Across the board 10 year bonds look scary. The italy 10 yr is so clear i figured id publish it. Same with Cadanian 10 yr, US 10 yr. Central banks must be shitting themselves. It'll be an interesting next week or 2.
Within the EURO AREA considering the TARGET 2 balances of participating Central Banks, up to July '22, Italy boasted the LARGEST DEFICIT €-640 billion EURO a MONSTRE DEFICIT IN THE FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS, that hinders overall ITALY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, considering that the country could eventually achieve a Balance of Trade surplus that it's a tiny amount compared to...
Over the past 2yrs, 10y It US has move little over 175Bp higher. It coincided with the Euro dropping over20BF and EurChf breaking down to well below parity again. Note, that it took a similar jump in rate spread in 2012 to accelerate the inverse correlation to EurUsd.
If It 10y breaks above 100bp vs 10y US Italy will need to sign up to an ESM program as the ECB...
Could it be that the strength in the DXY dollar index will continue until euro zone debt distress subsides and Chinese economic conditions improve?
UUP DXY FX:EURUSD AMEX:GLD
we're starting to see divergence in European credit spreads again, so wanted to publish this so that we can all follow along as this theme continues to evolve.
The U.S. 10y Treasury Yield and the 10y BTP yield have been correlated in their drift upward that will see both the Sovereign debt securities being priced within a Yield range 3.15%<3.68%, in order to discount persistent inflationary pressures in the economy, while also Central Banks would try to stabilise monetary policy for a high inflationary economic...
The 10y BTP Italy's benchmark Sovereign Debt has been discounted below par with other Sovereign Debt securities, in a sign of Sovereign Debt market broader repricing. The outflows from Sovereign Debt markets have in all probability helped to fuel the reckless allocation to stocks seen in these weeks.
In our view, these excessive speculative activities in...
Please note, that this ia a yield chart, which means an upward move in yields is bearish in terms of BTP futures.
After reaching our initial bearish target, BTP yield retraced to daily Kijun Sen and is trading now at a very good risk/reward support zone, where we start to re-establish short bond positions to a 1,35-1,40 % target.
We will put on larger size in...
For the non FI experts: I put this post out as a SHORT Investment strategy, which means sell the 10y Italian bond (BTP) futures. Only in terms of yield charts it is a bullish picture as yields rise when bonds are sold.
Left panel: weekly chart of BTP/Bund (Italy 10y over German 10y bond) yield spread
Right panel: BTP Italy 10y yield
The yield already delivered...
I expect 10yr Italian Govt Bonds Yields to slowly drop toward area 1,05/1,13 thanks to the purchase program of ECB. They shall not skyrocket again until next government crisis, or Covid return, or major problems of the EU.
In the short term, the ECB can still fight against the capital flight from Italy government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro.
The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde.
As you can see in the chart, if 3,00 and later 3,85 falls, everything is done and dusted - the trader world will see that too.
Look at RSI on...
The ECB cannot get a grip on it and the 10-year Italian government bond is quoted at 17.8% p.a. on 19 March 2019.
Not only is Italy bankrupt, but also the portfolios of the government bond holders are disappearing into thin air, above all the ECB and pension funds and insurance companies.
Not funny.
I SEE MANY PEOPLE COMPLAINING ABOUT BAILOUTS FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR!
HOW ABOUT THE REAL PROBLEM: BAILOUTS FOR GOVERNMENTS!
I WOULD BET MY LIFE SAVINGS THAT THE ECB WILL GUARANTEE THAT ITALIAN (AND EVERY OTHER EUROPEAN NATION'S) BOND YIELDS REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY SACRIFICING THE VALUE OF THE SAVINGS OF EVERY PERSON IN EUROPE!
UNTIL GOVERNMENTS ARE ALLOWED TO...
