Good day fellas.
Look at US30Y and US10Y. It seams US10-30Y will push DXY higher again and all Dollar pairs will weak in future.
If positive correlation between DXY and BOND is remain yet, So, without any doubt its time to long and hold DXY again.
Be careful guys
There's nothing much to see in the stock indices as the trends, or lack thereof (RTY1!), have continued. This week I'll be watching the 10Y rate to see if a retest of the recent lows matters at all to the broader market.
When things are slow, it's good to measure just how slow. I like to use the 7-D ATR to gauge volatility and I explain how to do so in this post.
Flattening for the close. Getting a couple of questions re; flattening after the hints in previous idea, for those following 10s30s you will notice the test of 55/54bps is underway.
↳ The latest breakdown is implying we are at the minimum here in an ABC expectation leg towards support
↳ Inflation readings will be key to drive this one, this is signalling a...
Speculation for Macro:
These are the underlying conditions:
- Inflation expectations are what leads risk appetite. After all, who would hold or buy an asset expected to depreciate in value?
- Global inflation expectations turning down and have been in a downtrend for decades. Of course it is deflationary. If DEBT fueled GDP growth (for appearances over...
Interesting price action on US 30 year bond. Inverse head and shoulders potentially developing at previous breakout area.
Fibonacci retracement levels nicely coincide with current level.
There's always the backdrop of more QE and a deflationary shock that could result in a double bottom or worse... At least the floor is 0% right lol? What a mess
Situation, for the moment, remains standing. The unemployment rate has risen to 5.9%, this is a figure to be taken into consideration because in fact in the US we are in the midst of reopening, therefore an unemployment rate that rises after everything is reopening is a non-alarm signal, at least of attention. The fiscal stimulus is about to end, as are family...
Idea for US30Y:
- Bond yields dropping rapidly.
- Bonds are being bought up for 1 of 2 reasons:
(1) Investors are afraid and would rather hold negative yielding bonds than other risk assets.
(2) We are experiencing deflation, despite the media blaring inflation.
Idea for Macro:
- Credit Cycle turned down from top of Risk Range.
- Global Credit Impulse negative, US Systemic Liquidity Flows turning down, Fed Balance Sheet 5yr avg. at top of risk range.
- Demand-push Inflation at top of risk range, in 40 year downtrend.
- Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility reaching a critical level.
- PC ratio reaching low levels...
This chart shows three times during the past three decades in which the yield curve inverts. An inversion is when the rate of a shorter term debt security is higher than the rate of a longer term debt security. This is identified on this chart in 2000, 2006, 2019.
Treasury Debt Securities:
Bill; less than one year to maturity at issue.
Note; greater than one year...
The problem that we believe to be fundamental is this: will it be possible to pass on the rise in the prices of raw materials to the final consumer? Or will we have a generalized rise in prices with a stagnant economy? Which will lead us to stagflation. The advantage of Treasuries is that they pay you to wait.
This is not a prediction. It's meant to be educational but it's an analysis.
Loads of traders are unaware of what the Bond markets mean. This post can't be a full exploration as it's a massive topic. Some self-driven independent study is required. I'll give a few snippets of what I understand in the form of a story.
The Bond Market (aka Treasuries) is the...