2000 DOT-COM CRISIS The dot-com crisis, also known as the "dot-com bubble" or "dot-com crash," was a period of economic turbulence that affected the technology and telecommunications sectors in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Here are some key points: Euphoria Phase: In the 1990s, there was a boom in the technology and dot-com industry fueled by irrational...
1. Stocks are fundamentally overvalued. 2. The macro (yield curve and unemployment rate) I'm monitoring is at its peak/low and could be at potential turning point. 3. We need technical analysis to enter this trade and time the short if there is any at all. These are some extremes I'm looking for that can either enrich you if you're right or make you poor if you...
3 month yield - 10Yr yield compared to SPX for last 60yrs...prety clear that when spreads correct, markets correct. question is when do these yields correct with everyone expected fed to start cutting in 2024.
Interesting how the market basically topped out in July around the same time bond traders started correcting the inversion on longer term bonds. I said a few months ago that bond traders don't know what they're doing, lol. They were assuming rates were just gonna drop back down, now they've adjusted. Problem is, all of the bonds banks have bought in the past...
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
1. We have broken a very important trendline 2. Short term rates have surpassed long term rates for bonds 3.
Here's a closer look at a highly reliable cyclical bear market indicator. Over the past two decades, it has consistently proven itself as a trusted signal, often aligning with yield curve inversions. In contrast to employing trendlines and breakouts for precision, this chart relies on moving averages. These moving averages function in a similar manner to channels,...
This is nothing new, really. People who have been in markets long enough know that when short term bond yields (3 month and 2 year, for example) come up to meet and invert to a higher yield than longer term bonds (like the 10 year, 30 year etc) that it often precedes a large market sell off as well as a recession that affects most everyone, not just stock...
The 3 Month Bill is currently breaking down and backtesting a Rising Wedge after Bearishly Diverging at some extreme highs while the DXY has also broken below a long term trend line and is backtesting the S/R Zone and Moving Averages as Resistance. I have expectations that both of them will crash majorly in the coming weeks to months.
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Economic Recession 2024 This aggressive rise in interest rates and the resulting inverted yield curve caused us to pull in that anticipated mid-decade recession to 2024. If the Federal Reserve Board decides to be even more aggressive, it could make the recession steeper and potentially prolong it into 2025.
Economic Recession 2024. This aggressive rise in interest rates and the resulting inverted yield curve caused us to pull in that anticipated mid-decade recession to 2024. If the Federal Reserve Board decides to be even more aggressive, it could make the recession steeper and potentially prolong it into 2025.
5.3 - 5.5 Maybe the next stop for the short term bond yields where the market will pause, consolidate and then breakout/reverse. The fed may also maintain the rates at around 5.5.
The market is pricing in a rate CUT, and they're not gonna get it. Expect turmoil next Wed. If Simple Jack Powell gets dovish because of a few bank failures, he'll lose the inflation fight. Tofu futures haven't dropped yet. Then again, he is the Village idiot, so anything can happen.
Market priced out the .25% hike for next week, if the Village Idiot sticks to his guns (which he should) then the market tanks next Wed because they need to price it back in and adjust portfolios accordingly. The problem here is that we're dealing with a complete idiot, so chances are high that he won't do what he needs to do. Tanking the market is part of...
Hello Traders, Investors and Friends, have a nice holiday! The US10Y bonds yield and the US03M bonds yield has flipped upside down since this 2022. It has only flipped upside down three times in history since the 20th century. The first time is in 2000 dot-com bobble, the second is in 2008 market crash, the third time is in 2019 unlimited QE I think there’s a...