The US30Y bond is a type of loan that the United States government takes from investors. It's called a "30-year bond" because it takes 30 years for the government to pay back the loan in full. When you buy a US30Y bond, you're essentially lending money to the government, and in return, they promise to pay you back the amount you lent, plus interest, over the...
What a difference 11 hours makes.
The 1 & 2 Yr #Yield are STILL under resistance & are weakening.
10 & 30 Yr completely reversed once markets opened. But this tends to be normal, pretty frequent.
This is why waiting for a CLOSE is of utmost importance. IF we CLOSE here, last night's thinking is NO MORE and the best plan of action is to WAIT.
TVC:TNX
Let's keep looking at #InterestRates. Gives us an idea of what the Fed may do.
The 1 & 2 Year are still under their RESISTANCE level. Struggling a bit, but not breaking down. Trend is still there, weak though.
10 Yr looks like it wants to break the resistance zone.
30 YR looks like it's gone. Does not look like it wants to retrace at the moment.
#FederalReserve TVC:TNX
On the back of strong prices data which were not really consistent with the temporary relief in inflation but rather calling for a sustained trend.
US30Y is likely to revisit new high, breaking our
Small banks account for about 70% of #commercialrealestate.
Small #banks are considered those with assets less than $10B.
We've been bearish CRE for a long time. We believe that this sector will likely not get better anytime soon.
#interestrates are still holding fairly strong. They are at banking crisis levels or higher.
TVC:TNX
Current state of the short and long term #Yield.
The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher.
10Yr vs 30Yr
The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but.......
The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still...
Good Morning Update
Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields.
Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels.
The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels.
The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels.
Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels?
CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD ...
Good Morning! Let's get it done!
Look at #yield for 1yr - 30Yr. What do you see?
Last week we said they looked 2b bottoming out a bit.
Do any of these look weak to you?
RSI above halfway point, solidifying the possible bottoming process.
Short term
#Interestrates keep testing the top part of the white line. The more something is tested the weaker it becomes and...
Currently US30Y is in the selling zone, but if the red average indicated by the blue arrow is broken and we enter the green zone, the market will be in the buying phase.
The 10 year & 30 Yr #yield are at support levels.
Looking at Daily charts:
The longer term, 30Yr, looks better than TVC:TNX (10Yr)
Looking at Weekly charts:
The 10Yr support level looks strongest @ 3.3%.
All sorts of support levels and trendlines were broken recently.
The 30 Yr trendline is certainly broken & Strong Support is found here.
We have our first indication of a top in bond yields with price overlapping and losing it's impulsivity to the upside. However, a top is not confirmed until yields breach 3.40% which is our wave 4 of one lesser degree.
To do so should confirm the beginning of our wave 2 decline into the target box, and over time.
Here is my analysis of the 30Y treasury Bond. In fact , for the past weeks , this market has been trading lower. And my point is that it will continue trading lower until we reach the sellside liqudity level. That means that we could continue to witness bullish prices on indices due the invese correlation between the Bond market and the indices market
It would surprise many.
So far House prices have been holding up with rates going parabolic
Strong economies can usually handle a few years of stable rates in around 5%
Supercycle's generally last 16-18 years
As we saw in the great Bull run of 1982 to 2000
A repeat of this cycle timeframe: would mean
#Bitcoin top 2025 (2009 inception)
#Stocks 2026 (march...
in this analysis , i gave targets for US30Y , based on the macro env , and the W pattern in addition to ichimoku strong resistancec.
not a financial advice
thank you
Update on US long end rates view. YCC or not this is what I think could happen over next 2 years. When I was on the fixed income trading desk at Lehman in '88 we had short end paper that yielded double digits....and given the amount of fiat being printed this could be just the start of the back up in yields
Hate to disappoint you fixed income bulls
We are in the early stages of a secular bull market for yields (started 2020) as inflation will prove persistently bad
There may be pullbacks along the way but the path is higher
Long bond yield>10>50>200 ma
