Fractal dynamics analysis of commodities represented by the CRB INDEX in fractal relationship with the Morgan Stanley stock moved forward by 90 months, this road map detects the similarity of the Wyckoff phases and becomes a binoculars on the future of the direction of the commodity price , this study highlights a long-term future bullish trend in commodities.
Following my last post on Crude, i am showing the weekly chart of the Thompson Commodity CRB index. Right now its sitting at around 206.95.
The old saying "Old Top becomes New Bottom" could be a valid case here.
Crude oil is the largest constituent in the CRB index and it affect the price greatly. Follows by Hard then Soft metals (except gold).
This index is breaking down after showing bearish divergence and having a false bullish breakout on the Daily and Weekly.
Based off this and the weakness we're seeing in the commodities themselves i expect the prices of Precious metals to begin a new downtrend in the coming weeks and for the price of Thongs such as Wheat and Soy to have a major decline.
CRB (commodity index) / S&P 500:. The Thomson Reuters CRB index is a basket of 19 different commodities heavily weighted towards Energy and Ag (39% Energy, 41% Agriculture, 7% precious metals, 13% industrial metals)
In bullish cycles with strength in stocks and commodities, it is typical for commodities to have a correction in the middle of a Stock Market bull...
the market. It controls the direction of $tnx which controls next move in $iwm and $gld There is an outside shot we get a temporary spike to 232 on the crb index, but I think that is it. High portability that we get a substantial correction sometime soon. Tnx looks like an inverted H&S bottom but that would require a super cycle move in commodities beyond 232...
Commodities are at an important monthly liquidity zone.
Price action from this point will determine if a new descendent trend will start or the price will continue the up trend.
At the fundamental level there are labour shortages and severe suply chain disruptions.
The rate of growth is the sharpest since May 2007 but firms have dificulties procesing new orders...
Inflation has been driven by excessive deficits ending up as savings in the hands of the few net savers
who ran out and speculated in all asset classes. Util Covid came along commodities were out of favor.
When the $6 trillion in deficits (or 40% of Real GDP) in a little over a year ended up as profit savings
in the hands of the few. Dollars started spilling over...
Commodities have continued a steady climb, and the CRB Index is outperforming SPY (as noted in an earlier post). But CRB is now hitting the upper edge of a resistance band with longer-term market cycle implications. A close watch is required here to see how the CRB Index performs at this crucial juncture.
I would be careful piling into commodities right here. May have a little more upside, but downside risk is developing. Energy carrying it right now. Not to mention the bearish RSI divergence forming as well
Rarely if ever have I seen a "cute story" say the truth of what is really going on in the markets.
From Buy Gold Buy Silver Crash JPM Gold is real money Hyperinflation blah blah to
China Hard Landing
China Soft landing
Stagflation in 2018
Covid is a liberal Hoax and goes away
To inflation is a supply chain problem, not endless...