Bullish Momentum Expected Next Week, With Geopolitical tensions 🌍 Fundamental Catalyst – Middle East Tensions Driving Gold Higher
Gold is gaining strong safe-haven demand due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, further amplified by a recent U.S. military strike on Iran. These developments have sparked fears of a broader regional conflict, pushing investors to seek the stability that gold traditionally offers during periods of uncertainty. We may again see an All-Time New High of gold because things are getting closer to a new WWIII, which we never want, so these tensions will boost the gold prices.
Key Fundamentals Supporting Bullish Gold:
🛡️ Safe-Haven Demand: Gold historically rallies during military conflict and political instability.
💥 Risk-Off Sentiment: Equities may weaken while commodities like gold attract capital inflow.
🔐 Market Uncertainty: Any further escalation will likely trigger another wave of buying pressure in gold.
With this level of geopolitical uncertainty, we may soon witness a new all-time high (ATH) in gold prices. If further military actions occur, we could potentially see an explosive move of 600 to 1000 pips as early as tomorrow.
At the same time, while we analyze the market and act accordingly, our hope remains that peace will soon prevail. These conflicts are deeply painful and harmful to humanity. Let’s all hope for de-escalation and the return of stability — not just for the markets, but for the well-being of people across the world.
Technical Overview:
> The chart shows a descending channel pattern, which is still valid, but the thing is now gold will follow fundamental, not technical levels.
> Don't need to wait for the breakout of this channel, you can enter to buy a trade from here once the market opens.
> Regarding the targets we mentioned below.
>> TP1: 3400 <<
>> Final Target Zone: 3445–3450 <<
: NOTE
Given the geopolitical backdrop and historical behavior of gold in such environments, a bullish trend is expected in the coming sessions. Traders and investors should monitor developments closely, as any further escalation may act as a strong catalyst for gold to surge.
Thank you traders, for reading our idea. If any of you want to suggest something, must comment here as we can explore more. If you agreed with my idea, so must support us for more updates.
XAUUSD trade ideas
The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated!
Let's take a look at the news that has affected the trend of gold in the past two days:
1. Escalation of geopolitical conflict:
Yesterday, Iran launched the twentieth round of large-scale missile and drone attacks on Israel, using the "Khyber" missile to attack targets in Israel for the first time. At the same time, the United States launched cruise missiles and giant earth-penetrating bombs at Iranian nuclear facilities through submarines, which directly stimulated the market's risk aversion and pushed gold to open sharply higher. In addition, Iran claimed that it had launched a large number of drones and warned that Israel's air defense system was close to saturation. The war in the Middle East has entered a high-risk stage, further strengthening the safe-haven attribute of gold.
2. Trump's remarks and market sentiment game:
Last Friday, Trump's remarks about "the deployment of the third aircraft carrier in the Middle East" were accused of being "lies". The actual deployment plan was a conventional military arrangement, which led to a cooling of the market's expectations for the escalation of geopolitical risks, triggering a brief withdrawal of safe-haven buying, and gold failed to rise in advance in the late trading. However, after the actual outbreak of the conflict over the weekend, risk aversion re-dominated the market, forming a "high-opening gap" pattern.
3. Great power game and long-term risks:
The US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is aimed at preventing it from possessing nuclear capabilities, while Iran's counterattack (such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz and expanding proxy wars) may lead to a global energy crisis. China and Russia's strategic involvement in the Middle East (such as Russia's supply of air defense systems and Chinese reconnaissance ships appearing in the Persian Gulf) has exacerbated geopolitical complexity and provided support for gold in the medium and long term.
4. Technical analysis of gold:
Affected by the situation in the Middle East, gold opened high and fell again on Monday, just like last Monday. Today, it hit the highest level of 3398 and is currently fluctuating between 3350 and 3375. After gold bottomed out and rebounded in the late trading last Friday, it directly rushed up in the Asian session. The disk just tested the previous trend line pressure level. The overall momentum is still downward. This week's idea is still to short at highs! The upper pressure level focuses on the 3375 area, and the strong pressure level looks at the Asian session high point of 3385~3395 area. There is a market that lures more gold in the Asian session, so the gold bulls may be another illusion, so the high position may be a lure for more gold, and the Asian session rebound continues to be short.
The 4-hour moving average of gold still has no signs of turning, indicating that the volume of gold bulls is not sustained, and it just took advantage of the risk aversion stimulus to rush upward, but it eventually returned in vain. In terms of the 1-hour chart, the short-term downward trend broke upward and pulled up to around 3398. Currently, around 3340 is the double bottom position of the hourly chart. If it goes down further, the support will focus on the support near 3320. Therefore, I think today's short-term may still struggle back and forth within the range, but the trend this week is still optimistic about the bears! Overall, today's upper short-term focus on gold is 3390-3400 resistance, and the lower short-term focus is 3345-3335 support. (Personal advice, for reference only, the specific points are subject to the actual market) The daily analysis strategy will be announced, and you can check it yourself.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis🟢 Current Market Overview
Price: $3,377.61
The market is currently trading within a defined range, showing consolidation above a strong support zone.
🔍 Key Technical Levels
Support Zone: $3,360 – $3,375
This level has been tested multiple times and held firmly, indicating strong buying interest 📈.
Resistance Zone: $3,435 – $3,455
Price has previously rejected this zone, suggesting active sellers in this area ⚠️.
🧠 Price Action Insight
The recent price structure shows a pullback into support after a strong bullish move.
The current consolidation suggests accumulation before a potential breakout.
A bullish reversal pattern seems to be forming near support, pointing toward a possible rally toward resistance.
📈 Projected Move
📍 Scenario: Bounce from support zone → Break toward resistance.
The marked projection curve suggests price may retest support, then rally to the $3,440–$3,455 resistance area.
🧾 Trading Outlook
Bias: Bullish (above $3,360)
Entry Zone: $3,365 – $3,375
Target: $3,440 – $3,455
Invalidation: Break and close below $3,355 (would indicate weakness) 🚫
📅 Fundamental Context
Multiple high-impact USD events are approaching 🇺🇸 (noted at the bottom of the chart). These could cause volatility and may act as catalysts for the breakout.
✅ Conclusion
The market is currently in a bullish accumulation phase above strong support. As long as this level holds, a move toward the resistance zone remains the high-probability scenario. Monitor closely for confirmation via bullish candlesticks or volume increase.
bullish wedge inside a rising channel-double trap for bearsInside the major upward channel, gold formed a falling wedge — and, of course, faked a breakdown. But the move reversed quickly: price reclaimed the wedge, surged on volume, and held above the key 3363–3368 area. This isn't just a bounce — it's a structural reclaim in line with the broader trend.
Price is now in the upper part of the rising channel and has broken a local downtrend line, reinforcing the bullish signal. Consolidation around 3380–3395 might be the last pause before acceleration. Above that lies a volume gap — no resistance until 3452.
MACD is flipping bullish, RSI turning upward, and volume confirms smart money presence. Classic: trap below, breakout above. As long as 3363 holds — longs remain in control.
XAUUSD:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals today have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Today's opening gapped up to 3396, then fell all the way back to 3347 before stabilizing and rallying to 3380—our long strategy at 3350 achieved perfect profits. The basic trend aligns with last week's pattern, dominated by pullback rebounds.
Channel Resistance: Key pressure lies at 3397–3404.
Support Zones: Monitor rebounds at 3360–3365 and 3355–3350; maintain a bullish bias on dips.
Trading Strategy:
buy@3350-3360
TP:3380-3400
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Gold prices are going through a crazy shakeout!Market news:
On Monday (June 23), spot gold fell after opening sharply higher. The US dollar index hit a three-week high, while US stock index futures fell nearly 1%. Earlier, the United States launched a strike on three nuclear facilities in Iran. The US State Department issued a global alert, advising American citizens overseas to be vigilant. Affected by the escalating tensions in the Middle East, international gold and crude oil both opened sharply higher on Monday. Investors are worried that the escalation of the situation in the Middle East may push up energy prices, thereby exacerbating global inflationary pressures. There are too many long orders at high levels in gold at present, and the market will not rise easily. The current international situation is so tense that gold opened high and fell slowly. It is difficult to rebound sharply in this situation. The Federal Reserve did not immediately start the easing policy, and the strengthening of the US dollar exacerbated the selling pressure. As the global economic vane continues to turn, this week is destined to be a highlight moment in the financial market. From geopolitical tensions to the latest trends in the global purchasing managers' index (PMI), to the heavy speeches of senior central bank officials, traders and investors will face an information-intensive test.
Technical Review:
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and released hawkish signals. It is expected that there will be only two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, and the interest rate cut expectations for 2026 and 2027 will be postponed. The market's expectations for the pace of interest rate cuts have been revised, and the actual interest rate expectations have risen. The US dollar index rose and fell, hitting a weekly high and then fell again. The situation in the Middle East continues to ferment, the conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, the risk of US intervention has increased, and the risk aversion sentiment has heated up again, causing gold to open sharply higher in early trading on Monday. The gold daily chart jumped high and rose sharply by 3396. The price is above the MA10-day moving average of 3370, the MA7/10-day moving average continues to open upward, the RSI indicator is above the middle axis, and the price remains in the upper track of the Bollinger Band channel. The short-term four-hour chart MA10/7-day moving average glues the price at 3365/62, and the 26-period Bollinger Band closes. The hourly moving average golden cross opens upward, the Bollinger Band opens upward, and the RSI indicator 50 value runs above the middle axis. The rise in gold risk aversion has boosted gold prices. The trading strategy at the beginning of the week is to buy at low prices and sell at high prices.
Today's analysis:
Gold opened high and went high in the Asian session under the risk aversion stimulus of the weekend, but the good times did not last long. Gold started to rise and fall directly. Gold has a temptation to buy more, so the gold bulls may be short-lived again. Then the high gold price may be a temptation to buy. The market is changing rapidly, especially this kind of market stimulated by news. We must pay attention to the sustainability after the news stimulation. Gold buying is short-lived, and gold selling is still very likely. Continue to sell after the intraday rebound. The gold 1-hour moving average still has no signs of turning, indicating that the amount of gold buying is not continuous, and it is just taking advantage of the risk aversion stimulus to rush upward directly, but in the end it was unsuccessful. Gold rushed to the 3397 line only to fall below 3380 again, so the gold 3380 line did not effectively stand firm, and the intraday rebound was under pressure below 3380 and could continue to sell.
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 3337-3340, stop loss at 3328, target at 3370-3390;
Sell short-term gold at 3370-3380, stop loss at 3390, target at 3340-3320;
Key points:
First support level: 3340, second support level: 3328, third support level: 3315
First resistance level: 3377, second resistance level: 3396, third resistance level: 3410
Analysis of gold market trend on June 23:
Core viewpoint:
Gold may continue to fluctuate at a high level and be weak next week, focusing on the breakthrough direction of the 3340-3395 range. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve suppresses gold prices, but geopolitical risk aversion and the decline of the US dollar form support. The technical side shows a long-short tug-of-war situation, and we need to be vigilant about the risk of breaking.
1. Analysis of key influencing factors
Federal Reserve policy suppression
The dot plot shows that there will be only two interest rate cuts in 2025, and long-term interest rate expectations will be raised, weakening the attractiveness of interest-free assets such as gold.
Risk point: If US economic data (such as PCE and unemployment rate) weaken significantly, hawkish expectations may be reversed.
Geopolitics and risk aversion
The situation in the Middle East, trade frictions and other events still provide bottom support for gold, limiting the downside space.
The trend of the US dollar is differentiated
The US dollar index rose and fell, and if it weakens further, it may ease the pressure on gold.
2. Key technical signals
The watershed between long and short positions
Support level: 3350-3340 (lower track of 4-hour channel), break down to 3250.
Resistance level: 3385-3395 (short-term trend line suppression), break through to test the previous high of 3450.
Indicator divergence
Weekly: MACD death cross appears initially, if confirmed, it will start mid-term adjustment.
Daily line: The momentum column turned to decline, but the volume did not fall, so be wary of false breakthroughs.
4 hours: The channel support near 3340 is the last line of defense for bulls, and if it fails, it will accelerate downward.
3. Trading strategy suggestions
Scenario 1: Range oscillation (probability 60%)
Operation logic: 3340-3395 range high sell low buy.
Short order: enter near 3385, stop loss above 3400, target 3350.
Long order: try long with a light position near 3340, stop loss 3320, target 3370-3380.
Scenario 2: Breaking support (30% probability)
Trigger condition: daily closing price is lower than 3340.
Follow-up strategy: short at 3360, stop loss at 3380, target 3250 (midline).
Scenario 3: Breaking resistance (10% probability)
Trigger condition: stand firm at 3395 and the dollar weakens.
Follow-up strategy: go long when it falls back to 3380, stop loss at 3365, target at 3450. Risk warning
Data risk: focus on US PCE inflation, GDP revisions and other data next week. If unexpectedly weak, gold may rebound.
Geopolitical emergencies: if the conflict escalates, safe-haven buying may push gold prices up rapidly.
Liquidity risk: month-end capital flows may amplify volatility, and positions need to be controlled.
Summary: Gold is short-term technically bearish but has not broken. It is recommended to focus on rebounding high and strictly stop loss. If 3340 is effectively broken, the trend will turn bearish; otherwise, if the support is held, there is still the possibility of a volatile upward trend.
XAUUSD-Bearish Outlook and Price StructureA bearish outlook for gold (XAUUSD) on the 1-hour timeframe, with a bias toward the 3,100 area, targeting the highlighted demand zones.
Price-Movement Structure
We observe a three-wave corrective pattern that appears complete at the 3,494.98 high. Key observations:
- **Wave (A)** : Initial correction from the major low.
- **Wave (B)** : Complex sideways consolidation.
- **Wave (C)** : Extension to new highs, creating liquidity.
The current price action suggests potential institutional distribution at the highs. I am expecting a drop to approximately 3,349.94.
However, fundamentals such as interest rates, dollar strength, and geopolitical risks remain key drivers of bullish optimism.
Gold Take All Stop losses,Are You Ready To Sell ?Here is my 1H Gold Chart and this is my opinion , the price opened this week with massive wick to upside to take all stop losses and then moved to downside very hard and aggressive , we have a very good Res that we sell from it last week 3377.00 , it`s still strong and forced the price many times to respect it so it still my fav level to sell it again today if the price touch it and give me a good bearish price action to confirm the entry and we can targeting 300 pips at least . if we have a daily closure above my res then we will think about buying instead of selling , but until now i`m looking to sell it from the level i mentioned .
Gold will open higher next week!!!
The current short-term focus is still on the Middle East issue. The conflict between Iran and Israel continues to ferment. Trump announced that the US military launched strikes on Iran's three major nuclear facilities, Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and dropped 6 bunker-buster bombs. The US's participation in the war means that the Iran-Israel escalation is in the middle of the war. This news instantly ignited the Middle East powder keg. Iran responded quickly, saying that it had completed the evacuation of personnel from relevant nuclear facilities before the attack, and made a strong statement that every American citizen and military personnel in the region were listed as legitimate targets. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran directly pointed out that the US behavior violated international law and emphasized that the attack could not stop the development of its nuclear industry.
The development of the situation is full of uncertainty and gunpowder. Iran is very likely to launch a retaliatory attack on the US military bases and related interests in the Gulf region, and the Iraqi armed groups allied with Iran are also at risk of being involved in the battle. It is reported that the United States is accelerating the evacuation of diplomats from Iraq, which indirectly reflects the tension of the situation. In Yemen, the Houthi armed forces have made it clear that if Iran is attacked, they will break the brief ceasefire with the United States and start attacking American ships. Although Hezbollah in Lebanon has not taken action yet, it has released a dangerous signal last week, suggesting that it will support Iran in an "appropriate way". Once it intervenes, the conflict with Israel that has caused devastating damage is likely to revive. What is more worthy of attention is that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, as the throat of about 20% of the world's oil transportation, this move will hit the global economy hard and will also bring a fatal blow to energy exporters in the Gulf region.
Now that the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated sharply, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has quickly activated its safe-haven value in this environment full of uncertainty and risk. Whether it is a direct conflict between the United States and Iran or a possible chain reaction, the market is filled with panic and drives funds to gold. Therefore, driven by the strong demand for safe-haven, gold is expected to have a counterattack opportunity next week.
Gold fell first and then rose on Friday. It fluctuated and fell in the Asian session, and the US session fell to around 3340 for the second time and then rose. The US participation in the war means that the conflict between Iran and Israel will escalate. Gold is expected to open higher next Monday. For the operation strategy next week, there is no doubt that it is mainly buying in line with the trend, buying on pullbacks, buying on breakthroughs, and avoiding short orders. Pay attention to the pull-up of the Asian session on Monday. If there is a strong pull-up, you can choose to buy more when there is a pullback in the European and American sessions. The strong pressure above is in the 3400-3410 area, and the upward space will be opened after a breakthrough.
Gold prices rebounded after the Fed meeting!
The trend of gold on Friday is still in line with my analysis. I will inform you that gold is mainly rebounding from the bottom on Friday. Don't chase the low position. As a result, gold hit the lowest level of 3340 and then fluctuated upward, reaching the highest level of 3374. It can be said that the market on Friday was not big, and it was mainly range-bound. We also went long at 3343-3345 and 3347-3353 many times, all of which ended with profit. Although there was no sudden increase of dozens of dollars, it was relatively satisfactory for Friday's market. I believe that friends who follow me can see that we will continue to go long next week. After all, the rebound trend on Friday still needs to continue next week. If your current gold operation is not ideal, I hope my article can help your investment. Welcome to communicate!
From the 4-hour analysis chart, the support below is around 3340-3345, and the short-term resistance above is around 3380-3385. Focus on the suppression of the 3408-3415 line. The overall trend remains unchanged, and the main tone of retracement and long participation remains unchanged. In the middle position, watch more and do less, and follow orders cautiously, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the trading session, so please pay attention to it in time.
Gold will go long at the 3345-3353 line, with the target at the 3380-3383 line, and the break will look at the 3408-3415 line;
There are still profit opportunities in short selling!As gold continues to rebound, bulls are reversing their decline. After gold broke through the 3370-3380 area, the current market consensus on 3350-3340 as the bottom area was strengthened. However, as gold fell back under pressure several times after the rebound, it proved that there was still a certain amount of selling pressure above, and it was obvious that the resistance was in the 3395-3405 area; once gold broke through this resistance area, gold bulls would regain the upper hand and are expected to continue to probe the 3320-3330 area. However, before gold effectively broke through the 3395-3405 area, bulls and bears would still fiercely compete for control, so it is still in a wide range of fluctuations.
Therefore, before gold broke through the 3395-3405 area, we can still appropriately short gold in the 3385-3395 area, and expect gold to retreat to the 3375-3365 area in the short term. In trading, we must pay attention to the changes in the rhythm of gold. Once gold chooses a direction and makes a breakthrough, we need to change our trading strategy!
Gold Outlook: Bullish Bias Builds🧠 Combined Market Intelligence Report
Focus Asset: XAU/USD (Gold/USD)
Current Price: $3,381.65
🌍 Macro Overview: Key Weekly Market Themes
🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence
Federal Reserve: Held rates steady; Powell struck a more cautious tone. Seven members now forecast no cuts in 2025. Rate cut probability softened early in the week, then revived after Fed Governor Waller hinted at a possible July cut.
Swiss National Bank (SNB): Cut rates to 0.00%, surprising markets and signaling potential for negative rates if needed.
Bank of Japan (BOJ): Maintained rates at 0.50%, slowed bond tapering, signaled caution amid trade and inflation uncertainty.
ECB & BOE: Mostly neutral/dovish tones. ECB may cut in 6 months; BOE remained split.
🧩 Implication: Diverging monetary paths and policy uncertainty support demand for neutral reserve assets like gold.
⚔️ Geopolitical Risk: Israel-Iran Conflict
Markets opened bullish on gold due to de-escalation signals from Iran, but risk-off sentiment returned midweek after:
Trump’s “unconditional surrender” demand
Iran’s “irreparable damage” threat
Reports of possible U.S. strikes
By Friday, Trump hit “pause” for 2 weeks of diplomacy.
🧩 Implication: Geopolitical tension is unresolved. Gold remains a top safe-haven hedge as military conflict risk persists.
📉 Macro Data Weakness
U.S. Retail Sales: -0.9% (vs. -0.4% expected)
U.S. Industrial Production: -0.2%
Philly Fed Manufacturing: -4.0
UK Retail Sales: -2.7% m/m
Eurozone Wage Growth: 3.4% y/y (missed expectations)
Australia Jobs: -2.5k (vs. +15k expected)
🧩 Implication: Global slowdown signals strengthen gold’s appeal as a defensive and inflation-hedging asset.
📊 Technical Outlook for XAU/USD (Gold)
🔹 Current Price: $3,381.65
🔸 Key Indicators (1D)
Indicator Value Signal
RSI 55.65 Slightly bullish (>50)
Stochastic %K / %D 51.23 / 53.33 Neutral zone
Williams %R -44.18 Mid-range, no strong signal
Bollinger Mid-Band 3,381.55 Price = BB midline (balance point)
Keltner Mid-Channel 3,381.94 Matching price (consolidation)
📍 Key Price Levels
Support: $3,360 → $3,345
Resistance: $3,410 → $3,430
Breakout Point: Close above $3,410 confirms upside momentum
Breakdown Point: Close below $3,360 confirms renewed selling pressure
📈 Forecast for Gold (XAU/USD) – Next 1–5 Days
🔮 Fundamental Bias: 🔼 Mildly Bullish
Unresolved geopolitical tension = sustained safe-haven flows
Global economic softness = pressure on real yields
Mixed Fed tone, SNB cut = supportive macro backdrop for gold
📉 Technical Bias: 🔁 Neutral to Bullish
RSI above 50, price above major midlines = buyers still in control
Consolidation at key pivot level ($3,381) suggests accumulation, not exhaustion
If price breaks above $3,410 and sustains, rally toward $3,430–3,460 is likely
If price breaks below $3,360, watch for a retest of $3,345–3,330 support zone
🎯 Final XAU/USD Forecast Summary
Time Frame Direction Price Targets Confidence Risk Catalyst
1–2 Days 🔁 Sideways-to-Bullish $3,390 → $3,410 Moderate News on Fed, Trump-Iran
3–5 Days 🔼 Bullish $3,430 → $3,460 High Breakout + geopolitics
Bearish Case 🔽 If < $3,360 $3,345 → $3,330 Moderate Peace deal + strong USD
⚠️ Trade Considerations
If bullish breakout (> $3,410) → potential swing trade toward $3,460
If failed breakout (< $3,360) → reversion trade toward $3,330
Avoid aggressive positions until volatility picks up, as current setup is range-bound with breakout potential.
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
GOLD Growth Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD is trading along the
Rising support and is already
Making a bullish rebound so
As we are bullish biased due
To the strong uptrend we
Will be expecting a further
Bullish move up on Gold
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold was blocked again at 3393, and a buy signal appeared.Analysis believes that: In the short term, gold will focus on the resistance area of 34011-3423 US dollars above, and focus on the important resistance of 3433 after breaking through, and focus on the support of 3370-3362 US dollars below.
Trading suggestion: Consider retracement layout of long orders first, and high shorts as a supplement.
Gold prices are expected to trade between the support level of $3,370 an ounce and the resistance level of $3,405 an ounce today.
If you want to follow the accurate real-time trading signals every day, you can leave a message for Henry. Henry will make your trading and profit easier.
FX:XAUUSD ICMARKETS:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD CAPITALCOM:GOLD
Gold's safe-haven appeal increased. (Exclusive news)1. Iran launched the twentieth round of large-scale missile and drone attacks on Israel, using the Khyber missile for the first time to attack targets in Israel. At the same time, the United States launched 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles and 12 MOP bunker-buster bombs at Iranian nuclear facilities through submarines, which directly stimulated the market's risk aversion and pushed gold to open sharply higher. In addition, Iran claimed to have launched a large number of unmanned aerial vehicles and warned Israel that its air defense system was close to saturation. The war in the Middle East entered a high-risk stage, further strengthening the safe-haven attribute of gold.
2. Trump's remarks and market sentiment game:
Last Friday, Trump's remarks about "the third aircraft carrier deployed in the Middle East" were accused of being "lies". The actual deployment plan was a conventional military arrangement, which led to a cooling of market expectations for the escalation of geopolitical risks, triggering a brief withdrawal of safe-haven buying, and gold failed to rise in advance in the late trading. However, after the actual outbreak of the conflict over the weekend, risk aversion re-dominated the market, forming a "high-opening gap" pattern.
3. Great power game and long-term risks: The US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is aimed at preventing it from possessing nuclear capabilities, while Iran's counterattack (such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz and expanding proxy wars) may lead to a global energy crisis. China and Russia's strategic involvement in the Middle East (such as Russia's provision of air defense systems and Chinese reconnaissance ships appearing in the Persian Gulf) has exacerbated geopolitical complexity and provided support for gold in the medium and long term. Technical analysis of gold:
Gold in the US market rose due to risk aversion. On Monday, gold showed a wide range of fluctuations between long and short positions. Spot gold once jumped by nearly $30 (0.8%), reaching $3,388.70/ounce. This was mainly due to the US weekend and the Iranian attack, which led to an increase in gold risk aversion. The US market then fluctuated and fell, and then repeatedly stretched to the high point of 3,392. Investors are worried that the escalation of the situation in the Middle East may push up prices, thereby exacerbating global inflationary pressures. The strength at the beginning of the week determines the continuation of the long and short positions, so you can still go long at a low price if it falls today, and at the same time pay attention to the closing of the daily line. Don't rush to buy in the short cycle, it is expected that there will be more decline, and the support below is around 3330-3300.
The current gold price is at a high level, and the long trend remains unchanged. You may as well wait for the correction before buying the bottom. PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD VELOCITY:GOLD ICMARKETS:XAUUSD CMCMARKETS:GOLD EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
The situation remains tense. Will gold challenge 3400?Gold opened higher and then fell today. After hitting $3346, it stabilized and rose, and hit the high point of $3393 again. Although the US air strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities have exacerbated geopolitical tensions, the US dollar has stabilized at a high level supported by the Fed's hawkish expectations, limiting gold bulls. The market outlook is still focused on high adjustments.
Market impact:
The current market is focusing on the upcoming US June PMI data, which will serve as an important indicator of economic prospects. Once it performs strongly, it will further strengthen the bullish position of the US dollar, and gold may continue to be under pressure. On the contrary, if the PMI is lower than expected, gold is expected to receive short-term support.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD FX:XAUUSD ICMARKETS:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan – Monday, June 23, 2025Current Price: 3368.76
Trend: Bearish on H4 | Corrective on H1 | Weak Bullish Attempt on M15
Market Context: Gold is consolidating under EMA pressure after FOMC. Price is pinned inside a key flip zone, awaiting Monday’s fundamental triggers.
🔸 HTF Overview (D1, H4, H1)
📰 Macro + Economic Context – Week of June 23–28:
This is a high-impact week for USD with Fed speeches, inflation, and growth data. Monday opens with caution:
Monday, June 23
🟠 FOMC Member Waller Speaks
🔴 Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
🟠 Existing Home Sales
Tuesday, June 24
🔴 Fed Chair Powell Testifies
🟠 CB Consumer Confidence
🟠 Richmond Manufacturing Index
Wednesday, June 25
🔴 Powell Testimony (Day 2)
🟠 New Home Sales
Thursday, June 26
🔴 Final GDP q/q
🔴 Unemployment Claims
🟠 Durable Goods Orders
🟠 Pending Home Sales
Friday, June 27
🔴 Core PCE Price Index
🟠 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
📌 Monday is lighter in impact, but PMI data and Waller’s speech may spark the week’s directional bias. Avoid trading blindly into PMI spikes.
H4 Structure & Bias:
Bearish trend intact: Lower High = 3418, Lower Low = 3311
EMAs (21/50/100) aligned downward — price capped below 3380
RSI still under 60 = no bullish momentum
Rejection zone remains valid at 3406–3420 (H4 OB)
Strong demand expected at 3340–3352 and extreme at 3310–3288
🔸 LTF Precision (M30, M15)
Price compressing around 3365–3372
RSI around 56 → indecision
No bullish HH above 3380 = still within bearish control
EMA flattening → prepare for trap setups around NY open
🧭 Trade Scenarios
🔻 Sell Zone – 3406–3420
H4 OB, FVG top, liquidity above 3405
Entry: 3412
SL: 3426
TP1: 3312
TP2: 3288
TP3: 3265
🧠 Wait for sweep or strong bearish reaction — no early entries.
⚠️ Flip Zone – 3360–3380
No-trade zone: EMA cluster + mid-FVG
Only use for confirmations, not entries
🟢 Buy Zone – 3340–3352
OB + demand + Fib retracement
Entry: 3348
SL: 3334
TP1: 3448
TP2: 3472
TP3: 3490
🟢 Buy Zone – 3310–3288
Below LL sweep (3311)
Deep liquidity + OB demand
Entry: 3298
SL: 3280
TP1: 3365
TP2: 3405
TP3: 3440
📍 Key Structural Levels – June 23
Level Type Role
3460 Bull Trap Limit Irrational spike area
3445 FOMC Unfilled wick – trap zone
3426 Sell Zone Risk protection above OB
3418 H4 LH Confirmed bearish structure
3410 OB Midpoint Micro-rejection inside OB
3395 Previous HH Inducement target
3384 FVG Top Minor LTF rejection
3360–3380 ⚠️ Flip Zone MA/FVG compression – avoid entries
3352 OB entry edge Buy Zone 1 upper limit
3340 OB base Buy Zone 1 key level
3311 H4 LL Confirms bear structure
3300 Round Level Psychological + liquidity
3288 OB base Final demand structure zone
3265 Final TP Bearish extension only
✅ Final Action Plan
📉 Stay bearish below 3380 unless a clean HH + OB support forms
⚠️ Avoid trading inside 3360–3380 flip zone during NY PMI data
🛒 Longs valid only from 3340 or 3310 with confirmation (RSI, PA, OB)
🧠 Focus on structure integrity and clean OB rejections only
💬 Will you fade the 3412 OB or wait for the sniper bounce at 3348?
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