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USY / BRITISH POUND

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The Day Ahead Monday, January 5, economic data due: US December ISM index, total vehicle sales, China December services PMI, UK November net consumer credit, M4, Japan's December monetary base Today’s Trading Summary Bullish signals UK credit and money supply showing strength -> may support GBP FX and UK equities. Chinese PMI prints slightly above the contraction threshold, giving some stability to EM/commodity markets. Bearish/soft signals US vehicle sales deceleration + mixed ISM manufacturing expectations -> risk-off tilt if data disappoints. The Japanese monetary base contraction reinforces the BoJ's tightening narrative, which is supportive for the JPY but potentially negative for risk assets. Key market drivers to watch today ISM manufacturing/service prints US vehicle sales SAAR China services PMI details BoJ / JPY reactions around monetary base dynamics This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
GBPUSD - Bulls Ready to Strike?Daily Chart On the daily chart, both the swing structure and fractal structure remain bullish, with a significant amount of liquidity resting above the current high. We also saw a clean reaction from the daily bullish FVG, which aligned perfectly with a daily demand (OB) — giving us a solid technical foundation for a potential bullish continuation in the upcoming days. In other words, the daily structure suggests momentum could build to clear the liquidity above. 4H Chart The 4H chart makes the price action even clearer. Following the news-driven move yesterday, price invalidated a false bullish fractal break, then immediately swept the 4H fractal low, and finally broke fractal structure to the upside again. In my view, this sequence shows buyers flushing out remaining sellers before attempting continuation higher — a typical liquidity play before momentum kicks in. I consider a long setup, but only if price retraces into discounted levels of the current 4H fractal structure.
Long
by AlessioRO
GBPUSD Range Based Point of InterestQuick Summary GBPUSD price action is currently unclear, Two key levels stand out at 1.34015 and 1.35020 Both levels showed strong reactions with large wicks from FVG These areas will be treated as points of interest with targeting the opposite level Full Analysis At the moment GBPUSD price action is somewhat confusing and lacks a clear directional bias The market has highlighted two very important levels that deserve attention The first level is the low at 1.34015 The second level is the high at 1.35020 At both of these areas price reacted strongly and formed large wicks with immediate rejection from FVG This behavior indicates that both zones contain significant liquidity and strong participation from both buyers and sellers Because of these two levels will act as main points of interest, The plan is to remain patient and wait for price to reach either one of them If price reaches one of these zones a trade will be considered targeting the opposite level This approach allows trading within a clearly defined range while respecting the strong reactions already shown by the market.
Short
by Mr_Liquidity1
GBPUSD is showing a clear bullish trend on the 1H chart📈 GBPUSD – Bullish Trend Setup | 1H Timeframe GBPUSD is showing a clear bullish trend on the 1H chart, supported by strong price structure and demand. 🟢 Key Buy Zone: • Strong support holding around 1.34500, presenting a potential buying opportunity 🎯 Technical Target: • Target 1: 1.35300 📊 Market Bias: Bullish ⏱ Timeframe: 1H ⚠️ Bullish continuation remains valid as long as price holds above the key support zone. Always manage risk and trade with confirmation. 👍 Like & follow our community for more professional market insights and trade setups!
Long
by ExpertTraderASK
5
GBPUSD what is it doing?For a much clearer price action and bias on GU I found myself looking at the monthly timeframe which provided me with a much clearer vision for GU perhaps for weeks to come, price may be bearish the whole of Jan. Price has only been creating external highs after lows, I know this because of clear candle close with body above a previous external high, this gives me confidence in understanding that we are still in that up trend and currently only retracing into discount areas, and even more specifically 'OTE'. To get the best entry we have to wait for lower timeframe conditions, these come in the form of order blocks and CISD (Change In State Of Delivery) in short it's displacement of price after liquidity sweep. The H4 is a great way to find these entries because it's generally clearer and minimises market noise so that breakouts can be clearly identified. GU is currently in premium on GU and its on an up trend, we do not sell, instead we wait for price to get to discount levels and on lower timeframes look for candles sticks that displace lower timeframe external lower highs.
Long
by ManMcPriceaction
3
Lingrid | GBPUSD Bullish Setup at Multi-Factor ConfluenceFX:GBPUSD pulled back from the consolidation high and is now reacting around the 1.3438 support band, where the rising trendline meets the descending resistance. This confluence may act as a decision point, with selling pressure slowing after the sharp drop from the highs. If buyers manage to defend this area, the move could evolve into a corrective bounce back toward 1.3520, with extension potential into the upper resistance zone. Structure remains constructive as long as price respects the higher-low base. ➡️ Primary scenario: hold above 1.3438 → rebound toward 1.3520 ⚠️ Risk scenario: sustained breakdown below 1.3400 invalidates the bullish setup and opens deeper downside If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Long
by Lingrid
4
GBPUSD Bearish Continuation ScenarioQuick Summary GBPUSD is expected to move lower in alignment with EURUSD, The pair is targeting 1.34021 A strong rejection wick formed from the orderblock which increases the probability of another bearish push to break that wick Full Analysis In alignment with the bearish outlook on EURUSD, GBPUSD is also expected to continue moving lower Recent price action shows a clear rejection from an orderblock where a large wick was formed immediately after price touched that zone This strong wick indicates that sell side pressure is still present and that the market may attempt another push lower to break that rejection area, Because of this behavior GBPUSD is expected to decline again and target the 1.34021 level The main objective for the downside move is to break below the existing wick which represents remaining liquidity Once that area is cleared the next phase of price action will be evaluated to determine whether the pair continues lower or starts forming a new structure
Short
by Mr_Liquidity1
6
GBPUSD – Daily Bullish Channel While Specs Stay ShortOn the daily chart GBPUSD is still respecting a clear bullish channel from the November lows. Price just reacted from a previous imbalance / FVG around 1.34 and is consolidating inside a broader supply zone, but structure remains constructive as long as we hold the mid–lower part of the channel. 1. Daily structure After the October–November selloff, GBPUSD has been making higher highs and higher lows inside an ascending channel. Current price is trading around the mid-range of that channel, with a small pullback into the daily FVG / demand around 1.3360–1.3430. As long as daily closes hold above this block and the lower trendline, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, with room into the higher supply layers between 1.3550–1.3600 and above. 2. COT data (GBP & USD Index) GBP futures: non-commercials are still net short, but they have started to cover shorts (short positions decreasing while longs tick higher). This suggests the pain trade is still to the upside if price continues to grind higher. Commercials are net long GBP, which fits with accumulation into prior lows. USD Index futures: specs are slightly net short USD, which reinforces a softer-USD backdrop and supports a bullish bias on GBPUSD as long as risk sentiment does not deteriorate sharply. 3. Seasonality Seasonality on GBPUSD shows that recent years (5–10Y and especially 2Y) tend to favour mild GBP strength into late December / early January, while the very long-term average is more neutral. I interpret this as a supportive, but not decisive, tailwind: seasonality aligns with the current bullish structure but is not a stand-alone signal. 4. Sentiment Retail traders are slightly net short into a rising market – a contrarian bullish signal, but not yet at an extreme. This fits with the idea of buying dips while the crowd tries to fade the trend.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
GBPUSD Supply Rejection After UTA,Range Breakdown in FocusGBPUSD shows a well-structured market cycle starting from DTA (Demand-to-Accumulation), where price consolidated before a strong impulsive move higher into UTA. This breakout phase attracted buyers, but the rally was ultimately capped by a clearly defined strong supply zone, where aggressive selling pressure entered the market. After the rejection from supply, price transitioned into a sideways range, signaling distribution rather than continuation. Within this range, multiple attempts to push higher failed, confirming that buyers were losing control while sellers absorbed liquidity. The buyer zone below the range acted only as a temporary pause and did not generate a sustainable bullish response. This behavior supports the idea that smart money is offloading positions rather than building new longs. As price breaks down from the range structure, bearish continuation becomes the higher-probability scenario. The first downside target lies below the range lows, with extended targets aligned toward the higher-timeframe demand zone area. As long as price remains below the strong supply zone, rallies are considered corrective, and the overall bias remains bearish toward the marked targets.
Short
by ZACKFX7
Smart Money Selling Below Major Resistance on GBPUSDGBP/USD is currently trading within a critical zone on the 1-hour timeframe after a clear buy-side liquidity sweep above previous highs. The market has already collected liquidity from the upside, which is often a sign of smart money distribution rather than continuation. Price reaction near the marked resistance zone confirms the presence of strong selling pressure. Following the liquidity grab, the market delivered a clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside, indicating a potential shift in short-term momentum. Price is now consolidating below resistance, suggesting a classic distribution phase where institutions may be building short positions. As long as price remains below the resistance zone and fails to reclaim previous highs, the bearish bias remains valid. The equal highs and sell-side liquidity resting below current price make downside targets more attractive. A continuation move could drive price toward the nearest sell-side liquidity and the higher timeframe support zone. Traders should wait for confirmation such as bearish candle formations or a break-and-retest structure before entering positions. Risk management remains essential, as invalidation of this setup would occur on a sustained move above the resistance zone.
Long
by APEX-CHARTIST
GBPUSD: Bearish Drop to 1.327?As the previous analysis worked exactly as predicted, FX:GBPUSD is eyeing a bearish reversal on the 4-hour chart , with price testing a key resistance zone after forming lower highs in a downward channel, converging with a potential entry area that could spark downside momentum if sellers defend amid recent volatility. This setup hints at a pullback opportunity in the uptrend, targeting lower support levels with risk-reward exceeding 1:2 .🔥 Entry between 1.3586–1.3660 for a short position (entry at these levels with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 1.3268 . Set a stop loss at a close above 1.3728 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:2 . Monitor for confirmation via a bearish candle close below entry with rising volume, leveraging the channel's bearish bias.🌟 Fundamentally , GBPUSD is trading around 1.351 in late December 2025, with no major high-impact economic releases for GBP or USD this week due to Christmas (December 25) and New Year holidays, resulting in thin trading volumes and potential increased volatility from low liquidity. Markets are expected to remain quiet, with focus shifting to upcoming data in early January 2026. 💡 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Entry (Short): 1.3586 – 1.3660 (Entry at these levels is valid with proper risk & capital management.) 🎯 Target: 1.3268 ❌ Stop Loss: • Close above 1.3728 ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: • > 1:2 💡 Your view? Does GBPUSD reject the 1.36 resistance zone and rotate lower toward 1.3268, or will thin holiday liquidity fuel a squeeze higher first? 👇 Also, Merry Christmas :))
Short
by Master_Hunter
3
GBP/USD at a Decision Point: Breakout Potential or Another RangeGBP/USD is currently trading inside a clearly defined range structure, with price compressing between a well-respected support zone around 1.3450 and a resistance zone near 1.3490–1.3500. Recent price action shows a sharp recovery from the lower boundary, but upside momentum has stalled again as price re-enters the prior resistance area. This behavior suggests the market is not trending, but rotating liquidity within the range. From a technical perspective, the rejection from the resistance zone is technically clean. Price failed to hold above the short-term equilibrium and slipped back below the mid-range, indicating that buyers lack conviction at higher levels. The moving averages are flattening and overlapping, reinforcing the idea of balance rather than trend. Until a decisive break occurs, upside moves should be treated as corrective, not impulsive. The bullish scenario only becomes valid if GBP/USD can break and hold above the 1.3490–1.3500 resistance zone, followed by acceptance above that level. In that case, upside expansion could open toward 1.3510 → 1.3525, where higher-timeframe supply is located. Without that confirmation, any push higher remains vulnerable to rejection. On the bearish / range-continuation scenario, failure to reclaim resistance keeps price rotating back toward the 1.3450 support zone. A clean breakdown below this support would expose deeper downside toward 1.3430 and below, extending the range rather than reversing the broader structure. From a macro standpoint, GBP remains sensitive to the USD side of the equation. Persistent USD resilience—supported by relatively restrictive financial conditions and cautious Fed messaging—continues to cap upside in GBP/USD. At the same time, the Bank of England’s stance remains restrictive but growth concerns limit aggressive GBP inflows. This macro backdrop favors choppy, range-bound price action, not clean directional trends. Summary: GBP/USD is in a neutral-to-range environment. The market is waiting for confirmation. A sustained break above resistance is required to unlock upside continuation; otherwise, the higher-probability outcome remains range rotation back toward support. Patience and confirmation are key at this level.
Long
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
2
GBPUSDPrice is currently respecting a well-defined ascending trendline, showing a clear bullish market structure with higher highs and higher lows. GBPUSD has pulled back into a previous demand / support zone, aligning with the trendline, which suggests this move is a healthy retracement rather than a reversal. Buyers have previously stepped in at this area, making it a high-probability zone for continuation. If price holds above the highlighted support, I am expecting a bullish continuation toward the next key resistance levels above. The first target is the prior resistance zone, followed by a potential extension toward the upper resistance area if momentum remains strong.
Long
by KB-FX
1
Potential bearish drop?GBP/USD is reacting off the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3472 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 1.3533 Why we like it: There is a multi-swing high resistance level. Take profit: 1.3351 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by Vantage
GBPUSD – Weekly 4H Insights - Trade Scenarios 1. Fundamental Context (Desk View) - Policy convergence: Fed and BoE are both past the hiking peak and into cautious, data-dependent easing. No clean one-way policy divergence. - Growth mix: US data is softening from “exceptional” to “normal”; UK growth is mediocre but not collapsing. That keeps GBP from being aggressively sold, but also caps sustained rallies. - Inflation & real yields: Disinflation continues; real yields are off the peak but still positive. Favors a range-trading regime rather than a runaway GBP trend. - Risk sentiment: Risk-off spikes support USD; calm risk conditions allow GBP to trade the upper half of its range. Net: No dominant macro driver. Cable is a two-way market where location and structure matter more than headlines. -------------------------------------------------- 2. Technical 4H Structure - Price trades inside a broader descending channel and is currently near the upper boundary around 1.35. - The rally from ~1.30 is a corrective leg up within that channel. - At the top of this leg, price printed a “Weak High” near 1.353–1.355, followed by a 4H CHoCH down (impulsive bearish break of prior lows). - Current price (~1.347) sits just below that weak high, in the upper third of the channel: classic premium. -------------------------------------------------- 3. Key Zones (Premium – Equilibrium – Discount) - Premium (sell territory): • 1.348–1.358 = upper channel, weak high, fresh 4H supply. - Equilibrium (mid / mean): • 1.336–1.344 = channel midline, prior consolidation. - Discount (buy territory for tactical longs): • 1.324–1.332 = shallow discount / intraday demand. • 1.308–1.315 = deep discount / lower channel + 4H demand. -------------------------------------------------- 4. Ideal Scenario – Day Trade Bias: Fade premium while respecting the 4H CHoCH down. Setup: 1) Price retests 1.350–1.355 (premium / weak high / channel resistance). 2) Liquidity sweep above prior highs. 3) M5/M15 prints CHoCH down + BOS. Day-trade short: - Entry: 1.350–1.355 after sweep + intraday CHoCH. - Stop: Above session/channel high (≈1.358–1.360). - Targets: • TP1: 1.343–1.344 (equilibrium). • TP2: 1.336–1.338 (lower edge of 4H consolidation). -------------------------------------------------- 5. Ideal Scenario – Swing Trade Bias: Use upper channel as structural resistance; position for a move back to mid/lower band. Setup: 1) Either: • Lower high forms in 1.347–1.352 below the weak high, or • Final stop-run above ~1.355 that fails and closes back inside on 4H. 2) 4H shows strong bearish rejection. Swing short: - Entry: 1.347–1.352 on 4H rejection / H1 CHoCH down. - Invalidation: Clean acceptance above ~1.360 (channel break and hold). - Targets: • TP1: 1.333–1.335 (equilibrium). • TP2: 1.320–1.323. • TP3 (extension): 1.308–1.315 (lower channel / deep discount). Desk takeaway: Fundamentals favor a range; location is unfriendly for new longs. This week we prefer selling premium near 1.35–1.355 with intraday confirmation, and using sustained breaks from equilibrium to build swing shorts toward 1.32–1.31 inside the larger channel.
by WeAxes