Here are the relation between Indonesia Interest Rate (BI Rate then continue as BI 7D Reverse Repo Rate) and Inflation (YoY) also Indonesia Bond Yield and Inflation.
I put Indonesia Rate as comparison.
I compared the COMPOSITE and yield spread between the US10Y and ID10Y and discovered that whenever the spread reaches its peak, the Composite bottoms and then begins to move uptrend.
Meanwhile, every time the spread reaches bottom, the Composite is peaking then start to move Downtrend.
Currently, I think the spread is bottoming and that will lead to the...
These are the charts that I'm monitoring in order to see the Inverted Yield Curve.
The Blue Line is a spread between ID10Y and ID05Y that indicate Benchmark and Short Term Yield.
The Red Line is a spread between ID20Y that represents Long Term Yield and ID10Y as Benchmark.
ID10Y tend to rise to 9 :
But US10Y tend to fall below zero level following other developed countries Bond Yield :
I believe the spread between ID10Y and US10Y will be larger and might breach the highest spread since 2015 at this current spread of 7.5%.
I don't believe the spread could reach a level in 2009 (a recovery after GFC) but the spread could...
Yield Indonesia Bond 10 Yr is not touching Support at 7% but potentially Breakdown Support and continue to fall to reach 6.5% (at least).
The Yield is still in Downtrend since Oct'18 at 9%. The downtrend is confirmed after the Yield broke Support at 7.2% on Oct'19.
ID10Y ends Pullback by falling from near-Resistance at 7.45%.
This is one of the characteristics of Pullback.
A pullback is also a confirmation that Downtrend is imminent.
I predict ID10Y will continue its Downtrend until it reaches 6.5%.
The spread between Indonesia Bond 10Yr with US Treasury 10Yr reached the highest level since the end of 2016. The spread is now at 5.8% wherein the beginning of 2018, the spread is only at 3.6% and 5.4% at the beginning of 2019.
The latest increase of the spread (since Jul'19) is caused by the falling of UST 10Yr at high speed (from 2.1% to 1.5% in just a...
Yield SUN10Yr berpotensi melanjutkan Tren Turun menuju 6.5% setelah Breakdown Support di 7.45%.
Kenaikan Yield di bulan awal April 2019 dari 7.45% menuju 8.2% terlihat sebagai Tech. Rebound yaitu kenaikan ditengah Downtrend (Tren Turun).
Oleh karena itu, dengan Breakdown Support di 7.45% yang terjadi dipertengahan Jun'19 lalu, Yield mengonfirmasi Tren Turun dari...