Commodities are awakening from their slumber which is sparking renewed global inflation fears. Due to escalating global tensions, crude oil has surged more than 10% since the start of March which has seen the price per barrel close above $90 per barrel last week. Precious metals along with industrial metals have also benefitted from the rise in oil prices which...
I dare the fed to start cutting rates. M2 is also turning up. Another sign of economic strength returning. What reason is there for cutting rates other than 34T ind gov't debt
The chart posted is that of the CRB index The basket of ALL things . Iam looking for the High for the year in the stock market to form this jan 11 to the 18 and the Low for the CRB this should push the 10 yr into the last drop from 3.76 to 3.81 and then the TROUBLE
Function: Corrective
Wave Family: Simple Zig-Zag
Macro count: 2 of 5 of 5
Invalidation points: Below 0.79 of Primary 1
Description: TRJEFFCRB is pulling back in three waves to find support at the terminus of primary (2) before taking off in primary (3). Expecting C to be 100% of A at ~230 near the base of the channel.
Nice bullish pullback on CRB core commodities index after hitting resistance on the 38.2% Fibo retracement level of 283.
Golden cross is also imminent (50-day crossing 200-day MA).
A break below the 23.6% Fibo level of 272 will however invalidate the idea.
Fundamentally however, the weak data and economic growth from China is negative for commodities.
We’ve become so accustomed to headlines of ‘peak inflation’ and falling input prices that some have been throwing the wonderful ‘deflation’ word around. And we think most would enjoy a bit of deflation, as that would result in lower interest rates. However, with commodity prices (particularly oil) being a key driver of inflation, a lot of the softness can be tied...
Inflation Y/Y almost seems to track the CRB index to the point of disbelief, especially in terms of putting in highs and lows. And CRB looks to have made a decent X wave pullback to golden fib which marks decent tops. Consequently, it does seem like inflation has topped and the economy can fall into deflation. Also, May prices have fallen further and hence should...
TRJEFFCRB almost confirms the Downtrend which indicates the US Inflation is about to ease down.
Meanwhile, as inflation falls, the rise of Fed Fund Rate should also near its ends.
Now that everyone is talking about inflation it’s over! It’s going for be a quite interesting time when everything begins or continues to deflate into the abyss. Watch the federal reserve over compensate for inflation and cause a recession we have not seen the likes of.
The Fed says they are trying hard to get inflation down however the commodities chart is sticking out it's tongue at the Fed.
Everyone on social media is screaming: The Fed is going to cause a major RECESSION; MAJOR RECESSION IS COMING!!!
Yet this chart is not screaming a major recession is coming (nor is it at all scared by the Central Banks "hawkish"...
An unpopular opinion I have is that inflation has already peaked. Just as the Fed took too long to raise interest rates. They now appear to be raising the Federal Funds rates too high in their attempts to mitigate runaway inflation.
For being such an unpopular opinion - it is oddly evident almost anywhere you care to look:
Freight Rates have dropped 8.2% y/y...
CRB Index has been trending steadily since the time the logistics issues cropped up along the Covid wave across countries , gaining additional impetus from the crude oil rally - ukraine war. However off late its a bit surprising that so many of the commodity shortage or panic demand factors are so quickly priced in , as the ending diagonal in CRB almost makes it...
More percentages to oil that is good for supply problems so we can have growth in the economy .US must lead economy cool down that's a good sign for world economy recovery
