Idea for Macro:
- I'm of the opinion that Fed has already made a policy mistake.
- Recession has already begun, as per my September 29 idea and now confirmed by consumer sentiment.
- Likely the nominal yield falls below 1.000 again, and yield curve to invert once more.
GLHF
- DPT
Just a screen shot for later review.
Watching 2's and 5's catch up to 10's and 30's.
Watch German & Japanese 10yr's for strength and/or weakness.
I'm a scalper following context, nothing more.
Readers familiar with traditional financial world
will recognise the generational downtrend of
every interest rate (inverse of Bond prices) charts.
US 30 Year Bond Rates are set to go near zero before
the immortal rate Bear is final through.
TVC:US30
TVC:US30Y
NASDAQ:TLT
CBOT:UB1!
I expected the 1.145 area to act as a good resistance level, but the extend of yesrdays pullback was something I did not see coming. Let's see what CPI numbers do before throwing in the towel
As you can see , this count is for US30Y currently on a monthly basis
As of now a possibility of wave (iii) of wave 3 is to occur for a target 2.939
This count will be valid only if 1.780 is held whether wave 3 is extended or not
Fed officials say tapering ‘may soon be warranted’ and interest rates rise penciled in for 2022. Powell says announcement on tapering bond purchases could come in November. The formal announcement could come at the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting, barring a major setback for the economy or another coronavirus outbreak, Powell indicated. In updated projections, the Fed also...
Flattening for the close. Getting a couple of questions re; flattening after the hints in previous idea, for those following 10s30s you will notice the test of 55/54bps is underway.
↳ The latest breakdown is implying we are at the minimum here in an ABC expectation leg towards support
↳ Inflation readings will be key to drive this one, this is signalling a...
Good day fellas.
Look at US30Y and US10Y. It seams US10-30Y will push DXY higher again and all Dollar pairs will weak in future.
If positive correlation between DXY and BOND is remain yet, So, without any doubt its time to long and hold DXY again.
Be careful guys
good luck
There's nothing much to see in the stock indices as the trends, or lack thereof (RTY1!), have continued. This week I'll be watching the 10Y rate to see if a retest of the recent lows matters at all to the broader market.
When things are slow, it's good to measure just how slow. I like to use the 7-D ATR to gauge volatility and I explain how to do so in this post.
Speculation for Macro:
These are the underlying conditions:
- Inflation expectations are what leads risk appetite. After all, who would hold or buy an asset expected to depreciate in value?
- Global inflation expectations turning down and have been in a downtrend for decades. Of course it is deflationary. If DEBT fueled GDP growth (for appearances over...
Interesting price action on US 30 year bond. Inverse head and shoulders potentially developing at previous breakout area.
Fibonacci retracement levels nicely coincide with current level.
There's always the backdrop of more QE and a deflationary shock that could result in a double bottom or worse... At least the floor is 0% right lol? What a mess
One thing they cant hide is the footprint of the money. Divergence in 5y US bond yields is a glaring indication that smart money is positioning LONG USD.
Situation, for the moment, remains standing. The unemployment rate has risen to 5.9%, this is a figure to be taken into consideration because in fact in the US we are in the midst of reopening, therefore an unemployment rate that rises after everything is reopening is a non-alarm signal, at least of attention. The fiscal stimulus is about to end, as are family...
Idea for US30Y:
- Bond yields dropping rapidly.
- Bonds are being bought up for 1 of 2 reasons:
(1) Investors are afraid and would rather hold negative yielding bonds than other risk assets.
(2) We are experiencing deflation, despite the media blaring inflation.
Reminder:
GLHF
- DPT
