CurrentlyGB10Y is in the selling zone, but if the red average indicated by the blue arrow is broken and we enter the green zone, the market will be in the buying phase.
The 10 Year gilt vs the GBP.
Fractal taken from 2007 just before the 2008 recession.
interest rates are expecting to keep raising! why this chart indicates they are coming to the end of the tightening cycle!
as mentioned before I'm expecting more strength in the pound due to weakness in the dollar.
Expecting the BOE to pause rate hikes next meeting after the...
Price action depicts a loss of upside momentum and implies that the market is likely to ease back short term
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no...
"The Bank of England has hiked interest rates to 5 per cent in a further blow to homeowners struggling with spiralling mortgage costs.
The rise, up from 4.5 per cent, is the sharpest increase since February – surprising economists who had been expecting a smaller increase of 0.25 percentage points – and sends interest rates to their highest level in 15...
Very simple chart showing parallel channel of the UK bond market trending down since the 1980s with the yellow line at 4.2% seeming to be a key line of historic resistance.
Back in October 2022 the UK bond market had a severe problem which ultimately led to the resignation of the Prime Minister Liz Truss. The issue was causing pension funds to experience extreme...
Here show similarities of 2007, before the 2008 financial collapse!
both show reaching their peak, pulling back then heading towards retracement level's.
2007 couldn't hold the 0.702 retracement, bond price reversed and took out the low's.
23/05/23. today we are heading for the same scenario!
will be waiting to see if we can break and hold the 0.702, if not then...
Something bad is happening in the state market. bonds of England - these papers have been actively sold over the past month.
During this period, the yield on them increased by as much as 1%.
Because of this, we see how the market is already beginning to arrive in some kind of stress: the dollar index is growing, other bonds of developed countries are also...
Yet another example of a market mean reverting to its long term 200-day ma at 3.13 and attempting to stabilise.
We have seen SVB collapse and UBS take over Credit Suisse and during this market turmoil, as at other times, we are likely to see markets mean revert to their long term moving averages - particular attention should be paid to the 200 and 55 week moving...
Remember upside pressure for UK 10Y yield implies downside pressure still for UK gilts......
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the...
The chart points show mostly bearish signals as the price peaks and starts breaking down through several major levels across 3 timeframes. The short target is set at a level where the next largest support levels overlap on all 3 timeframes and the short is set at the extrapolated max 3D resistance.
The GILTs yield curve has been stabilised by the Bank of England's stealth intervention in the GILTs market. However, this intervention in open markets would not last definitively, and the Bank of England had already announced its winding down of GILTs purchases.
Going forward, CPI and CORE Inflation in the UK economy are going to be slightly higher for longer...
The UK Sovereign Debt market could be on the verge of a huge financial crisis, with large Investment Funds dumping UK GILTs. The price/volume trendline prices below the IKH Senkou, that it's a technical signal of a downtrend, as in fact, only an emergency BoE intervention has temporarily stabilized the GILTs market. Large Investment Fund Creditors to the UK have...
UK is a warning signal for everyone. This is what happens when central banks attempt to pivot in the current inflationary environment.
The Global Lehman event accelerated after the September U.S. CPI, but was paused by BOE temporary intervention.
Next U.S. CPI follows the end of BOE intervention.
A Lehman crash now equals approx -60% in GDOW/SPX.
The softer...
Despite the interventions of the Bank of England, British bond yields continue to spike. The Banks of England says its bond buying program is temporary. Looking at this chart I highly doubt it.
The chart posted is the 10yr yield from the record peak 15.64 in 1981 to the low 41 years of rates in freefall . if you though the house crash in 2008 /2009 was BIG this is going to be HUGE by spring NO WAY OUT everyone gets hurt for most time . WARNING !
UK government recently announced some tax cuts thus implying an increase in deficit. Here we can see bond yields spiking as treasury bond market collapses however it has already reached a point where we might expect a pull back with a clear line of resistance from prior years being hit now.
This chart shows the British debt 10 year yield. There has been a break of a 42 year long down trend in UK government bond yields. The Bank of England may be forced to defend the pound from a collapse against the dollar and to at least try to get interest rates to match up with yields. All in all this looks very dangerous for the British economy.
