SPX500 Awaits CPI – Pivot 6,527 in Focus (Details Below...)SPX500 – Overview
U.S. futures were flat Thursday as traders awaited the August CPI report, which could shape expectations for a potential 50bps Fed rate cut next week. Earnings from Kroger and Adobe are also due.
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained +0.3% and the Nasdaq +0.03% to fresh record highs after a surprise drop in PPI and strong Oracle guidance, while the Dow fell -0.48% on Apple weakness.
Technical Outlook
📉 Below 6,527 → bearish momentum may extend to 6,506 → 6,490 → 6,470.
📈 Above 6,527 → bullish bias continues toward 6,550 → 6,565, with a potential push to 6,600 if CPI comes in softer (<2.9%).
⚠️ A hotter CPI print could trigger sharp downside volatility.
Key Levels
Pivot: 6,527
Resistance: 6,550 – 6,565 – 6,600
Support: 6,506 – 6,490 – 6,470
Trade ideas
SPX - 2 Month Bearish DivergenceHello Traders,
As shown you can see the two month bearish divergence on the index. My thoughts are it needs resolved soon than later and the inflation data coming up next could be the spark that finally gets it going.... We will find out tomorrow at 8:30 if the data comes in hot the market will not like that.. We could get a selloff in stocks and crypto on no other than 9-11 anniversary. Stay tunes and lets see if I nailed this one or not.
THE FED'S SECRET INDICATOR JUST FLASHED REDHERE'S WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO
The National Financial Conditions Index from the Chicago Federal Reserve has sent a clear signal this week: financial market conditions are deteriorating. After months of relative calm at a level of -0.53, the index rose on Wednesday, triggering the first "Risk Off" signal in an extended period. For institutional investors and risk-conscious traders, this is a moment that deserves attention.
The NFCI is not just another technical indicator. It represents the most comprehensive assessment of American financial market conditions available. Over 100 different data points flow into its calculation: from credit conditions to volatility measures to banking sector stress indicators. When this index rises, it means liquidity conditions are deteriorating, credit risks are increasing, and financial market stability is under pressure.
The historical evidence is clear. Both in 2008 and 2020, NFCI increases warned weeks before major market crashes of deteriorating conditions. The strategy of building defensive positions during NFCI rises has proven its effectiveness over long periods. While it doesn't deliver the spectacular returns of a pure buy-and-hold approach, it offers something far more valuable: capital protection in critical moments.
BASE CASE SCENARIO
Our base case assumes that the current NFCI rise marks the beginning of a typical correction phase. Historical data shows that such signals typically anticipate market declines of 10 to 15 percent over a period of three to six months. The correction would be driven by a combination of tighter credit conditions, increased volatility, and diminishing investor risk appetite.
In this scenario, we expect the S&P 500 to retreat from its current level of approximately 6,470 points to a level between 5,500 and 5,800 points. This would correspond to a decline of about 10 to 15 percent, equivalent to a normal, healthy correction in an otherwise intact bull market. Recovery would begin once the NFCI starts falling again, signaling that financial market conditions are relaxing.
This scenario is supported by the fact that the American economy remains fundamentally robust. Unemployment is low, corporate earnings continue to grow, and the Federal Reserve still has room for monetary policy support. A moderate decline would correct overvalued areas of the market without triggering a systemic crisis.
WORST CASE SCENARIO
The more pessimistic scenario considers the possibility that the current NFCI rise is the beginning of a more serious financial market disruption. In this case, the index could continue deteriorating and reach values historically associated with genuine financial crises. A sustained rise over several weeks, especially if the NFCI reaches positive values, would indicate systemic problems.
In this scenario, we would have to expect a market decline of 25 to 40 percent extending over 12 to 18 months. The S&P 500 would fall to levels between 3,900 and 4,900 points in this case. Such movements typically arise from a combination of credit squeeze, liquidity shortages, and self-reinforcing selling spirals.
The triggers for such a scenario could be diverse: an unexpected escalation of the geopolitical situation, the bursting of a speculation bubble in an important market segment, or a revaluation of credit risks in the banking sector. The worst-case scenario would also mean that the Federal Reserve would have to respond with aggressive measures, which in turn could lead to longer-term structural changes in monetary policy.
POSITIONING STRATEGY
Given these scenarios, a graduated defense strategy is appropriate. The first line of defense consists of reducing existing long positions and taking profits. This is particularly important for overvalued growth stocks that suffer disproportionately in correction phases.
The second stage involves building direct hedging positions. Put options on the S&P 500 with maturities of three to six months offer cost-effective protection against larger declines. Strike prices between 10 and 20 percent below the current market level should be chosen to achieve a balanced ratio between costs and protective effect.
For more aggressive traders, direct short positions are also available, but with strict risk management. Short positions should not exceed 5 to 10 percent of the total portfolio and must be closed immediately upon a reversal of the NFCI signal.
TIMING AND EXIT STRATEGY
Timing is crucial for NFCI-based strategies. The index is updated only once weekly, meaning signals don't immediately react to daily market movements. However, this is a feature, not a bug. The weekly frequency filters out market noise and focuses on substantial changes in financial market conditions.
The exit strategy is as important as the entry. As soon as the NFCI begins falling again, defensive positions should be gradually reduced. A decline of the index below its previous low would represent a clear "Risk On" signal and justify building new long positions.
It's particularly important not to try to catch the absolute bottom. The NFCI strategy is designed to capture the big moves, not to trade every small fluctuation. Patience and discipline are more important here than precision.
The current NFCI rise is a warning signal that should be taken seriously. While we cannot predict with certainty whether we are at the beginning of a small correction or a larger bear market, the historical evidence justifies defensive positioning. The combination of profit-taking, hedging strategies, and increased liquidity provides the best possible protection against the uncertainties that may lie ahead.
At a time when many investors are blinded by ongoing market euphoria, the NFCI reminds us that markets are cyclical and that caution is often the better part of valor. Those who position defensively today will have the flexibility tomorrow to act from a position of strength when better opportunities arise again.
SPX500 – Retest of ATH, Bullish Flag in FormationSPX500 reached a new all-time high today and has since pulled back to retest the previous ATH level. The structure remains intact, and price is shaping up into a potential bullish flag, signaling continuation higher.
Confluences:
• Oscillators showing bullish momentum
• No major trends broken
• Small pullback likely enough for a bounce toward retesting the new ATH
On the 1H chart, this lines up with a quick 0.5R setup:
• Target: 1 ATR
• Stop loss: 2 ATR
Unfortunately, I didn’t notice the post was set to private instead of public.
Here’s the private link where you can view the original setup:
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only. Please do not place trades solely based on this setup.
Precious metals bull market starting pointLot's of similar charts aligning. We are right at the decision point. Will it be like "false start" 2016 or summer 2020? Or will it be more like 1976 or 2000??
If it's like 1976 or 2000, that means the bull market for precious metals and precious metals miners, in real terms, is just beginning.
We'll find out soon!
SPX500USD – Rejected at 6,550, Holding 6,490 SupportThe S&P 500 Index faced rejection at the 6,550 resistance zone after a strong bullish run. Price is now pulling back toward the 6,490 support, which will be key for buyers to defend in order to maintain upside momentum.
Support at: 6,490 / 6,455 / 6,350 🔽
Resistance at: 6,550 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: A rebound from 6,490 could retest 6,550, and a breakout above would extend gains.
🔽 Bearish: A break below 6,490 and 6,455 would expose the 6,350 zone.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Bullish continuation setup?S&P500 is falling towards the support level, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 6,511.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 6,440.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 6,603.09
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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SPX 1D Close Up Corrective to (4) and finishing the year STRONG!Based on this count I believe that the markets will begin to go corrective starting this next week into October and finishing the year at higher highs. As always trade responsibly and wait for your confirmation bias (whatever that might be)...
S&P 500 to 7000 over the next 60 daysYeT another contrarian idea as so many on the platform publish S&P 500 “short” positions. Just as with the NASDAQ 100 idea, many paper hands were flushed out of the market earlier in the year. Now they wait with cash as the market grinds higher. Others throwing themselves into Put options.
What next? First the basic question trend and support/resistance.
The Trend
Higher lows have been printed consistently since the April sell off. The trend is up.
Support & Resistance
Look left. Multiple levels of past resistance now confirm as support (blue arrows). How is it possible to be bearish?
Sentiment
As with the NASDAQ 100 idea, much of the retail market maintains a short bias with the Put/Call ratio far into the bearish territory. Historically, when put/call ratios spike above extreme levels, the S&P 500 rallies for weeks to months after.
Why 7000?
The breakout above the prior all time high of 6150 sent the market into price discovery. Selling pressure is largely absent with the April flush out leaving Wave 5 to develop. The uptrend channel will now not find resistance until the upper side of the channel, which is conveniently enough the Fibonacci 1.618 extension @ 7k.
Why 60 days?
Specifically this is a timeline defined by the US debt markets, which is for another post.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 climbs a wall of worry as confidence in the US markets evaporates. Loud bearish calls dominate the headlines, which is understandable. However the chart tells the real story: higher lows, confirmed supports, sentiment extremes, and extension forecasts all align with continuation.
A move to 7000 area is very probable, what the market has in store afterwards is perhaps the bigger story, which is for another time.
Is it possible for the market to correct to 6200 and below like many are calling for? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
SPX 2Hour Time frameSPX 2-Hour Snapshot
Current Value: 6,512.61 USD
Change: +0.27% from the previous close
Intraday High: 6,525.75 USD
Intraday Low: 6,490.25 USD
🔎 Technical Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Neutral
Moving Averages:
5-period MA: 6,487.92 USD
20-period MA: 6,456.40 USD
50-period MA: 6,363.42 USD
100-period MA: 6,086.43 USD
200-period MA: 5,975.33 USD
📈 Market Sentiment
Pivot Points:
Resistance: 6,525.75 USD
Support: 6,490.25 USD
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 6,525.75 USD could signal a move toward 6,600 USD.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 6,490.25 USD may lead to further downside.
Overall Bias: Neutral, with mixed signals from moving averages and momentum indicators.
SPX500 Holds Above 6,527 Ahead of U.S. PPI DataSPX500 – Overview
Global equities rose early Wednesday as bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week strengthened after more weak U.S. jobs data. Traders now await the release of U.S. PPI today and CPI tomorrow, which may spark short-term volatility, though few expect them to alter the Fed’s plans.
Technical Outlook:
📈 The index remains in a bullish trend, with potential to set a new ATH near 6,550. A confirmed breakout above this level could open another bullish leg.
📉 To confirm bearish momentum, price would need to close a 1H candle below 6,527, exposing downside targets at 6,518 → 6,506.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 6,527
Resistance: 6,550 – 6,566
Support: 6,518 – 6,506
S&P | 30min Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders 👋
🧐 Market Overview:
The S&P has been pushing into new highs, but a potential double top is forming right at diagonal resistance. This is a key level for me — the confluence of structure and resistance makes this an area worth watching closely.
If the double top holds, price might first deviate through my entry range and then retest the diagonal resistance. For me to take a short, I’ll be looking for a 30-minute candle close back within the range as confirmation.
📊 Trade Plan:
RR: 3.5
Entry:6 537.4
Stop Loss: 6 543.8
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 515
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 511
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
When trading double tops, I always wait for confirmation (like a close back within range). It reduces false entries and adds probability to the trade.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Follow me for more setups and let me know — do you think this double top will hold, or will the S&P push through resistance to fresh highs?
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
SPX 3Hour Time frameSPX 3-Hour Snapshot
Current Price: 6,512.62 USD
Change: +0.21% from the previous close
Recent High: 6,508.23 USD (August 28, 2025)
Recent Low: 5,500.00 USD (March 13, 2025)
🔎 Technical Indicators
RSI (14): Neutral
MACD: Bullish momentum
Moving Averages:
5-period SMA: Buy signal
10-period SMA: Buy signal
20-period SMA: Buy signal
50-period SMA: Buy signal
📈 Market Sentiment
Golden Cross: The S&P 500 recently formed a "golden cross," where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
Business Insider
Analyst Outlook: Barclays raised its 2025 year-end S&P 500 target to 6,450, citing stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and optimism around artificial intelligence.
Reuters
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 6,508.23 USD could lead to a push toward 6,600 USD and higher.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 6,400 USD may test support around 6,200 USD.
Overall Bias: Moderately bullish, with positive momentum but facing near-term resistance.
SPX500 H4 | Bullish continuationBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has reacted off the buy entry which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 6,535.17, which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 6,459.99, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 6,589.58, which lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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4H IdeaThe only trade as of now would be a retest of old resistance/support. Have a stop under support area.
Entry 1 - would be a bit more aggressive as price moves into old resistance.
Entry 2 - enter as price moves towards the bottom of old resistance.
Entry 3 - would be entered as price starts to bounce from old resistance.
This would be the plan, however, the caveat is this: How did price get back to old resistance?
If price starts to build lower highs and lower lows as it moves back down then the plan may have to be scrapped as there is a higher potential for price to fail and begin to trend lower.
4H Played OutFirst entry retested and played out to the upside almost picture perfect. Again, would've possibly stopped you out on the first entry as it wicked below the support area, but upon a possible re-entry once it came back into support you would have made back that loss and then some.
2nd entry or possible add-on area. This was a bit more riskier as a 2nd entry due to price moving up from original entry. Price consolidated overnight and wicked down into the support area at Tuesday's market open. Buyers again stepped in and though there was drawdown, there was a fixed place to stop out below the consolidation area, so risk was known upon entry. 4 hour targets were hit.
There is no trade now until a retest or news to bring price down on the 4 hour time frame.
S&P500 bullish sideways consolidation Equities: Rate-cut expectations outweighed slowdown fears. S&P 500 (+0.21%) closed just shy of record highs, NASDAQ (+0.45%) hit a fresh record. Defensive sectors lagged, leaving the equal-weighted S&P (-0.04%) slightly lower. In Europe, STOXX 600 (+0.52%) and CAC 40 (+0.78%) gained ahead of France’s confidence vote.
Corporate drivers: Apple’s launch event today puts spotlight on iPhone 17 Air, though analysts see the Pro line as the true sales catalyst. Big-ticket M&A and tech deals: Anglo American–Teck merger ($50bn) and Microsoft–Nebius AI cloud contract (~$20bn).
Conclusion for S&P 500 trading:
Momentum remains positive with the index near record highs, supported by the rate-cut narrative and strong tech sentiment. However, breadth is weak (equal-weighted index flat), suggesting gains are concentrated. Traders may lean bullish into Apple’s event, but need to watch for rotation risk if defensives keep lagging.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6553
Resistance Level 2: 6590
Resistance Level 3: 6630
Support Level 1: 6440
Support Level 2: 6410
Support Level 3: 6380
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S&P500 Rising Wedge break-out imminent.Last week's (September 02, see chart below) buy signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 6530 Target, as the price reversed on its 4H MA200, which as we mentioned was the market's medium-term Support:
Right now the index is supported by its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting to break above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of a Rising Wedge similar to the one at the start of the 4-month Channel Up.
As you can see the symmetry between the two patterns is very high and the June break-out led to a +5.70% rise on the 2.5 Fibonacci extension before the next consolidation. A potential +5.70% rise from he recent 4H MA50 Low would now be at 6720 and that is our short-term Target.
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