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U.S. Dollar Index

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Do you believe that the US dollar will continue to fall or not?Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about the US dollar losing its status as a reserve currency. If you look at the chart of the USD index, you can see that it has decreased from its peak in 2022 (114.77) to its current level (96.37), which is a drop of around 16% over the past two and a half years. From a technical perspective, this drop makes sense, as the dollar's popularity had grown before, and it gained more than 62% between the lows of 2008 and the peaks in 2022. It would be difficult to list all the reasons why this increase occurred, but the main question now is whether the US currency will continue to decline or if it has a chance to recover. Before we answer that, let's first determine which wave the USD index is currently in. Based on my calculations, the growth cycle began at a level of 70.70 in the year 2008. Wave 1 represented an increase from 70.70 to 89.62 and took approximately two years to form. This wave was followed by Wave 2, which almost fully corrected Wave 1. Wave 3 went from 72.69 to 103.82 (and, as expected, the third wave beats on five waves of a lesser order), with Wave 3 representing 1.618% of Wave 1. Wave 4 gave a correction of 50% to the wavelength of Wave 3, in the short term, Wave 4 went beyond the maximum of Wave 1. But this rule makes sense only for non-marginal markets. Futures markets, with their high margins, can lead to short-term price spikes that would not occur in markets without borrowed funds, so an intersection is allowed, which is usually limited to daily or intraday price changes. Wave 4 lasted approximately 4.5 years, after which growth was continued by Wave 5. This raised the US dollar index to a level of 114.77, representing 1.272 percent of Wave 1. Therefore, it took approximately 14 years for the entire index to grow. At the moment, the current growth of 70.70-114.77 has been adjusted by approximately 38.2%, and visually, the ABC structure appears complete. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index has made a third contact with the support line, which has been in place since April 2011. Based on this, it is likely that we can anticipate some recovery in the position of the US currency. However, there is an important nuance that could overshadow medium-term predictions for the growth of the dollar. Specifically, it relates to the temporary adjustment parameter. As can be seen within the impulse wave, waves 2 and 4 were quite long in time, and therefore, the entire ABC pattern, in my view, occurred too quickly relative to the overall 14-year growth trend. And the following conclusions follow from this: 1) Yes, we can expect a rebound from the long-term upward support, and it is even possible that we will see a move in the US Dollar Index to 105-105.5 or 108, but it is unlikely to be higher. 2) However, it is also worth noting that the US dollar is likely to continue its downward trend for the foreseeable future. Because a 2.5-year pullback is clearly not enough to correct a 14-year growth, temporary movements should also be comparable, and the external zigzag may well become a double or triple zigzag and continue the pullback towards the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level to the growth wave of 70.70-114.77. That is, either towards 92.80-93, or towards 87.60. 3) Recently, analysts at deVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations, suggested that the US currency will decline by another 10% over the next 12 months. This forecast is supported by similar predictions from other major financial institutions, which foresee a decline in the US currency due to slower growth, aggressive rate cuts and disruptions to global trade. www.tradingview.com
TVC:DXY
by scavoanastasiia
Title: USDX 4H — expectations vs realityThe dollar index once again finds itself in a position where heroic posture doesn’t match reality. Price is capped at 97.85 right at the 0.382 Fibonacci level and every move higher quickly fades like a spark in the rain. If the breakout fails the road towards 97.24 and 96.90 seems far more realistic since the 0.618 retracement and demand zone are located there. Moving averages are pressing from above, volumes don’t support the bulls and technically the setup favors weakness rather than strength. Watching USD behavior every dip in gold silver euro and pound becomes a clear swing trading buy opportunity. Fundamentally the dollar is also under pressure as markets expect a dovish Fed, Treasury yields stay weak and risk appetite drives capital into other assets. In the end the greenback looks more like a tired runner than a sprinter ready to race.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by InvestWorld_777
Supply + liquidity hunt = breakout failure1.This breakout failed because it lacked consolidation strength and ran directly into a strong supply/FVG zone. 2.Liquidity above the trendline was hunted, trapping breakout buyers. 3.Momentum was weak, with no strong volume or follow-through. 4.The higher timeframe bias was still bearish, limiting upside potential. Without retest and acceptance above resistance, the move couldn’t sustain. ⚡ Key Points 📝Trendline break without consolidation. 📝Rejection from FVG / supply zone. 📝Liquidity grab above highs. 📝Weak momentum and no follow-through.
TVC:DXYEducation
by tradersboat
DXY | Major Cycle Peak – Is the Dollar Losing Its Grip?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be following a well-defined historical cycle, marking major peaks approximately every 15–20 years. If history repeats, the 2022 peak near 114 could signal the beginning of a multi-year dollar decline, impacting global markets, commodities, and currency pairs like EUR/USD. Historical Peaks & Reversals Examining past DXY cycles, we see: 969 Peak (~120): Followed by a prolonged decline into the 1970s. 1985 Peak (~165): Marked by the Plaza Accord, triggering a sharp dollar downtrend. 2001 Peak (~120): Led to a multi-year decline as the Fed shifted policies. 2022 Peak (~114): The most recent high—could it mark the next major reversal? Each peak historically aligns with aggressive Fed tightening cycles, followed by a shift towards easing policies, leading to a weaker dollar. With U.S. interest rates expected to plateau or decline, this pattern suggests a potential long-term bearish trend for the dollar. Implications of a Weaker Dollar Bullish for EUR/USD – A declining DXY typically strengthens the euro. Boost for Commodities – Gold, oil, and other dollar-denominated assets could rally. Stronger Emerging Markets – A softer dollar eases financial conditions globally. With DXY showing signs of a historical cycle peak, investors and traders should watch for confirmation of a multi-year downtrend, potentially reshaping global markets.
TVC:DXYShort
by adiyatcoto
$DXY: Dollar Strength or Dollar Dip?(1/9) Good afternoon, everyone! 🌞 DXY: Dollar Strength or Dollar Dip? With the DXY at 103.732, is the dollar flexing its muscles or ready to stumble? Let’s break it down! 🔍 (2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊 • Current Price: 103.732 as of Mar 14, 2025 💰 • Recent Move: Near recent levels, down from 110.18 peak (web data) 📏 • Sector Trend: Forex markets volatile, with trade and policy shifts 🌟 It’s a wild ride—dollar’s dancing on the edge! ⚙️ (3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈 • Role: Measures USD vs. euro, yen, pound, and more 🏆 • Influence: Drives forex and commodity prices globally ⏰ • Trend: Balancing U.S. policy and global demand, per data 🎯 King of currencies, but not without challengers! 🚀 (4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑 • Trade Tensions: U.S.-China tariff talks ongoing, per data 🌍 • Rate Cut Bets: Markets eyeing Fed moves, per posts on X 📋 • Market Reaction: Holding steady at 103.732 amid mixed signals 💡 Navigating a storm of global pressures! 🛳️ (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡ • Rate Cuts: Could weaken dollar if Fed acts, per X sentiment 🔍 • Trade Wars: Tariffs disrupting supply chains, per data 📉 • Global Growth: Slowdowns hitting demand for USD ❄️ It’s a tightrope—risks aplenty! 🛑 (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪 • Reserve Status: USD’s global dominance holds firm 🥇 • U.S. Economy: Still a powerhouse, supporting dollar value 📊 • Safe Haven: Attracts flows in uncertain times, per trends 🔧 Got muscle to flex when it counts! 🏦 (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️ • Weaknesses: Vulnerable to rate cuts, trade spats 📉 • Opportunities: Strong U.S. data could lift it higher, per outlook 📈 Can it hold the line or break out? 🤔 (8/9) – POLL TIME! 📢 DXY at 103.732—your take? 🗳️ • Bullish: 105+ soon, dollar rallies 🐂 • Neutral: Steady, risks balance out ⚖️ • Bearish: 100 looms, dollar dips 🐻 Chime in below! 👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯 The DXY’s 103.732 shows it’s steady but tested 📈. Trade wars and Fed moves could swing it either way—dips are our DCA gold 💰. Buy low, ride high—time’s the key! Gem or bust?
TVC:DXY
by DCAChampion
LIQUIDITY SWEEP ON DXY BEFORE FALLINGIn this weekend dollar index analysis presentation, my thesis is sideways liquidity sweep before a daily bear flag breakout to the downside. Momentum and RSI on the higher timeframe are still to downside suggesting more selling. Price is still trapped below all our moving averages confirming our trend bias. On the weekly time frame we have a couple of inverted candles at a fib 0.618 support zone suggesting a likely reversal from a higher low but I think these inverted candles are liquidity sweeps from the 0.382 fib retrace resistance level. The daily chart has a strong shooting star which initiated selling pressure to the current trendline support level at 97.432 where our last daily candle was a doji indecision or pause. In the coming first trading week of September, I will be watching for clear break of the trendline on the daily chart and a confirmed breakout of the fib 0.618 support zone at 97.187 for an initial target of 96.702 and final target of 96.155. Thank you and have a great profitable trading new month. Cheers!!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by RICHINVESTOR
DXY Strategy Unlocked — Will Bulls Control the Next Swing?⚡ US Dollar Index (DXY) Swing/Day Trade Setup ⚡ 💹 Asset: DXY (US Dollar Index) 📈 Plan: Bullish — Pending Order Strategy 📊 US Dollar Index (DXY) Real-Time Data Daily Change: +0.55 (+0.56%) Day's Range: 97.62 – 98.60 52-Week Range: 96.38 – 110.18 🔔 Trade Setup (Thief Plan) Breakout Entry: 98.800 ⚡ (Set TradingView alarm to catch the move in real time) Stop Loss: “Thief SL” @ 24,000.0 (only after breakout confirmation). 📝 Adjust your SL based on your strategy & risk appetite, Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s). Target: Resistance/overbought zone at 100.20 🎩 Escape target: 100.000 (take profits before market flips). 😰 Fear & Greed Sentiment Index Level: 64 (Greed) Market Mood: Moderately greedy, driven by: 📉 Net new 52-week highs vs. lows (bullish) 📊 VIX near averages (neutral) 🛡️ Bonds underperforming stocks (risk-on) 📈 Junk bond demand narrowing spreads (greed signal) 🌍 Fundamental & Macro Score Fed Rate Cut Probability: 90% (Sept 18 FOMC, 25 bps cut expected) Key Drivers: ✅ Labor Data: NFP (Sept 5) is crucial for direction. ⚠️ Trade Policy: Court ruled Trump tariffs illegal (appeal pending). ⬇️ Consumer Confidence: Michigan Index at 3-month low (58.2). ⬆️ ISM Manufacturing: Ahead of release, possible USD support. Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical tensions supporting USD. 🐂 Overall Market Outlook Score Bullish (Long): 60% Bearish (Short): 40% Bias: Short-term bullish as long as 97.60 holds. USD rebound + bond yield strength + equity weakness backing USD. ⚠️ Risk: Break below 97.60 → next target 96.55 (bearish). 💡 Key Takeaways 🎯 NFP Report (Sept 5) = decisive catalyst. ⚖️ Fed debates + trade policy = medium-term uncertainty. 📉 Breakout above 98.80 is the key to bullish continuation. 🔍 Related Markets to Watch FX:EURUSD FX:GBPUSD FX:USDJPY OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:US30 ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #DXY #USD #DollarIndex #Forex #DayTrading #SwingTrading #BreakoutStrategy #ThiefTrader #TradingSetup
TVC:DXYLong
by The-Thief
DXY Intraday Overview- US Dollar Index (DXY) breached the symmetrical triangle downwards and sustained downwards. - It indicates that sellers are still strong, hence the structure remains downwards. 🔽 If the immediate support level of 97.80 (fib level 0.786) is broken again, then the price will continue its fall to the next support zone between 97.56 - 97.50 🔼 However, if the price manages to recover and break through the resistance level of 97.90, we can expect a further rise to the level of 98.00.
FXOPEN:DXYShort
by Nadia_farhat
DXY | 1SPT directional sentiment (SMC)“DXY moving like it just clocked in for a Monday shift 🥱📉… got smacked with that Friday LQC and now stumbling down to 97.100 like it’s chasing a Black Friday discount 🛒. Daily bias still bearish, 4H looking weak, and on the 1H the bulls tryna flex but only after sweeping some liquidity 🐂➡️🚪. If price taps back into that chef’s POI kitchen 🍳 and fails to hold, the bears finna drag this straight to the basement 📉🐻. Until then, we vibin’ in discount land waiting for confirmation signals. This POI remains the make-or-break zone 🧩 heading into the next sessions.”**
TVC:DXYShort
by sam_trades_smc
DXY 4HTrading Outlook for Major Currency Pairs and Indices, Especially Gold and Silver, in the Upcoming Week In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and market outlooks. As can be seen, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance area near the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or break of these levels will determine the subsequent price trend up to the next specified levels. Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to identify key price levels and potential market reactions, and the analyses provided should not be considered as trading signals.
TVC:DXY
by esmaeilesmaeilzade_fx
Current Price Action All MarketsWanted to share a picture of the daily TF price action of the major markets. 1) August has been a very slow market for forex. Nothing but chop... Especially over the last 3 weeks., 2)Stocks and gold have seen a slow grinding uptrend., Each market is unique in its own right and benefits not only different types of traders, but also different setups perform better during specific market conditions. It's essential to trade various types of market conditions to suit your style, as well as when you perform at your best and worst.
TVC:DXY
by MoneyballAustin
Bullish Bounce off Key Support?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and oculd bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 97.77 1st Support: 97.17 1st Resistance: 98.74 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets