Monero Flips Bullish Market Structure — $473 Target in FocusMonero has shifted its daily market structure to bullish after reclaiming the $357 level as support. The confirmed break of structure increases the probability of a continuation move toward the $473 high-timeframe resistance.
Key Highlights:
- Bullish market structure break: Higher low followed by a confirmed higher high.
- $357 support flip: Previous resistance now acting as strong demand.
- $473 resistance: Next major upside level if momentum continues.
Monero’s recent price action has confirmed a bullish shift in the daily market structure. The chart shows a clear higher low followed by a breakout that established a new higher high, confirming a break of market structure (MSB). This type of structural shift typically signals a transition from consolidation into a trending environment where buyers begin to control the market.
One of the most important technical developments is the reclaim of the $357 level. This zone previously acted as a key resistance area but has now flipped into support. When resistance converts into support, it often signals strong buyer demand and increases the probability of continued upside momentum.
As long as Monero maintains support above $357 on a daily candle-closing basis, the bullish structure remains intact. Holding this level could allow price to continue expanding higher within the current trend. The next major level traders are watching is the high-timeframe resistance near $473, which becomes the logical upside target if bullish momentum continues to build.
In-depth trading ideas
XMR - Consolidation Wedge at $348! U.S. Treasury Softens Privacy
What's up traders! 👋
Monero consolidating at $348.81 (+2.34%) in converging wedge pattern. Testing descending resistance (purple) vs ascending support (blue). U.S. Treasury softened stance on privacy (acknowledged legitimate uses for mixers), XMR reclaimed $357 support (bullish daily structure), funding rates positive (traders positioning long). Resistance $365-$375. Two scenarios: breakout above $375 to $400+ OR rejection, retest FVG $338-$345 then continuation. Bullish structure, coiling for move.
The Setup
XMR at $348.81 in converging wedge (purple descending resistance, blue ascending support). Consolidating between resistance $365-$375 (red zone) and support $330-$338 (green zone). FVG zones: $345-$355 (gray). Compression = breakout imminent. Two scenarios: break $375 to $400+ OR reject, pullback to FVG $338-$345, then push to $375-$400.
Key Levels
Resistance: $365-$375 (critical / 23.6% Fib), $380 (confirmation), $400 (psychological), $448 (major)
Support: $357 (reclaimed / bullish structure), $345-$355 (FVG), $338.70 (50% Fib / key), $330 (demand), $276 (line in sand)
News - March 10, 2026 (BULLISH DOMINANT)
BULLISH (DOMINANT):
• U.S. TREASURY SOFTENS STANCE: Acknowledged privacy tools (mixers) serve "legitimate financial privacy purposes" (departure from hardline rhetoric, aligns with relaxed regulatory approach)
• XMR reclaimed $357 support (flipped resistance to support = bullish daily structure confirmed)
• Funding rates POSITIVE (+0.0073%) = traders positioning long, rising bullish sentiment
• Money Flow Index rebounded from oversold (25 → 50) = capital inflows returning
• Awesome Oscillator shrinking negative bars = weakening bearish momentum
• Selling pressure fading (February dump exhausted)
• Community: "Best-looking 1-week chart in finance" (strong technical momentum)
• Delistings seen as BULLISH (purge of "paper XMR", forces real price discovery)
• Network Upgrade 19 (mid-2026) = protocol improvements, efficiency
• Jamtis integration research (long-term) = scalability, user experience upgrade
• Community funding active (CCS) = sustainable ecosystem growth
• XMR +2.34% today, outperforming BTC +1.12% (higher-beta asset)
• Broad market rally (Iran tensions easing, oil crash $119 → $86)
• Strong correlation with S&P 500 (macro-driven move, risk-on sentiment)
BEARISH/RISK:
• Resistance $375-$380 CRITICAL (must break for bullish continuation)
• Volume down -17.62% (price rise lacks conviction, no fresh capital surge)
• No coin-specific catalyst (move driven by macro, not XMR news)
• Social sentiment mildly bullish (5.2/10, not extreme)
• Overbought warnings (technical caution at resistance)
• EU ban on privacy coin listings by 2027 (regulatory risk persists)
• Chaikin Money Flow slightly negative (-0.03) = limited capital inflows
• Directional Movement Index weakening (bullish momentum fading)
• Failed January peak $802 (steep correction, now consolidating)
• Range-bound $276-$380 (sideways structure, waiting for catalyst)
• U.S. CPI data upcoming (macro trigger, volatility risk)
Two Scenarios
BREAKOUT TO $400+: Break $375-$380 with volume → Target $400 → $448. Triggers: U.S. Treasury stance attracts capital, reclaimed $357 holds, funding rates stay positive, CPI data benign, broad market rally continues, community optimism drives momentum, breakout above wedge resistance.
REJECTION THEN CONTINUATION: Reject $365-$375 → Pullback to FVG $338-$345 → Consolidate → Break $375 → Target $400-$448. Triggers: Profit-taking at resistance, volume weakness, healthy consolidation, then Treasury stance validates privacy narrative, macro rally resumes, wedge compression resolves up.
My Take
NEUTRAL/BULLISH. XMR consolidating at $348.81 in converging wedge (compression = move imminent). U.S. Treasury SOFTENED stance on privacy (acknowledged legitimate uses = MAJOR long-term bullish). XMR reclaimed $357 support (bullish daily structure). Funding rates positive (traders positioning long). MFI rebounded (capital returning). Selling pressure fading. Community: "Best chart in finance". Testing $365-$375 resistance. TRUE 50/50: Break $375 = $400+ target OR reject, pullback to FVG $338-$345, then continuation. Key: $357 support must hold. Wedge coiling for explosive move. Watch volume on breakout.
What do you think? Breakout or pullback first? Drop your take! 👇
🚀 Boost if this helped!
Not financial advice. DYOR.
The Mechanics Behind Every TradeThe Reality Behind Price Movement
Every time you click "buy" or "sell," you're participating in a complex ecosystem of orders, liquidity providers, and market mechanics. Understanding this microstructure gives you an edge most retail traders never develop.
Price doesn't move because of indicators or patterns. It moves because of order flow imbalances and liquidity dynamics.
The Core Components
1. The Order Book
A real-time list of all buy (bid) and sell (ask) orders at different price levels.
Bid Side: Buyers waiting to purchase
Ask Side: Sellers waiting to sell
Spread: The gap between highest bid and lowest ask
2. Market Participants
Market Makers:
Provide liquidity by posting both bid and ask orders. Profit from the spread.
Takers:
Execute market orders that consume existing liquidity. Pay the spread.
Institutional Traders:
Large orders that must be carefully executed to avoid moving the market.
Retail Traders:
Smaller orders that typically don't impact overall market structure.
How Price Actually Moves
Scenario 1: Aggressive Buying
Large market buy orders consume all asks at current level → price jumps to next ask level → creates upward momentum
Scenario 2: Liquidity Absorption
Big bid order sits at support level → absorbs all selling pressure → price can't move lower → eventually bounces
Scenario 3: Liquidity Vacuum
Large orders pulled from book → thin liquidity → small orders cause big price swings → volatility spikes
Order Types and Their Impact
Market Orders:
Execute immediately at best available price. Remove liquidity. Cause immediate price movement.
Limit Orders:
Wait at specific price. Add liquidity. Create support/resistance levels.
Stop Orders:
Become market orders when triggered. Can cascade and accelerate moves.
Iceberg Orders:
Large orders with only small portion visible. Hide true liquidity depth.
Reading the Order Book
Thick Walls:
Large orders at specific levels. Often act as support/resistance. Watch for pulls or fills.
Thin Book:
Little liquidity. Small orders cause big moves. High volatility environment.
Spoofing Patterns:
Large orders that disappear before execution. Illegal but still happens. Creates false liquidity signals.
Absorption:
Large orders getting filled without price moving. Shows strong hands accumulating or distributing.
Liquidity Concepts
Visible Liquidity:
Orders you can see in the book. Only part of the story.
Hidden Liquidity:
Iceberg orders, dark pools, hidden orders. The real depth.
Liquidity Zones:
Price levels where large amounts of liquidity typically rest. Often round numbers or previous high volume areas.
Time and Sales (Tape Reading)
Shows actual executed trades in real-time:
• Size of trades
• Aggressor side (buy or sell)
• Speed of execution
• Clustering of large trades
What to Watch:
- Sudden large trades (institutional activity)
- Consistent buying/selling pressure
- Trade size relative to average
- Speed of tape (urgency indicator)
Market Impact and Slippage
For Small Traders:
Minimal impact. Orders fill at expected prices in liquid markets.
For Large Traders:
Significant impact. Must use algorithms to minimize:
• TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price)
• VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price)
• Iceberg orders
• Dark pool execution
Practical Trading Applications
1. Identify True Support/Resistance
Look for large bid/ask walls in order book. These are levels where price is likely to react.
2. Gauge Momentum Strength
Fast tape with large trades = strong momentum. Slow tape with small trades = weak momentum.
3. Spot Institutional Activity
Unusual large trades or consistent absorption at levels = smart money positioning.
4. Avoid Low Liquidity Traps
Thin order books = high slippage risk. Trade during high liquidity periods.
Common Mistakes
⚠️ Trusting all visible orders
Many large orders are spoofs or will be pulled. Watch for actual fills, not just posted orders.
⚠️ Ignoring market context
Order book dynamics change based on news, time of day, and overall market conditions.
⚠️ Over-analyzing every tick
Microstructure matters most for scalpers and day traders. Swing traders should focus on bigger picture.
⚠️ Using market orders in thin books
You'll get terrible fills. Use limit orders in low liquidity environments.
Tools for Analysis
• Level 2 order book data
• Time and sales window
• Footprint charts
• Order flow indicators
• Depth of market (DOM) displays
Key Takeaways
• Price moves due to order flow imbalances, not indicators
• Order book shows supply and demand in real-time
• Market makers provide liquidity, takers consume it
• Large orders must be carefully executed to avoid market impact
• Understanding microstructure helps with entries, exits, and risk management
• Most relevant for short-term traders, less so for long-term investors
Your Turn
Do you watch the order book when trading? Have you noticed patterns in how large orders behave?
Share your observations below 👇
XMR/USDT Long — Trade Idea— Price compressing toward resistance, prolonged sideways movement, and unplayed long signals on the weekly timeframe for Bitcoin and top coins
— Entry: $347 — market buy order
— Stop: $333
— Target: $444
Risk per trade: 0.2% of total deposit
Position size: 5% of total deposit
RR: 1:8
24-Day SwingA significant force is expected to emerge at 38% or even 50%. If you don't believe it will reach 50%, I recommend taking a partial profit or even closing the position. The correction will come. So be careful with your trade. Initially, it's expected to reach 50%. It will depend on the chart scenario, as corrections will occur.
XMR Monero Making a .618 Golden Pocket Bounce? XMR Monero Making a .618 Golden Pocket Bounce?
The .618 Gold Pocket on this Fibonacci pulling in Lots of time, is strong.
Does not look like XMR wants to visit the .786 Fib.
Watch the 1h FVG for a break above (close) and a break above the 0.5 Fibonacci.
A confirmation could be closing above another daily candle above, or a bounce back to 0.5 Fib.
Could be Go-Time for an XMR Monero Swing back towards recent highs.
Didn't look into a trade against BTC, but would do so if comments request.
Take Care!
Craig
XMR - Privacy vs Regulation: Consolidation Breakout at $325?
What's up traders! 👋
Monero is at a CRITICAL decision point right now. We've got a unique setup where privacy coin fundamentals are clashing with regulatory pressure, while price consolidates between $290-$325. Let me break down what's happening on the 45-minute chart and why the next move could be MASSIVE.
The Setup
XMR is trading at $302 after a brutal rejection from the $350-$360 supply zone. Price dumped to $290 in early February, bounced hard back to $360, got rejected, and has now given back almost the entire recovery. We're consolidating in the gray zone at $308-$325, testing critical support.
The big question: Does this break above $325 for a run to $360+, or do we retest $290 support before the next leg up?
Why This Setup Matters
Consolidation pattern after failed recovery (indecision zone)
Testing critical support at $308-$310 (recurring pivot)
$290 is the LINE IN THE SAND (February spike low)
$350-$360 supply zone absorbed every rally attempt
UNIQUE NARRATIVE: Privacy vs Regulation battle
48% of new darknet markets XMR-ONLY (real-world usage)
73 major exchanges delisted XMR (regulatory pressure)
Decentralized bridge launching (bullish for liquidity)
Network activity GROWING despite delistings
EU 2027 rules threaten further restrictions
Insulated from broader market volatility
The News Context - February 23, 2026
This is where Monero gets INTERESTING - it's a clash between grassroots adoption and regulatory crackdown:
Bullish catalysts:
DECENTRALIZED BRIDGE launching (Feb 21) - bypasses CEX gatekeepers
Wrapped token $XMR1 on Ethereum for Hyperliquid trading
Aims for full decentralization with rotating validators
Network activity HIGHER than pre-2022 despite delistings (TRM Labs)
48% of new darknet markets in 2025 accept ONLY Monero
Real-world usage driving value (not speculation)
Privacy features unmatched (stealth addresses, ring signatures)
Insulated from broader market selloffs (disconnected from CEX)
Trading volumes up 28.53% while price stable
2026 upgrades: FCMP++, Seraphis (enhanced privacy, scalability)
Fluorine Fermi update enhances peer selection
CZ Binance: Privacy is missing link to crypto adoption
On-chain volumes remain robust in non-custodial environments
Resilient demand despite regulatory pressure
1-year MA at $321 acting as support
Bearish/Risk factors:
73 MAJOR EXCHANGES delisted XMR (Binance, Coinbase, Kraken)
EU KYC/AML rules 2027 threaten further restrictions
Regulatory pressure pushing to niche markets
Limited mainstream adoption (merchant integration)
Fragmented liquidity (small offshore exchanges, DEX only)
Higher volatility due to thin liquidity
Compliance barriers cementing niche status
Association with darknet markets (regulatory target)
XMR down 2.54% in 24h (underperforming market)
High beta to Bitcoin decline (3x)
CMC Fear & Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)
Altcoin Season Index down 8.82% (sector rotation away)
Testing key $300 support (psychological level)
Failed recovery from $360 (sellers won at supply zone)
$290 approaching again (not great sign for bulls)
Key Levels I'm Watching
Resistance:
$325 - CRITICAL RESISTANCE / Upper consolidation bound
$335-$340 - Lower gray zone / First wall to reclaim
$350-$360 - MAJOR SUPPLY ZONE / Sellers living here
$370 - Bigger horizontal / Capped initial drop
$471 - Breakout target (technical analysis projection)
Support:
$302 - Current price
$308-$310 - Immediate support / Recurring pivot (dotted line)
$300 - PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL / Key support
$290-$308 - MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE / February spike low / Line in the sand
$280 - 30-day low / Extended support if breakdown
Pattern Analysis - Consolidation After Failed Recovery
Price is consolidating in a narrow range after a failed attempt to reclaim higher levels:
February dump: $360 → $290 (brutal flush)
Recovery rally: $290 → $360 (full retracement)
Rejection: $350-$360 supply zone absorbed all buying
Pullback: $360 → $302 (gave back entire recovery)
Current: Consolidating at $308-$325 gray zone
Descending trendline: Capping rallies from top left
Support: $290-$308 green zone (critical)
The key is whether we break above $325 consolidation resistance or retest $290 support first.
Two Scenarios
SCENARIO 1: Breakout Above $325 (CAUTIOUS - 45%)
Price breaks above $325 consolidation resistance, reclaims $335-$340, targets $350-$360 supply zone.
Break above $325 with volume
Reclaim $335-$340 lower gray zone
Target 1: $350-$360 (supply zone retest)
Target 2: $370 (bigger horizontal)
Target 3: $471 (extended breakout target)
Triggers:
Decentralized bridge gains traction (liquidity unlocked)
2026 upgrades (FCMP++, Seraphis) generate hype
Privacy narrative strengthens (CZ comments resonate)
Darknet adoption accelerates (48% XMR-only grows)
Bitcoin stabilizes above $64K (altcoin relief)
Market sentiment improves (Fear & Greed exits extreme)
Regulatory clarity emerges (less uncertainty)
This aligns with:
Network activity growing despite delistings
Real-world usage driving value (not speculation)
Decentralized bridge solving liquidity problem
Privacy features unmatched in crypto
Insulated from broader market volatility
1-year MA at $321 providing support
Trading volumes up 28.53% (stable demand)
SCENARIO 2: Retest $290 Support (PRIMARY - 55%)
Price breaks below $308-$310 pivot, retests $290 major support, then decides next move.
Break below $308-$310 consolidation support
Retest $290-$308 major support zone
Strong defense at $290 = long opportunity
Lose $290 = dump to $280 (30-day low)
If $290 holds, resume uptrend to $325 → $360
Triggers:
EU 2027 regulations accelerate (more delistings)
Regulatory crackdown intensifies (niche status cements)
Bitcoin breaks below $64K (altcoin selloff)
Extreme Fear continues (CMC index 11)
Altcoin rotation away continues (sector weakness)
Liquidity concerns persist (fragmented markets)
Failed recovery narrative dominates (sellers at $360 won)
This would align with:
Failed recovery from $360 (sellers absorbed buying)
Approaching $290 again (not great sign)
High beta to Bitcoin decline (3x)
Regulatory pressure mounting (EU 2027)
Fragmented liquidity (thin markets)
Extreme Fear sentiment (CMC 11)
The Privacy vs Regulation Battle - Monero's Unique Narrative
Why Monero is Different:
Monero is NOT your typical altcoin. It derives value from REAL-WORLD USAGE, not speculation. This creates a unique dynamic where regulatory pressure (bearish) clashes with grassroots adoption (bullish).
Bullish: Real-World Adoption
48% of new darknet markets in 2025 accept ONLY Monero
Network activity HIGHER than pre-2022 despite delistings
Privacy features unmatched (stealth addresses, ring signatures, confidential transactions)
CZ Binance: "Privacy is the missing link to crypto adoption"
Insulated from broader market volatility (disconnected from CEX)
Trading volumes up 28.53% while price stable (no panic selling)
Real-world usage = stable growth trajectory (not speculative)
Decentralized bridge launching (bypasses CEX gatekeepers)
2026 upgrades (FCMP++, Seraphis) enhance privacy and scalability
Bearish: Regulatory Crackdown
73 major exchanges delisted XMR (Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Dubai DIFC)
EU KYC/AML rules 2027 threaten further restrictions
US CLARITY Act could limit availability on compliant exchanges
Regulatory pressure pushing XMR to niche markets
Limited merchant adoption (compliance concerns)
Fragmented liquidity (small offshore exchanges, DEX only)
Higher volatility due to thin liquidity
Association with darknet markets = regulatory target
The Critical Question:
Will Monero's community-driven infrastructure prove more durable than the compliance barriers arrayed against it? The answer determines whether XMR is a long-term winner or a niche asset forever.
Decentralized Bridge - Game Changer?
What's Happening (Feb 21, 2026):
New project developing decentralized bridge for Monero
Starts with custodial wrapped token ($XMR1) on Ethereum
Trading on Hyperliquid (bypasses CEX gatekeepers)
Evolves to multisignature validator system
Aims for full decentralization with rotating validators
Directly tackles liquidity and accessibility problems
Why This Matters:
Unlocks new trading avenues and demand
Bypasses centralized gatekeepers (exchanges)
Solves frozen funds problem (users lost money on CEX)
Could attract institutional interest (wrapped token)
BUT: Initial multisig setup may attract regulatory scrutiny
Market Impact:
If successful, this could be MASSIVELY bullish for XMR. It solves the critical liquidity problem while maintaining privacy. However, regulators may target the bridge itself.
Network Activity - Resilience Despite Delistings
TRM Labs Report (Feb 17, 2026):
On-chain transaction volumes 2024-25 HIGHER than pre-2022
This is DESPITE delistings from Binance, Kraken, major exchanges
48% of new darknet markets in 2025 accept ONLY Monero
Significant shift from Bitcoin to XMR in darknet
Fluorine Fermi update enhances peer selection
Network activity stable or growing in non-custodial environments
What This Means:
This is BULLISH for Monero's fundamental demand. It demonstrates resilient organic usage that persists despite reduced accessibility. The asset has REAL utility, not just speculation.
Market Dynamics - Insulated from Volatility
Why XMR is Different:
Disconnected from major exchanges (delisted everywhere)
Trades on small offshore exchanges and DEX only
Insulated from coordinated altcoin selloffs
When Bitcoin dropped 5% on Trump tariff news, XMR held steady
Trading volumes up 28.53% while price unchanged (stable demand)
No panic selling compared to rest of market
Long-Term Implications:
As XMR continues to hold value better in market selloffs, investors looking for safety + growth could pivot towards it. This could drive XMR to new highs when the market rebounds.
Technical Setup - Range-Bound with Breakout Potential
Current Range:
Upper bound: $357 (resistance from chart analysis)
Lower bound: $290 (support from February spike low)
Current: $302 (near lower end of range)
Range getting narrower (compression = breakout imminent)
Key Technical Levels:
1-year MA: $321 (critical support)
Consolidation: $308-$325 (current zone)
Supply zone: $350-$360 (sellers living here)
Breakout target: $471 (measured move)
In bull market with FOMO: $1,000+ possible
My Game Plan
Bearish scenario (PRIMARY - 55%): I'm leaning SLIGHTLY BEARISH in the short term. The failed recovery from $360 is concerning - price gave back the ENTIRE rally, which means sellers won at the supply zone. We're approaching $290 again, which is not a great sign. The regulatory pressure is REAL (73 exchanges delisted, EU 2027 rules coming). Market sentiment is Extreme Fear (CMC 11), and altcoins are rotating away. High beta to Bitcoin (3x) means if BTC breaks $64K, XMR could dump to $280. I'm watching for a retest of $290 support.
Bullish scenario (45%): The counterargument is STRONG. Monero has REAL-WORLD USAGE (48% of darknet markets XMR-only), which is rare in crypto. Network activity is GROWING despite delistings. The decentralized bridge (Feb 21) could unlock massive liquidity. XMR is insulated from broader market volatility (disconnected from CEX). Trading volumes up 28.53% with stable price = no panic. CZ Binance said privacy is the missing link to adoption. If $290 holds and we break $325, I'm targeting $360 → $471.
Key levels: $290 is the LINE IN THE SAND. Hold = bullish structure intact. Break = dump to $280. On the upside, $325 is critical. Break above = reclaim $360 supply zone.
The Bottom Line
I'm NEUTRAL-TO-SLIGHTLY-BEARISH on XMR in the short term, but BULLISH long term. The setup is unique:
Bearish factors (short term):
Failed recovery from $360 (sellers won)
Approaching $290 again (concerning)
Regulatory pressure mounting (EU 2027)
73 exchanges delisted (liquidity fragmented)
Extreme Fear sentiment (CMC 11)
High beta to Bitcoin (3x decline)
Altcoin rotation away
Bullish factors (long term):
Real-world usage (48% darknet XMR-only)
Network activity growing despite delistings
Decentralized bridge launching (liquidity unlock)
Privacy features unmatched
Insulated from market volatility
2026 upgrades (FCMP++, Seraphis)
CZ: Privacy is missing link to adoption
Value from usage, not speculation
The $290-$308 support is KEY. Hold = long to $325 → $360. Break = dump to $280.
But the REAL story is the Privacy vs Regulation battle. If Monero's community-driven infrastructure (decentralized bridge, network upgrades) proves more durable than regulatory barriers, XMR could be a MASSIVE long-term winner. In a bull market with FOMO, $1,000+ is possible.
This is a HIGH-RISK, HIGH-REWARD play. Not for the faint of heart.
What do you think? Privacy revolution or regulatory dead-end? Drop your take! 👇
If this helped, smash that 🚀 Boost button!
Not financial advice. DYOR.
Volume Profile: Reading the Market's True Story
Price Tells You Where. Volume Tells You Why.
Most traders stare at candlesticks and wonder: "Will this level hold?"
Volume Profile traders already know — because they can see exactly where the most trading happened, where institutions accumulated, and where price is likely to return.
This isn't guesswork. It's reading the market's memory.
What Is Volume Profile?
Volume Profile displays trading volume at specific price levels over a given time period.
Traditional Volume:
Shows how much was traded when (time-based)
Volume Profile:
Shows how much was traded where (price-based)
Why This Matters:
Price gravitates toward areas of high volume (acceptance) and moves quickly through areas of low volume (rejection).
Key Volume Profile Components
1. Point of Control (POC)
What It Is:
The price level with the highest traded volume in the profile period.
Why It Matters:
Represents fair value
Acts as magnetic level
Strong support/resistance
Where most participants agreed on price
Trading Application:
Price tends to return to POC
POC often acts as pivot point
Break of POC signals trend change
POC from higher timeframes = stronger level
2. Value Area (VA)
What It Is:
The price range where 70% of the volume traded.
Components:
VAH — Value Area High (upper boundary)
VAL — Value Area Low (lower boundary)
Why It Matters:
Defines "fair value" range
Price outside VA = extended/extreme
Price inside VA = balanced/accepted
Trading Application:
Price above VAH → Look for shorts back to VA
Price below VAL → Look for longs back to VA
Price in VA → Range-bound, wait for breakout
3. High Volume Nodes (HVN)
What They Are:
Price levels with significantly high volume.
Characteristics:
Areas of acceptance
Where institutions accumulated
Strong support/resistance
Price tends to consolidate here
Trading Application:
HVN acts as magnet
Expect consolidation at HVN
Break of HVN = significant move
Use HVN as target zones
4. Low Volume Nodes (LVN)
What They Are:
Price levels with very little volume.
Characteristics:
Areas of rejection
Price moved through quickly
Weak support/resistance
Price tends to gap through
Trading Application:
Price accelerates through LVN
Don't expect support at LVN
LVN = low-resistance liquidity runs
Target next HVN beyond LVN
Volume Profile Types
1. Session Volume Profile
Volume for single trading session
Resets daily
Best for day trading
Shows intraday acceptance/rejection
2. Fixed Range Volume Profile
Volume over specific time period
You define the range
Best for swing trading
Shows longer-term value areas
3. Visible Range Volume Profile
Volume for what's visible on chart
Changes as you zoom/scroll
Dynamic view
Quick reference tool
Reading Volume Profile Patterns
Pattern 1: P-Shape Profile
Volume concentrated at top
Indicates distribution
Bearish implication
Sellers in control
Pattern 2: b-Shape Profile
Volume concentrated at bottom
Indicates accumulation
Bullish implication
Buyers in control
Pattern 3: D-Shape Profile
Volume on one side, tail on other
Shows directional conviction
Trend day pattern
Continuation likely
Pattern 4: Balanced Profile
Bell curve shape
Volume centered
Neutral market
Range-bound trading
Volume Profile Trading Strategies
Strategy 1: POC Bounce
Setup:
Price moves away from POC
Returns to test POC
Shows rejection (wick, volume)
Enter in direction of rejection
Logic:
POC is fair value. Price tends to respect it.
Strategy 2: Value Area Extremes
Setup:
Price extends beyond VAH or VAL
Shows exhaustion signs
Enter mean reversion trade back to POC
Logic:
Price outside value area is extended and likely to revert.
Strategy 3: HVN Breakout
Setup:
Price consolidates at HVN
Breaks out with volume
Targets next HVN or LVN gap
Logic:
Break of high volume node signals shift in control.
Strategy 4: LVN Acceleration
Setup:
Price enters LVN zone
Expect fast move through
Target next HVN
Logic:
Low volume = low resistance = fast price movement.
Combining Volume Profile with Other Tools
Volume Profile + Support/Resistance
POC often aligns with key S/R
Confluence increases probability
Use VP to identify which S/R levels matter most
Volume Profile + Fibonacci
Fib levels near POC = high probability
VAH/VAL often align with Fib levels
Use VP to confirm Fib importance
Volume Profile + Market Profile
Market Profile shows time at price
Volume Profile shows volume at price
Together = complete picture
Volume Profile + Order Flow
VP shows where volume happened
Order flow shows who was buying/selling
Combined = institutional footprints
Volume Profile for Different Timeframes
Day Trading:
Use session volume profile
Focus on intraday POC
Trade VAH/VAL extremes
Quick mean reversion plays
Swing Trading:
Use weekly/monthly profiles
Focus on major HVN/LVN
POC as key pivot
Longer-term value areas
Position Trading:
Use quarterly/yearly profiles
Identify major accumulation zones
Long-term value areas
Macro support/resistance
Common Volume Profile Mistakes
Wrong Timeframe — Using daily VP for scalping. Match VP period to trading timeframe.
Ignoring Context — VP alone isn't enough. Combine with trend, momentum, and structure.
Too Many Profiles — Cluttering chart with multiple VPs. Focus on most relevant period.
Treating POC as Absolute — POC can break. It's a guide, not a law.
Forgetting Volume Quality — High volume at a level doesn't always mean support. Context matters.
Volume Profile Checklist
Before the Trade:
Identify current POC
Mark VAH and VAL
Note major HVN and LVN
Determine if price is in/out of value
Check higher timeframe VP for context
During the Trade:
Monitor price reaction at VP levels
Watch for volume confirmation
Adjust targets based on next HVN
Use POC as trailing stop reference
After the Trade:
Review how price respected VP levels
Note which HVN/LVN were significant
Update VP analysis for next session
Key Takeaways
Volume Profile shows where volume traded at each price level
POC is the highest volume level — acts as fair value
Value Area contains 70% of volume — defines balanced range
HVN = support/resistance, LVN = fast price movement
Combine VP with other tools for highest probability setups
Your Turn
Do you use Volume Profile in your trading?
What's your favorite VP setup — POC bounce, VAH/VAL extremes, or HVN breakout?
Share your Volume Profile experience below 👇
XMR - Consolidation Breakout at $302 or Retest? Darknet??
What's up traders! 👋
Monero is at a CRITICAL decision point with a UNIQUE fundamental story. We've got surging darknet adoption and privacy upgrades battling intense regulatory pressure. Let me break down what's happening on the 45-minute chart and why the next move could be MASSIVE.
The Setup
XMRUSD is trading at $302 after consolidating in a $278-$302 range. Price is testing the upper boundary of the consolidation zone while holding above ascending support. We've got descending resistance capping rallies, creating compression.
The big question: Does this break above $302 for a run to $320-$361, or do we get rejected for a retest of $278 or the critical 1-year MA at $321?
Why This Setup Matters - UNIQUE STORY
Consolidation zone $278-$302 testing upper bound
Ascending support holding (higher lows structure)
Descending resistance creating compression
DARKNET ADOPTION SURGING: 48% of new markets XMR-only
73 exchanges DELISTED XMR in 2025 (supply squeeze)
Privacy upgrades strengthening network (Fluorine Fermi, FCMP++)
Decentralized bridge launching (solves access problem)
BUT: Regulatory pressure INTENSE (Binance, Kraken, Coinbase removed)
Technical correction from $800 ATH to $302 (62% drop)
1-year MA at $321 is CRITICAL support
The News Context - February 21, 2026
This is a UNIQUE situation - fundamentals are STRONG but regulatory pressure is BRUTAL:
Bullish catalysts (STRONG FUNDAMENTALS):
DARKNET ADOPTION EXPLODING: 48% of new darknet markets in 2025 accept ONLY XMR
Shift from Bitcoin to Monero for stronger anonymity
On-chain activity ABOVE pre-2022 levels despite mass delistings
Demonstrates INELASTIC DEMAND for privacy features
XMR = preferred medium of exchange in censorship-resistant markets
"Fluorine Fermi" privacy upgrade (v0.18.4.3) - defends against spy nodes
FCMP++ development (Full Chain Membership Proof) - enhances anonymity
Seraphis & Jamtis codebase (future) - next-gen transaction protocol
Bulletproofs++ (future) - smaller transactions, lower costs
Ledger bug fix (Jan 2026) - improved hardware wallet reliability
Decentralized bridge launching - solves access problem, bypasses exchanges
Exchange delistings = SUPPLY SQUEEZE (bullish long-term)
Forced to DEX/P2P = eliminates synthetic derivatives, real price discovery
Community framing as "apocalypse gold" for financial sovereignty
Geopolitical hedge against surveillance and capital controls
Bearish/Risk factors (REGULATORY PRESSURE):
73 EXCHANGES DELISTED XMR in 2025 (Binance, Kraken, Coinbase, Huobi, OKX, Bitstamp)
Kraken halted XMR in EEA (Oct 2024)
Japan, South Korea, Australia banned privacy coins years ago
Canada, parts of Asia following trend
Trading shifted to smaller offshore exchanges and DEX
Users rely on atomic swaps, P2P networks
Regulatory scrutiny INTENSIFYING
Technical correction: $800 ATH → $302 (62% drop)
Analyst watching $361-$355 area or lower
1-year MA at $321 is LAST LINE OF DEFENSE
Break below $321 = algorithmic selling
Short-term sentiment BEARISH due to correction
Users losing funds on exchanges (frozen accounts)
Ransomware still prefers Bitcoin (higher liquidity)
Key Levels I'm Watching
Resistance:
$302 - CRITICAL RESISTANCE / Consolidation upper bound
$310-$320 - Resistance zone / Must break for bulls
$321 - 1-year MA (CRITICAL if we get there from above)
$355-$361 - Analyst target / Next resistance
$400 - Psychological level
Support:
$302 - Current price / Testing resistance
$278 - Consolidation lower bound / Immediate support
$260 - Secondary support
$240-$260 - MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE / Demand area
$321 - 1-year MA (CRITICAL SUPPORT if we drop there)
$302 - Analyst mentions as potential support
Pattern Analysis - Consolidation with Compression
Price is consolidating in a $278-$302 range after the massive drop from $800 ATH. We've got:
Ascending support: Higher lows forming (bullish structure)
Descending resistance: Lower highs capping rallies
Compression: Price coiling at upper boundary
Volume: Likely contracting (typical in consolidation)
Breakout: Direction TBD, but ascending support = slight bullish bias
The 1-year MA at $321 is CRITICAL. Analyst @0xWhale says: "If something go wrong, the strong support at 321 that is the 1 year moving average."
Two Scenarios
SCENARIO 1: Bullish Breakout (CAUTIOUS - 50%)
Price breaks above $302 consolidation resistance, reclaims $321 1-year MA, targets $355-$361.
Break above $302 with volume
Reclaim $321 1-year MA (critical)
Target 1: $320 (resistance zone)
Target 2: $355-$361 (analyst target)
Target 3: $400 (psychological)
Triggers:
Decentralized bridge launch success (solves access problem)
Darknet adoption continues accelerating
Privacy upgrades attract more users
Supply squeeze from delistings kicks in
"Apocalypse gold" narrative gains traction
Geopolitical instability drives privacy demand
This aligns with:
Strong fundamentals (darknet adoption, privacy upgrades)
Supply squeeze from exchange delistings
Ascending support holding (higher lows)
Community conviction (long-term bullish narrative)
Decentralized bridge solving access problem
SCENARIO 2: Rejection & Retest (50%)
Price gets rejected at $302 resistance, retests $278 or drops to test 1-year MA at $321 or lower.
Rejection at $302 consolidation resistance
Pullback to $278 support
If $278 breaks, test $240-$260 major support
Critical test at $321 1-year MA if we drop there
Break below $321 = algorithmic selling, target $302 or lower
Triggers:
Regulatory pressure escalates (more delistings)
Decentralized bridge launch delayed or fails
Technical weakness (break below $278)
Profit-taking after bounce from lows
Broader crypto market weakness
This would align with:
Intense regulatory pressure (73 delistings)
Technical correction from $800 ATH
Short-term bearish sentiment
Analyst watching $361-$355 or LOWER
1-year MA at $321 as last defense
The UNIQUE Monero Story - Privacy vs Regulation
Darknet Adoption SURGING:
TRM Labs research: 48% of NEW darknet markets in 2025 accept ONLY XMR
Massive shift from Bitcoin to Monero
Operators seek stronger anonymity against blockchain analytics
On-chain activity ABOVE pre-2022 levels despite delistings
Demonstrates INELASTIC DEMAND for privacy features
XMR = preferred medium in censorship-resistant markets
Some ransomware operations also using XMR
BUT most ransom payments still Bitcoin (higher liquidity)
Privacy Upgrades Strengthening Network:
"Fluorine Fermi" (v0.18.4.3) - defends against spy nodes
Improved peer selection algorithm to avoid surveillance clusters
Spy nodes cluster in similar IP subnets to link transactions to IPs
Update makes this surveillance tactic much harder
FCMP++ development - Full Chain Membership Proof
Enhances anonymity and scalability
Alpha stressnet testing complete, audit planned
Seraphis & Jamtis - next-gen transaction protocol (future)
Stronger anonymity, better wallet management
Bulletproofs++ - smaller transactions, lower costs (future)
Ledger bug fix (Jan 2026) - hardware wallet reliability
Exchange Delistings = Supply Squeeze:
73 exchanges delisted XMR in 2025
Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Huobi, OKX, Bitstamp
Kraken halted XMR in EEA (Oct 2024)
Japan, South Korea, Australia banned years ago
Trading shifted to smaller offshore exchanges, DEX, P2P
Community view: BULLISH long-term (supply squeeze)
Eliminates synthetic derivatives, forces real price discovery
Concentrates supply among committed holders
Creates scarcity-driven price floor on DEX
BUT: Access problem for new users
Decentralized Bridge Solution:
New initiative to solve access problem
Stage 1: Custodial wrapped token $XMR1 on Ethereum
Trade on Hyperliquid decentralized orderbook
Stage 2: Multisig decentralization (4/6 multisig)
Validator program ensures security
Audits by Hacken and Zellic before launch
Stage 3: Hundreds of rotating validators (fully decentralized)
Mirrors SeraiDEX model
Bypasses centralized gatekeepers
Opens access to broader markets
"Apocalypse Gold" Narrative:
Community framing XMR as financial sovereignty tool
Hedge against surveillance and geopolitical instability
For countries facing sanctions or capital controls
Move value across borders without traceable trail
Sustained demand regardless of market cycles
Uncensorable digital cash
Regulatory attacks = validation of necessity
My Game Plan
Cautiously bullish scenario (50%): The fundamentals are STRONG. Darknet adoption is surging (48% of new markets XMR-only), privacy upgrades are strengthening the network, and exchange delistings are creating a supply squeeze. The decentralized bridge could solve the access problem. The "apocalypse gold" narrative is compelling - XMR as a hedge against surveillance and capital controls. If we break $302 and reclaim the 1-year MA at $321, I'm targeting $355-$361, then $400.
Bearish scenario (50%): The regulatory pressure is BRUTAL. 73 exchanges delisted XMR in 2025, including all the majors. The technical correction from $800 to $302 (62% drop) is severe. The 1-year MA at $321 is the last line of defense - break below that and we could see algorithmic selling to $302 or lower. Short-term sentiment is bearish. If we get rejected at $302, I'm watching for a retest of $278 or lower to $240-$260 support.
Key risk: This is a HIGH-RISK trade. Regulatory pressure could intensify further. The decentralized bridge launch is critical - if it fails or is delayed, access problems persist. The 1-year MA at $321 is EVERYTHING.
The Bottom Line
I'm CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH on XMR with HIGH RISK awareness. This is a unique situation:
Bullish factors:
Darknet adoption surging (48% new markets XMR-only)
Privacy upgrades strengthening network
Exchange delistings = supply squeeze (long-term bullish)
Decentralized bridge solving access problem
"Apocalypse gold" narrative (geopolitical hedge)
Ascending support holding (higher lows)
On-chain activity above pre-2022 levels
Bearish factors:
73 exchanges delisted XMR (regulatory pressure INTENSE)
Technical correction 62% from ATH
1-year MA at $321 is critical support
Short-term sentiment bearish
Access problem for new users (until bridge launches)
The $302 resistance is KEY. Break above = long to $320-$361. Reject = retest $278 or lower.
The 1-year MA at $321 is the ULTIMATE support. Hold = bullish. Break = danger.
This is NOT a typical crypto trade. This is privacy vs regulation. High risk, high conviction required.
What do you think? Breakout or rejection? Drop your take! 👇
If this helped, smash that 🚀 Boost button!
Not financial advice. DYOR. HIGH RISK.
A big leap in growth in the coming days? I believe so.In the coming months and days, Monero could experience a significant growth spurt after successfully weathering the Bitcoin crash. While Bitcoin did fall considerably, it wasn't like other altcoins. Due to its resilience and low purchase price, it could reach much higher levels in less time. Previously, it would have taken two years; now, in less than a year, we could see it firmly recovering and reaching its all-time high.
XMR – even “strong fundamentals” follow the cycleMonero is often treated as a fundamentals-first asset, but the chart still tells the truth.
Strong vertical expansions were followed by long periods of distribution and deep retracements. Every cycle high attracted sellers, not long-term accumulation.
Historically, even assets with strong use cases don’t escape market cycles. They reset deep — often 70–90% — before meaningful accumulation returns.
This isn’t a failure of the project. It’s the reality of how liquidity-driven markets behave.
XMR Accumulation Time, dont miss the entrySUMMARY - DW no longer accepts BTC, the demand for this has increased significantly as many more users must acquire this to transact on that platform. Technicals lean bull
This post will be broken down by
Section 1 - Metcalfes law X XMR
Section 2 - Technical Overview
1. Quick refresher: Metcalfe’s Law (applied correctly)
Metcalfe’s Law says:
Network value ∝ (number of active users)²
Key word: active.
Not holders.
Not speculators.
Participants who actually need the network to function.
This distinction matters a lot for XMR.
2. Forced migration ≠ organic adoption — but it still counts
If BTC is no longer accepted on a platform and users are forced to use XMR, you get:
Immediate increase in:
Active wallets
Transactions
Liquidity demand
Not just “interest” — usage
From a Metcalfe perspective:
This is high-quality node growth
Each new user must interact with others using XMR
That creates real network connections, not passive edges
This is actually stronger than speculative onboarding.
3. Why XMR benefits more than BTC under Metcalfe’s Law
BTC already has:
Massive user base
Diminishing marginal network effects
Many users who don’t transact
XMR has:
Smaller but high-intent user base
Utility-driven usage (privacy, censorship resistance)
Much higher marginal value per new user
In Metcalfe terms:
Adding 100k forced users to BTC barely moves the needle
Adding 100k forced users to XMR can reshape the network graph
This is convex growth.
4. The “forced-use flywheel”
Here’s where it gets interesting.
When a platform forces XMR usage:
Users acquire XMR
Merchants hold or recycle XMR
Liquidity deepens
Infrastructure improves (wallets, bridges, rails)
Friction drops
XMR becomes default elsewhere (DW)
That’s second-order network expansion, which Metcalfe’s Law underestimates.
BTC already ran this loop years ago.
XMR is still early in it.
5. Price impact vs network value
Metcalfe’s Law explains value, not price timing.
Forced adoption increases velocity
Velocity increases liquidity premiums
Liquidity premiums reduce risk
Reduced risk raises valuation multiples
Price pressure increases because XMR must be held and circulated
Supply is relatively inelastic (tail emission still small vs demand spikes)
This is why XMR often moves in step-function jumps, not smooth curves.
6. The critical risk (and limitation)
Metcalfe’s Law only holds if:
Users stay after the forcing function
They reuse XMR beyond that platform
OTHERWISE DW may also start accepting ZEC
If users:
Enter → transact → exit immediately
Or use custodial wrappers that abstract XMR away
Then the network graph does not densify, and the effect fades.
Persistence matters more than onboarding count.
7. Net assessment
If BTC is banned and XMR is forced:
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
Structural demand increase
Durable network expansion
Nonlinear valuation impact
WORST CASE
Temporary volume spike
Short-term price volatility
Minimal long-term effect
but with a long term floor at 200, the R:R is favorable
But asymmetry favors XMR.
Metcalfe’s Law applies extremely well to XMR in forced-adoption scenarios because:
XMR users are active by necessity
Each new user adds disproportionate network value
Privacy coins scale through usage density, not hype
TECHNICALS
1. Trend & Structure (Weekly)
Primary trend: Still up on the higher timeframe.
Price is well above the 200-week MA (~203) → long-term bull structure intact.
the last 3–4 candles show distribution / pullback behavior after a blow-off top near ~$600–650. This appears to be a retracement rather than a trend reversal as there are still signs of price acceleration.
This looks like a healthy weekly pullback, not a trend break—yet.
2. 200-Week Moving Average (Orange)
Strong historical cycle support
3. Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
Upper band expansion preceded the spike = classic volatility expansion
Price tagged the upper band hard, then snapped back inside
Current candle closing near the BB midline (~403)
This is mean reversion, not breakdown
This is textbook post-impulse behavior.
4. Volume
Huge volume spike on the recent sell-off candle
Volume spike occurred above the 200-week MA
Often this marks local bottoms, not tops, on higher timeframes
**Watch next 2–3 weekly candles**
Falling price + falling volume = bearish continuation
Flat price + declining volume = consolidation
Green candle + solid volume = next leg setup
5. MFI (Money Flow Index – 14)
Currently around 51
Previously overheated near 70+
Now reset to neutral without entering oversold
MFI holding 40–50 zone = accumulation range
6. Key Levels to Watch
Support
~$400 → BB midline + psychological
~$350 → prior structure + consolidation zone
~$300 → must-hold for bull continuation
~$200 → macro support
Resistance
~$450–480 → local supply
~$550–600 → prior high close
TLDR; Im going to ACCUMULATE. Not financial Advice and for research/entertainment purposes only =)
Monero pressing higher as trader momentum builds into week’s enCurrent Price: 502.99 (Analysis was generated on Monday Morning)
Direction: LONG
Confidence level: 63%(Trader snippets lean constructive despite mixed sector commentary, and price action favors continuation with tight risk)
Targets
Target 1: 518
Target 2: 532
Stop Levels
Stop 1: 488
Stop 2: 472
Key Insights:
Here’s what’s driving this trade. Several traders pointed out that privacy-focused assets have been among the stronger performers compared with the broader altcoin space. Monero being up sharply on multi‑month and year‑to‑date views came up more than once, and that kind of resilience usually attracts momentum traders looking for continuation rather than mean reversion.
What also stands out is how traders frame downside risk. While some commentary mentioned sell‑offs in parts of the alt market, Monero was often described as “less damaged” or “holding value better.” When I see that language repeated, it usually means traders are more willing to buy dips than aggressively fade rallies. With price now elevated, I’m not chasing blindly, but I do see a market that’s still being accumulated on pullbacks.
Recent Performance:
You can see this play out in the tape. Monero has pushed higher into late January 2026, reclaiming levels that many altcoins failed to hold. Even with volatility across crypto, XMR has managed to stay bid and grind upward rather than giving back gains quickly. That behavior supports a continuation bias over the next few sessions.
Expert Analysis:
From a technical angle, traders repeatedly referenced Monero’s strong comparative charts versus other large‑cap altcoins. The talk wasn’t about sharp breakdowns; it was about resilience and trend durability. When I combine that with the current price holding above recent pullback zones, the path of least resistance for this week still points higher, even if the moves come in steps rather than a straight line.
News Impact:
On the news side, ongoing discussion around privacy, on‑chain security, and upcoming protocol improvements continues to underpin interest in Monero. Traders also tied renewed attention in privacy coins to broader crypto security incidents, which historically funnels speculative and hedging flows toward XMR. That backdrop doesn’t guarantee upside, but it does reduce the odds of sudden demand evaporation.
Trading Recommendation:
Putting it all together, I’m staying LONG on Monero for this week. I’d look for continuation toward $518 first, with $532 as a stretch target if momentum accelerates. Risk is clearly defined below $488, and I’d be fully out if $472 fails. Confidence sits at 63% because trader views aren’t unanimous, but the balance of evidence still favors upside follow‑through rather than a sharp reversal right now.
MONERO FTW !!!we seeing metals getting higher and higher, while Bitcoin gets dumped, altcoins gets SLAUGHTERED...
.
MONERO is teh only Crypto wich brings the TRUE CYPHERPUNK IDEAL !!!
.
thats why i believe that, with more and more Government restrictions on our Freedoms, and control over our money, we might see MONERO getting absolutely SENT !!!
We might be withnessing monero do, what Bitcoin did in 2016.
Monero got banned, restricted, and yet, refuses to die.
Monero is the most widely Crypto used as Medium of exchange, like XMRBazaar, where u can buy almost every legal things.
That is what CRYPTO was made for: DIGITAL MONEY!!!!
Game Over is coming for XMRThe Legend of the Gut-Wrenching Sonic: The Final Level
Monero is the Gut-Wrenching Sonic of the crypto world. For years, he’s been sprinting through the "Dark Zone," invisible to the bosses, collecting golden rings while the regulators chased his shadow. He feels invincible. He thinks he’s too fast to be caught.
But every gamer knows how this ends.
The regulators are no longer just chasing him; they are reprogramming the stage. We are entering the final level of 2026, and the "spikes" are being placed at every exit.
The Wall of Light: Governments are tightening the screws on every fiat gateway. You can hold your rings in the shadows, but the moment you try to step into the light to spend them, the game freezes.
The End of the Sprint: New AI-tracking tools and global bans (like DAC8 and MiCA) are the ultimate tripwires.
The "Rekt" Moment: The Gut-Wrenching Sonic is about to hit the final spike. When he does, all those "anonymous" rings will scatter into a void where no bank or merchant will touch them.
He’s uncatchable right now, sure. But speed is useless when you’re running toward a dead end. Soon, the "invisible" coin will become the "worthless" coin. The music is speeding up, the timer is hitting zero, and Sonic is about to get absolutely rekt.
XMRUSD Bear Cycle starting. $215 possible Target.Last time we looked at Monero (XMRUSD) was exactly 3 months ago (October 14 2025, see chart below) giving a buy signal at the bottom of its long-term Channel Up, which quickly hit our Target:
This time we are turning bearish long-term as the price is not only approaching the top of its 2-year Channel Up (green) but also the Top Fib of its 8-year Channel Up. At the same time the 1M RSI is vastly overbought at 85.00, typical of the Cycle Top of the previous two Cycles.
With the last one bottoming on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, just above the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), we estimate that the emerging Bear Cycle will hit at least $215 before bottoming.
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Monero Breaks All-Time Highs As Bullish Structure Points HigherMonero (XMRUSD) is now aggressively breaking into new all-time highs, in line with expectations. On the monthly chart, price action continues to suggest significant room for further upside. Monero may be unfolding a five-wave bullish impulse, or alternatively, breaking out from a larger bullish triangle formation. In both scenarios, the technical picture supports much higher levels.
On the weekly timeframe, we are still tracking a projected extended wave (5) of wave 3. Fibonacci cluster targets continue to point toward the 1000 area before a higher-degree wave 4 correction is expected to unfold. At the moment, price appears to be rising within subwave 3 of an ongoing five-wave bullish impulse for wave (5). This suggests that additional gains are likely in the near term.
That said, traders should remain aware of a potential subwave 4 pullback, which would be a normal part of the structure, before a renewed bullish continuation in subwave 5 of wave (5) of 3.
XMRUSD: Multi-Year Monthly Breakout Signals New Macro CycleMonero (XMR) is breaking out on the monthly timeframe after a 105-month (~3,200 days) compression phase, forming a long-term ascending triangle.
Price has respected a rising support trendline since the 2016–2017 cycle while repeatedly testing a flat macro resistance zone, which has now been decisively broken with strong bullish momentum. The current monthly candle shows expansion in range and volume, signaling a potential regime shift rather than a short-term move.
Key observations:
- Multi-year higher lows against horizontal resistance
- Clean monthly close above resistance
- Long consolidation typically precedes impulsive moves
- Structure suggests price discovery phase may be beginning
If the breakout holds, XMR could be entering a new long-term bullish cycle, with upside targets extending significantly higher over the coming years.
Cheers
Hexa






















