the key level around the range. Don't forget confirmation switch from manipulation phase to the distribution phase to make the setup valid. Stay patient and enter only after change in order flow. If price reaches 50% of the range take partial or full close.
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If you don't know your statistics on large enough data sample. You don't know your probabilities of win rate once the losing streak happen and it happens to every strategy. You will start doubting, hesitating to take next trade because you don't know statistics of your losses. In the end you will be doubting strategy and then jump to different one. You will be in the endless loop for years, looking for new better strategy. 👊 Your ultimate goal as a trader is not to be a generalist who knows 10 000 patterns. But rather create one system with narrowed criteria of each element of the trade to remove subjective and emotional decisions as much as possible and stick to this system no matter what. Practice it 10 000 times become a MASTER.
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Trading is hard, but not impossible. I believe in you 💪
David Perk aka Dave Fx Hunter
DXY Bearish Setup- USD Weakness in Play..FINALLY! The DXY is showing a bearish bias, signaling potential USD weakness this week. Expect the following moves:
Bearish USD pairs:
USD/JPY (UJ): Selling pressure continues as USD loses momentum.
USD/CHF (UCHF): Weak USD drives the pair lower.
USD/CAD (UCAD): USD softness supports further downside.
Bullish non-USD pairs:
AUD/USD (AU): Strength in AUD pushes price higher.
EUR/USD (EU): EUR benefits from a weaker USD, moving up.
GBP/USD (GU): GBP rises as USD falls.
NZD/USD (NU): NZD continues upward momentum against USD.
Hashtags:
#Forex #DXY #USDWeakness #CurrencyTrading #ForexSetup #USDJPY #USDCHF #USDCAD #AUDUSD #EURUSD #GBPUSD #NZDUSD
SP500 Testing Do-Die Support Stocks are seeing a pretty strong and aggressive decline, interestingly right after Nvidia delivered earnings that beat expectations, so it looks like the market still wants to move lower as AI-related valuations in the tech sector are simply too high and the market needs a deeper retracement. What stands out is that the S&P 500 has now retraced perfectly back to that October 10th Friday gap, when we saw a massive 3.5% sell-off in just one session, so I’m wondering if this zone could act as an interesting support for a potential rebound.
Keep in mind that despite the weakness in stocks over the last few sessions, we are not seeing that much strength on the dollar as you would normally expect in risk-off; so if stocks rebound the dollar could also slow down, ideally around 100.35–100.65 where the upside could be limited at the upper side of a wedge formation. I really want to see how the market will close today, because if we get a positive reaction in stocks then we may have some reason for a bounce next week, but if not and the market fails to recover today, then I’m afraid we can see much lower levels on the S&P 500 while DXY invalidate the diagonal formation.
Dollar Index: Bullish Structure + Fed Expectations AligningDXY remains inside a well-defined ascending channel and is currently building structure above mid-channel support. With the Dec 10 Fed meeting approaching, the macro narrative may soon favor additional USD strength.
According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing:
55.6% probability the Fed holds rates
44.4% probability of a cut
A hold keeps U.S. yields supported and has historically provided short-term upside pressure on the Dollar Index.
Technical Outlook
Price is respecting the ascending channel
Current pullback sits on a key demand zone + channel support
Higher-timeframe supply is above, but continuation structure is intact
The October rate cut reaction formed a clean bullish trend leg — this could be the next impulsive wave
My Bias
I’m anticipating USD strength into — and potentially after — the December Fed meeting, especially if the Fed reiterates cautious, data-dependent language rather than confirming more cuts.
Bullish Thesis:
A Fed hold + risk-off repricing → upside continuation on DXY
Key Levels to Watch:
🔼 100.80
🔼 101.50 (major supply break target)
🔼 102.20+ if momentum accelerates
Invalidation:
A clean break below channel support + demand zone.
Trading Idea: DXY — Potential Reversal PointsTrading Idea: DXY — Potential Reversal Points
Technical Overview
The Dollar Index has formed a significant resistance level, from which price has moved toward the first high-volume zone. The chart highlights three potential areas of volume concentration, each capable of acting as a reaction point.
Key Zones
Zone 1 — The nearest high-volume area, serving as the first potential support level.
Zone 2 — An intermediate volume accumulation area.
Zone 3 — The most compelling zone, featuring an unfilled gap. The presence of this gap creates an additional price magnet, as markets tend to fill price gaps over time.
Trading Scenario
The primary hypothesis anticipates price movement toward the third high-volume zone with the objective of filling the gap. This area is expected to produce the strongest reaction and potential reversal.
However, monitoring price behavior in the first two zones remains essential. A clear bounce with confirmation could indicate an earlier conclusion to the downward movement.
Risk Management
Wait for price reaction in each designated zone and seek confirming signals before entering a position. While the unfilled gap in the third zone increases the probability of price reaching that level, it does not guarantee a reversal.






















