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93 1 3
SPY/TLT weekly - weakening

MACD is negative, RSI is below 50. Price is still above trend line. A price breakdown here may signals trouble ahead.

86 0 4
SPY/TLT weekly - short term breaking out

long term trend is still up as 40 week moving averaging is still pointing up. May dancing around 40 week MA for a while before we know a clear direction. Under currently condition, we should overweight stocks over bonds.

timwest timwest SPY*0.5+TLT, D, Education
2798 7 22
SPY*0.5+TLT, D Education
Simple Graph of a Stocks & Bonds Portfolio Hitting a New High

To get a a graph of the portfolio, I added the S&P500 and TLT together. But to keep them roughly equal I used 50% of the price of $SPY and 100% of the price of $TLT. I create the graph by typing the following into the symbol window: SPY*.5+TLT It shows also that the mood of the country might have been pretty bad going into the election since the combined ...

72 0 2
stocks vs bonds

We are at a crucial point in this ratio. A break of two major trends lines and 200 day ma should lead to a much needed correction in the overall market. Will it find support here?

62 0 2
SPY/TLT weekly - attempt to break out -11/1/2016

The ratio is near the double resistance, and looks like is working on a breakout. We will know more in the next couple of weeks. So far RSI broke out, MACD is positive, 40 week MA is turning upward. If this ratio breaks out, we will reduce even more bond holdings (and may start to short bonds), and move into equalities (not necessarily US stocks).

44 0 1
SPY/TLT - soon we will know who has an upper hand - 10/7/2016

The ratio is still within the triangle, with SPY has a slight advantage. Soon it will have to break out, or break down. Worst case is both SPY and TLT are going down, rendering the ratio useless (meaning cannot use TLT as a safe heaven).

62 0 2
SPY/TLT - favors stock but not much - 9/23/2016

This ratio has been consolidating in the triangle. So far SPY has an upper hand but not much (RSI > 50, MACD > 0, price > 10 WMA > 40 WMA). So it is still warranted to continue to hold both bond and stock, and probably tilt toward to stock a little bit more.

51 0 4
SPY/TLT monthly - still bearish - 9/1/2016

The ratio is still bearish looking as 10 MMA is still pointing down and though it registered a higher low in June 2016, no higher high yet. The ratio has not confirm recent broad market breakout. And thus it is not all clear to long equalities and overweight bond is still warranted.

84 1 4
SPY/TLT weekly - a down week - 7/30/2016

SPY was flat but substantially underperformed TLT the past week(ratio down about 2% in the week). So it still warrants to be cautious.

149 0 4
SPY/TLT weekly - rollover likely - 7/23/2016

SPY keeps making all time highs but has not been confirmed by SPY/TLT ratio.This means it continues to be appropriate to hold a mixed allocation to bond and stock, and still over weight bond (the ratio is still in its down trend). In a similar setup in 2008, the ratio rolled over in the 5th week, and we will see how it behaves in the coming week.

72 0 3
SPY/TLT update - bulls need to push the ratio higher or else

If the ratio stalls and starts to retreat, market will be in trouble.

48 0 1
SPY/TLT daily - rolled over - 5/7/2016

The ratio itself, RSI and MACD all said the same thing: it rolled over, meaning TLT starts to outperform SPY.

129 1 5
SPY/TLT daily - rolling over - 3/18/2016

The rising wedge is exhausting and looks like it is rolling over. MACD maybe catching up.

68 1 0
SPY/TLT daily - no breakout yet - 2/16/2016

Usually I do weekly but I want monitor it more closely for potential breakout on the daily chart (no yet). A breakout may mark the short term bottom of the market.

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