I am short term bearish for the US Markets but I expect a last 5-Wave Impuls Move on the upside in the longer term (look at the SP500 Big Picture Analysis).
We are currently seeing an inversion of the US 10 Year Yield and the 2 Year Yield this is a recession signal but remember after this signal we get on average another 22 Months until a bigger correction and...
Couple things to note:
1. When the yield curve hits the bottom trend line, stocks have performed poorly in the following years.
2. When the yield curve is low and near the bottom trend line, the moving average crossover has been a good signal of an impending stock market peak within 5-8 months.
By decrementing US10Y from US02Y we see the actual breakout so to speak.
Volatile. Already touched the previous Global Resistance with a huge spike and most likely next 2 to 3 years are going to be volatile as well coming to an end around Nov 2021 - the point that looks pretty similar to what we already saw in 1991 | 2001 |...
All my thoughts are on the chart.
For reference, definition of treasuries yield curve:
According to Investopedia, the yield curve graphs the relationship between bond yields and bond maturity. More specifically, the yield curve captures the perceived risks of bonds with various maturities to bond investors.
The U.S. Treasury Department issues bonds with...
This chart of the U.S. 10s/2s curve and the SPDR S&P Utilities Sector ETF (XLU) is interesting. A few days ago, I was reading a blurb by a well-known outlet about utilities getting "smoked" during the Q4 equity route. Like above, performance is relative to time frame. Additionally, you have to have a deeper understanding about what XLU is and what it can...
This is a chart comparing historical yield curve inversions using the 10YR verses the 2YR US treasuries on a weekly time scale. Inverted yield curves have historically predicted recessions 6-12 months out.
- Downtrend (flattening) since 2014 (!)
- Ichimoku setup is still bearish. Key reversal points ar 0,20 % (Kijun + 1st trendline) and 0,35 % (Forward Senkou B + 2nd trendline) -> these two levels are absolutely critical, as if they break, the curve trend will change to a longer term strategic steepening
- Heikin-Ashi candles show consolidation since...