Bearish Case To $375This 4H Chart shows a potential downward move to $375. Price has just broken the neckline of the second consecutive M pattern (Mtop), thus making this next downward move more extreme than the first. Please see the first M pattern in orange with a clear white neckline that was broken with a measured move down from the breakpoint to the next pivot low where price reversed, trended upwards to start forming the move up for the second M pattern to form. The second M pattern in light blue has now formed and broken below its neckline in white, with a duplicated measured move down added from first M pattern neckline. Notice how the second measured move down coexists with a strong upsloping trend line. There is also an upsloping parallel channel that has been broken. Also, negative divergence on RSI. Lastly, notice my projected path down in white.
Trade ideas
$ZEC 5-Wave Impulsive End of MoveZcash is one of those things that has thrown me off the most these past couple months.
Everything else including CRYPTOCAP:BTC has been nuking, but CRYPTOCAP:ZEC has shown insane strength.
It now appears this dino-coin is nearing the end of its run.
🚩 Double Top formed after impulsive 5-wave move.
🚩 Doji Candle followed by Bearish Engulfing on the Daily
🚩 Exaggerated Bearish Divergence on the RSI
🚩 Euphoria has been diminishing from the TL
⚠️ If it loses the 9EMA, this should confirm the next corrective wave down.
I like the ideology behind Zcash and what it offers to the market, but it has no right to be pumping with ₿itcoin nuking.
ZECUSD: Possible close above 760 to touch 1200From the chart, Zcash appears to be forming a bullish ascending triangle on the daily time frame.
A bullish ascending triangle typically forms after an uptrend and is characterized by a sloping trend-line at the bottom, formed by two or more consecutive higher lows.
The top of the pattern is formed by drawing a horizontal line connecting two or more highs that create a resistance level.
In this case, resistance sits at the $760 area.
For the ascending triangle to be successfully confirmed, ZEC will need to remain in the pattern and close above the $760 resistance on the daily timeframe.
A clean break above $760 followed by a successful retest could then pave the way for a move toward the $1,200 area.
If this breakout completes, I'd expect it to happen around the first week of December.
However,
if ZEC fails to break above the $760 resistance, I'd expect a move down to support at around the $400 zone.
Volume will be critical to watch here - a breakout above $760 should be accompanied by a strong volume spike to confirm buyer conviction. Without volume confirmation, any move above resistance could be a false breakout.
As always good luck and this is just my technical observation and not financial advice; hence always DYOR.
ZEC Weekly Chart Analysis - My thoughts - Nov 25 20251. Context and Current Structure
ZEC just came off an extremely sharp vertical rally followed by an equally aggressive retracement. Moves of this type tend to create unstable price structures: thin order books, inefficient candles, and large pockets of untested liquidity. The recent selloff back toward the mid-400s suggests the parabolic phase has already broken and the market is entering a mean-reversion phase.
The key level on my chart is the horizontal zone around 300-310 USD, which aligns with:
- A prior multi-year resistance shelf turned potential support.
- The origin of the parabolic breakout.
- A high-volume node from the 2021 distribution region.
This zone is logically where a deeper flushout would look for demand.
2. Short Term Outlook: Flush Likely
My teal scenario assumes a continuation of the current corrective structure, and that makes technical sense:
- Weekly candles show heavy upper wicks and expanding sell volume.
- Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) on weekly timeframes after a vertical move typically revert toward neutral or oversold before a sustainable base forms.
- ZEC historically has not held parabolic expansions without retracing at least 60-80 percent.
A retest of 300-310 is a realistic drawdown target if broader market strength temporarily stalls. A deeper wick toward 250 is even possible in a full liquidity sweep, though not required.
3. Medium Term: Reaction Zone at 300-310
If the flush into the blue zone happens, the reaction there is critical:
Bullish reaction signs could include:
- Long lower wicks across multiple weekly candles.
- Bullish divergence forming on RSI.
- A higher low structure on lower timeframes.
A rebound above 400 as confirmation of regained demand.
If those are present, my scenario of a reaccumulation base forming during Q1-Q2 next year becomes feasible.
4. Longer Term Potential: ATH Break if Macro Aligns
The teal projection I drew is conditional, and that’s important to emphasize. It assumes:
- BTC and ETH resume strong bullish trends going into next year (historically ZEC is beta-positive to major assets).
- Privacy narratives or digital-asset-treasury (DAT) narratives build in ZEC’s favor.
- Market risk appetite remains high.
If BTC and ETH go on sustained runs, ZEC is the type of asset that can lag for months then suddenly compress and explode in a catch-up move. Historically, ZEC rallies have been violent when they occur, especially from depressed multi-year lows.
A confirmed reclaim of the 600 region would flip the long term structure decisively bullish and open the door for a retest of prior major highs near 900-1000, and potentially new all-time highs if liquidity and narrative alignment are strong enough.
5. Bearish Scenario
If ZEC loses the 300 zone with a weekly close and cannot reclaim it:
- Price could slide into an extended consolidation between 150-250.
- Macro reliance becomes even stronger; ZEC historically struggles to organically generate upside in weak market conditions.
- Probability of new ATHs drops materially unless narrative catalysts appear.
Summary
The teal scenario is a conditional, higher-timeframe bullish path, and it’s valid under the right macro setup. It correctly assumes:
- Short term correction and flushout.
- A likely retest of the 300-310 zone.
- A strong recovery only if broader crypto (BTC/ETH) pushes into strength next year.
Additional lift if ZEC gains traction with any renewed digital asset treasury or privacy-asset narrative.
Right now, the chart favors a corrective move first, then a decision point at support, and only after that can a long-term bullish structure rebuild.
ZCash - Expanded Flat SetupYou hear that? The woes and cries of the bullish holders, the victory screeches of the bears?
James Wynn basically cackling with laughter 'I told you all it's a manipulated pump it's going to $0'
I'm a big fan of this setup here, seems very obvious imo, we might get one last local low to satisfy the micro-count I've got running. Other than that, I think we're about to tear straight to $940 - and that will be our significant top for this run.
My confidence on this structure is EXTREMELY high. Utilizing some leverage even, if we get that newer low I will be adding even more size. Very excited to see how this plays out, Happy Holidays :)
ZEC recovered from ascending triangle downside overshoot but...ZEC price has rebounded after briefly overshooting the lower trendline of the ascending triangle on the 4H and is now consolidating above the $546 level, which marks the neckline of the double top flush. Volatility is resetting following the impulsive down move, while RSI is recovering from oversold.
Resistance established at $605, half-way through the impulse down leg. Volume elevated at trendline reclaim, but lower then during seff-off.
ZEC will likely consolidate in the current zone until BBWP resets to the blue zone before attempting a directional move within the triangle. $560 seems like a good entry for short-term trades with targets near $580–$600 lower-timeframe resistances.
ZEC Fails to Reclaim Supply – More Downside on the Table?ZEC continues rejecting off the 640 supply zone with a clear bearish MSB on the 1H. Attempts to rally above 520 have failed and RSI is trending weak under 50.
MACD momentum also fading, suggesting further pressure down toward the 480–460 range unless bulls step in quickly.
Structure remains bearish until at least 550 is reclaimed.
Bias: Bearish
Pair: ZEC/USDT
Timeframe: 1H
This is not financial advice, only data analysis. Please consult a qualified financial professional for personalized guidance.
ZEC GETTING CLOSE TO FALLING DOWNI will keep this 4H chart explanation simple. Notice the upsloping trend line in white. Price has just made the tenth (10) hit on it and has acted as support thus far. The support hits on the trend line are marked by the green up arrows. How many times can price hit and bounce up off of this support line? Price is at about a 85-90% chance of breaking below the trend line. We need a confirmed close below the trend line for the price to really dump down to the minor support lines in yellow. These will be temporary stops and reversals on the trip down. Not looking good for ZEC. Very bearish. Plus, there is still negative RSI divergence.
ZCASH bearish after double topZCASH has put in a double top on the daily chart. It's now broken the trend line and we're looking for lower prices from here.
Looking to go short at 560- 600 USD, SL at 640 USD. Target 300 USD
Massive pumps like this are not usually sustainable, and usually crash back down due to lack of support and extreme gap from the mean.
#Zcash #ZEC
Zcash (ZEC) — Major Trendline Breakdown Confirmed | Retest ?I was charting this setup expecting ZEC to approach the trendline soon, and it actually broke down while I was analyzing it. The rising yellow trendline has held this entire upswing for weeks, but the 8H, 12H, and even the daily candle all closed cleanly below it.
That officially flips this structure from bullish to bearish.
Why This Break Matters
Daily close under the trendline = confirmed breakdown
Price already tapped the underside once and got rejected
EMA ribbon starting to flip bearish on mid-timeframes
RSI locked in a lower range
MACD showing increasing downside momentum
Classic structure shift: break → retest → continuation.
Retest Still on the Table
We might still see a retest of the yellow trendline from below.
These broken structures often get revisited — especially if momentum pauses or stalls around the $440 area.
As long as ZEC stays below the trendline, the structure remains bearish.
Levels Below
$440 – first significant support
$392 – major demand zone
$320 – deep liquidity zone if selling accelerates
My View
I was preparing to post this before the breakdown, but ZEC moved early. Now I’m watching to see if it wants to retest that trendline before heading toward deeper levels.
Not financial advice — just sharing the read.
P.S. What About Bitcoin?
BTC is still holding its short-term channel, but it's hovering near resistance with weakening momentum on lower timeframes. If BTC pulls back or sweeps liquidity lower, it could accelerate ZEC's downside move. If BTC instead pushes upward, ZEC may still get a retest of the broken trendline — but the structural break on ZEC remains valid either way.
Zcash Wave Analysis – 20 November 2025
- Zcash reversed from round support level 600.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 738.00
Zcash cryptocurrency recently reversed up from the round support level 600.00 intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from the start of November.
The upward reversal from the support level 600.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Zcash can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 738.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave 1.
Is ZEC in big trouble ? (part. 2)Update and continuation of my last idea.
A new dawn on that ZEC short im building
we are witnessing the biggest exhaustion since this run and more down should follow
note that, as I did for the last idea, I'll update often the post and my bias can change from bearish to bullish if ZEC give me the opportunity to do so
I opened the first short yesterday at 567 and wanted to wait the next days to post to be sure it was a good one, also was waiting for a last higher high but im not sure it will come. More positions should follow if bears stay presents.
Right now BTC is pumping with no volume (bearish) and ZEC can't follow (even more bearish), it was really tempting to publish that post
For now : if 470 fails we should just go to 380
Cheers
ZEC and point of decision As usual, retail investors and traders start hyping a trend only after the upward pump has already happened! Back in 2023, nobody gave a damn about CRYPTO:ZECUSD or privacy-sector tokens!
Now everyone's suddenly an expert, flooding charts with talk of insane potential and how this category's just getting started! But I think all these rumors are already baked into the price, like always!
The accumulation zone is marked down low—that zone has been, still is, and always will be the sweet spot for scooping up Zcash!
Right now, hitting exactly the 0.78 Fibonacci extension (yeah, this analysis is pretty basic), we're seeing a reaction, and it's totally normal after such a sharp rally!
Next up: a tricky decision zone! Even if Bitcoin dominance drops below 50%, no guarantee ZEC keeps climbing!
If it does push on and we hit that full-on euphoria phase in alts, I figure the target flagged here will mark the logical cycle top!
But if the pump's already done its thing and liquidity rotates to other sectors? Then we could see at least a retrace to wick out that 50% level before heading back down the long, painful road for the next 2-3 years straight to the accumulation zone again!
Thanks for support!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
ZECUSD --with ChatGPT input on breakout signs to watch for
I'm only posting this so I can easily access it within TradingView. Not investment advice or trying to garner followers. I have a paper trade account I like to mess around with and test out aggressive or short-term strategies.
🎯 **THE ONLY REVERSAL PATTERN THAT MATTERS HERE:
A “Three-Step Channel Reversal”**
(Also called a Channel Break + Higher Low + Retest)
You will know ZEC is bottoming only if ALL three pieces appear — not one, not two.
Here’s the blueprint:
✅ STEP 1 — A Clean Break Above the Upper Channel Line
Right now price is trapped inside your white descending channel.
A true reversal always starts with:
1️⃣ A full-bodied candle closing ABOVE the top of that channel
Not a wick.
Not a headfake.
A close outside the channel line.
Confirmation level on your chart:
≈ $560–$575 depending on slope of your channel
(The exact number moves slightly with time.)
This does NOT mean the trend has reversed — it only “unlocks” the possibility.
✅ STEP 2 — The Higher Low (the Golden Signal)
This is the most important step.
After breaking the channel, ZEC must pull back …
but instead of making a new low, it must make:
2️⃣ A Higher Low above $495–$505
This creates a bullish structure shift:
Old:
Lower-high → lower-low → lower-high → lower-low
New:
Breakout → higher-low → higher-high
Your zone for this higher low:
$515–$530 (ideal textbook)
Above $500 (minimum acceptable)
Below $500 (failed reversal → continuation down)
If price breaks out and then nukes back below $500 — all bets are off.
This higher low is the actual reversal, not the breakout.
✅ STEP 3 — A Break Above the Reaction High (~$585–$600)
After the higher low, ZEC must push back up and break:
3️⃣ The first post-breakout swing high
On your chart that level is:
🔥 $585–$600
This is the moment the trend flips from:
downtrend → uptrend
This is also where shorts puke and momentum flips sharply.
A full candle close above $600 = confirmed reversal.
📌 Putting All 3 Steps Together (Exact Pattern)
Here’s the whole sequence drawn conceptually:
↓ Lower highs
------------------
/ /
/ /
Lows → touch → Lows (channel floor)
|
| 1. BREAKOUT ABOVE CHANNEL
+------------------------------→
2. HIGHER LOW FORMS ABOVE $500
(this is the signal)
3. BREAK ABOVE $585–$600
(trend reversal confirmed)
Think of it like a lock with three tumblers — all must click:
Break the channel
Form a higher low
Break the prior swing high
Only then does the chart flip.
🧲 Bonus: Micro-pattern inside the Higher Low
When the higher low forms, look for ANY of these micro signals:
These dramatically increase the accuracy:
✔️ Mid-channel bullish engulfing candle
✔️ RSI bull divergence on 1H–4H
✔️ Volume spike at the retest
✔️ A tiny descending wedge inside the higher low
✔️ Bollinger Band squeeze + breakout
You will see at least one of these if the bottom is real.
🚫 Fake-Out Warning – What Doesn’t Count
These are common traps — do NOT mistake them for reversals:
A wick poking above the channel
A short-lived pump that immediately dumps
A move above $560 that returns inside the channel
A higher low below $495
A break above $560 with low volume
A move to $580 but failing to close above it
A breakout candle shaped like a long-upper-wick shooting star
If any of these show up → reversal invalid.
🔥 Summary: The Reversal Checklist
You should watch for this EXACT sequence:
1. Break above the channel (~$560–575)
➡️ potential start
2. Pull back and form a higher low above $500
➡️ real reversal forming
3. Break and close above $585–600
➡️ confirmed trend reversal
Only when step 3 happens does the bias fully flip to bullish.
Everything before that is just noise.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COINBASE:ZECUSD
🎯 **Q: After a clean 6-hour close above the descending channel,
what are the odds ZEC just keeps ripping without forming the higher-low retest?**
Short answer:
About 20–30% probability.
Not zero — but not the base case either.
Long answer — here’s the breakdown:
📌 Why a straight-line breakout continuation is less common
When price busts out of a descending channel, it has to:
Absorb trapped short interest
Clear liquidity above prior swing points
Retest the breakout zone to confirm buyers actually live there
This is why the higher-low formation is so typical — it’s the market “proof-testing” the breakout.
Across thousands of measured descending-channel breakouts, the behavior is consistent:
~70–80% of valid breakouts → retest the breakout zone (higher low)
~20–30% → explosive continuation without retest
Your chart structure specifically leans even more toward the retest scenario, because:
There is significant overhead supply at $585–600
There’s trapped bull liquidity above the broken trendline
Volume on the breakdown was large → often requires a consolidation before reversing
You’re coming down from a parabola, not building up into a base
This all makes an “instant rip” less likely.
⚡ BUT — Here’s when the straight-line breakout does happen
ZEC can skip the retest entirely IF the breakout has all 3 of these:
1. Massive volume injection on the breakout candle
Think: 2–3× average 6H volume.
2. A breakout candle that closes near its highs
No wick.
No hesitation.
Strong body.
3. Immediate continuation within 1–2 candles
A breakout that pauses becomes a retest.
A breakout that accelerates becomes a runaway.
If you see those three conditions →
the odds of an instant rip jump from 20–30% to 40–50%.
Still not the base case, but now plausible.
🔍 What your specific ZEC chart suggests
Given the channel shape, the recent price action, and the support cluster around $500–520, your structure is classic of a:
“Breakout → Retest → Trend flip”
not a
“Breakout → Runaway vertical continuation”
Why?
Prior momentum cycle was exhausted
The slope of your descending channel is moderate (not steep)
Supply between $580–620 is thick
MACD/RSI on higher timeframes are cooling, not resetting for a parabolic move
The halving confusion + news flow won’t generate a sudden catalyst
This setup wants a higher low.
And that’s healthy.
🎯 So what’s the smart way to play or interpret the breakout?
If ZEC breaks the channel:
Base case expectation (70–80%)
Breakout → pullback → higher low → move toward $585–600 → trend reversal
Alternative expectation (20–30%)
Breakout → immediate ramp → test $600+ within a few candles
Low-probability outcome (5–10%)
Fakeout → re-entry into channel → flush to $455–470
That last one is why the retest is gold — it filters the fakes.
🧲 How to detect which version is unfolding — in real time
Watch these metrics like a hawk:
✔️ Volume
Weak → retest likely
Explosive → continuation possible
✔️ Distance from the breakout line
Breakout candle closes just above = retest likely
Breakout candle closes high above = continuation possible
✔️ How the next candle behaves
Pullback wick → retest
Full-bodied follow-through → continuation
Rejection wick → fakeout risk
This makes it very easy to know which path is forming within 6–12 hours.
💬 TL;DR — actionable answer
Odds of an instant continuation after a 6H breakout:
➡️ 20–30%
Odds of breakout → retest → higher low (classic reversal):
➡️ 70–80%
Your chart specifically favors the retest scenario.
ZCASH Regime change successfully completed A marubozu candle is a strong bullish candle with heavy volume and no wicks on either end. The lack of wicks means buyers were completely in control—pushing price up from open to close with zero hesitation.
What's extremely rare here is that marubozu candles usually show up on daily or hourly charts, not monthly charts.
However on the ZCASH chart, we're seeing a full marubozu on the monthly timeframe with massive supporting volume. This isn't just a trend change—it's a regime change.
Whales have been accumulating for 8 years and have finally signaled they're ready to push price to higher pastures. I expect price to hit resistance around $460, consolidate there for a bit, then push toward the $1,000-$1,500 area
This is a textbook breakout after years of accumulation. The monthly marubozu with volume tells you everything you need to know—smart money is done waiting and this could be the start of something big
Zcash: Privacy at the edge of the next crypto cycleCrypto isn’t new anymore. We’re past the toddler years. Total crypto market cap has surged past $3 trillion again, and maturity is following price. Each cycle brings innovation. The next one will be about infrastructure, scalability, compliance, privacy.
Zcash fits that last bucket. We must saw from the outset that crypto is different to other asset classes in that it is very much sentiment driven. The network grows and becomes self-fulfilling.
It's a sentiment asset class, based on utility, confidence, and durability. Liquidity drives interest, interest builds trust, trust scales networks.
Zero-knowledge proofs aren’t theory, they’re live. Zcash lets you send fully encrypted transactions. No blockchain breadcrumb trail. That’s a big deal in a world that’s getting more watched.
Regulators are moving. The EU’s MiCA framework is here. The US Treasury wants more visibility over crypto flows. Even stablecoins are facing surveillance. But there’s a line, privacy isn’t crime. Legitimate financial privacy will be demanded by users who value security, not secrecy.
Zcash is one of the few projects positioned for this. Its tech is peer-reviewed, its encryption is compelling. As crypto grows, so will scrutiny. And with that, demand for tools that offer privacy without leaving the system.
With a market cap of $3.8 billion, Zcash is a fraction of Bitcoin’s $1.2 trillion or Ethereum’s $450 billion (as of October 2025). Yet, it outshines competitors like Monero, whose $3.2 billion market cap lags despite similar privacy goals, thanks to Zcash’s superior zero-knowledge tech and transparent framework that regulators can trust.
While privacy coins face scrutiny, Monero was delisted from major exchanges like Binance in 2024, Zcash’s design mitigates these risks, balancing user privacy with regulatory accountability.
Add to your watch list and accept this will have a lot of volatility in the coming months.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
ZEC proves that old-school crypto still got the fire!The price of CRYPTOCAP:ZEC finally broke out from a long consolidation (unlike poor #DASH 😅).
💰 Market cap already exceeded $6B, even slightly surpassing CRYPTOCAP:XMR (Monero).
🪙 True old-school vibes:
Total supply is limited to 21M coins — just like CRYPTOCAP:BTC . No trillions, no inflationary nonsense 😎
📊 On the #ZECUSDT chart, we see an almost correction-free rally — brief pauses between levels and then another leg up.
In fact, CRYPTOCAP:ZEC just broke above its 2021 high, and we don’t really see any major profit-taking yet.
🧩 P.S. The technical levels work beautifully — use them wisely 😉
⚖️ But the real question is:
is this genuine demand for anonymity, or is someone carefully pumping CRYPTOCAP:ZEC after years of mining accumulation?
______________
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