One I am watching. Sense 2011 it looks like there has been a steady decline in the relationship between bonds and gold.
The Long term trend strength is strong but should find a no go zone an the waters should rise steadily over a 10 year span and lean towards bonds.
-Meant to be thought provoking. There is no right answer
US Treasuries are selling and US yields are rising ...
Do you know know what Central Banks have bought a lot of in the past 5 yrs ? Gold
Here’s a chart showing Central Banks gold purchases v. Central Banks UST purchases Jan-13 thru Dec-17:
So not surprising to see this pattern of a Cup and Handle with a clear breakout for...
The 10 Year Yield is now above 2.9% ...
Bonds are selling ...
The Fed is walking a fine line.
The National debt is too high and interest costs will cripple the country at normal rates like 5%.
But China and Russia and even Japan are not buying treasuries and won’t unless and until interest rates are overwhelmingly attractive.
We are in end stages of a crack-up...
It's important to watch how gold outperforms between two obvious assets like Bonds and Stocks.
Using GLD and two most liquid ETFs to represent each asset class TLT and SPY.
IF Gold is in an uptrend, it is going to be outperforming its alternatives. I think that’s exactly what’s happening here.
We still want to be long Gold if we’re above 1300. That hasn’t...
This past week confirms the following that you have to respect the impossible Trinity.
You can have a positive stock market & attract foreigners with rising bond yields, but not with a rising USD.
The new Bear Market in Bonds with rising yields will be very positive for gold.
Looking at the ratio of TLT / GLD as a proxy for gold
and the rising 10 year yields...
While I was analyzing charts, came across this interesting development.
Looking from above, we can see equities are outperforming bond and there is breakout
Bonds are outperforming gold but there is a reversal candle
Equities are outperforming gold with bullish breakout
So for this quarter are we in for equities strength out of all three? Time will tell but...
Left panel: GLD vs TLT
- Not so convincing yet... but look at right panel
- Gold (XAUUSD) spot vs 10y Treasury futures ($ZN)
What do we see?
1. I would not be happy to hold 10 year bonds or any related ETF or other derivative products of US 10y Bonds. Gold already performs a lot better.
2. Of course we have some Heikin-Ashi warning, that Gold/ZN...