Anticipating future #Nasdaq moves...the bigger picture.
Overall market moves higher, but possible 15% decline that could begin at around 10600. If support holds the 8700-9000 area a 30% rally ensues towards 11600, which concludes the completion of a 5000 pt recovery cycle off the COVID19 LO's.
Showing a setup that I am eyeing should price happen to climb and attempt to retake the gap close.
I am potentially shorting the open for a 40 pt, maybe even 90 pt clip.
Tight stop, 5 pts. No need to risk more than that.
Trade is off if it falls lower than 9000.
This is my opinion and trade idea. Please do not consider this as trading advice.
My trading thoughts for early in the week entails both a long and a short. With the markets at extremes, I need to be prepared with both case scenarios. In my opinion, this should be the case always for any trade with the key to knowing what to expect from either side....so this is no different. Trade in and trade out, rinse and repeat.
These trade areas...
We are concluding the price cycle upwards today after the US Non-farm numbers have been released.
Expected at this point is for a down cycle to begin towards the 8100-8000 price area.
If the price cycles work as in years past and this area (RED ZONE) holds, we can see a decline downward with potential consolidation (GREY ZONE), and further...
After today's move down, it might be said this is the beginning of a larger, SHORT, run down...typical to think and may be true! However, based on the price (not wave) cycles I've seen over the years, there is still room to move up to 8400 (and higher) and that is my bias for this trade. Today's action just made it easier to make that move upwards after clearing...
Easy, big-picture setups.
Not much to say other then SELL the HI (Red), BUY the LO (Green).
Target the TOP or BOTTOM of the NEUTRAL zone (Grey).
With proper execution and risk mgmt, would expect a min. 200+ point trade out of that area.
My previous posting has both shorter-term lower targets hit.
The bigger picture:
With the FOMC announcement testing and breaking those limits (not by much), this is proving that last target (7815) area was significant, but could see a NEW LO (7750 area) before a new push back up to meet NEW HI's at the 8100 -8250 area.
Once there, would be looking for...
I'm focusing on the larger down move that can occur at this point:
An area (red) that I will look to trade short in, between 8015 and 7980 with 2 targets in mind
7930 and 7815 (green)
However, if there happens to be a move down at this week's open, I have a level it bounces from at 7910 (yellow). Targeting the SELL area above it.
Something I came across that normally would result in the suggested move...
Selling $175 with a move towards the previous pivot LO with possible continuation towards a gap close.
This would capture a nice 15%+ move.
Continuing with my previous plan (The GAP), this stock is still going to make attempts at $50.
Here are some places where I am looking for a reload of either a shorter term play and/or more of a positional play, IF, the move doesn't just continue down to the original target LO of $50.
As much as I do not follow text book setups, sometimes they do match up...
Although there will be a counter move somewhere/some time against this recent push up, I'm more willing to be a buyer on weakness into the GREEN zone shown -- just as long as price doesn't cross over 7650/7700 beforehand. Should that happen, then retrace entries get tricky for me.
Overall, I still expect price to move up to First Target (7650), Second Target...
It may seem obvious to many that this scenario might play out...buying the LO of the range and selling the top. Although, this time, I interpret the recent action to show that we will make NEW HI's towards 150....even if we still see a bump downward from 149.xx to perhaps 147, before a continued climb.
I will be buying 144.50 area and taking off at 149....
Previously suggested that crude oil would see $38 when we saw price slide in Q4 '18.
I still anticipate this happening especially after this false rally up to $63 or even another push up to $68.
Anything above $69/70, tells me the LO's are in and I would revise the forecast. In other words, we stay under $69/70 and I would expect to see sub-$40 oil.
Continuing with the IPO week for LYFT, here are a couple of new scenarios that may play out ...
Its my belief based on the chart / price action, that this recent LO will determine what happens at the GAP, should price reach it:
A. The current LO is in place, then a revisit to the GAP (and fill) may show as a pivotal resistance point, temporarily. And...
After 1 day of trading, here is a forecast of potential trading action moving forward.
If LYFT catches a bid on its second day of trading, I'd expect a run to test IPO day HI and trap BULLS before a move lower to 70/69.
Otherwise, selling continues down to 69 or lower with any retraces only acting as stall points - 20%+ down from its HI's.
NQ1! Not one to BUY breakouts, but they do occur so its really a matter of when one should trade it.
The chart is pretty simple with the initial BUY point I'm looking at for the open/new week with potential for moves up as the breakout - STOP is approx 20 points. Great R:R.
If price moves lower, there are areas where better BUY's could present themselves....
I've not looked at GBPJPY in quite some time as I've been more active in the futures market.
After a quick review of the chart, I am prepping for a short play at the market open or through last week's close (147.70ish) for a target of at least 100 pips near the 146.50 price line.
Stop is just thru the 148.00 handle. Overall I interpret the chart for moves much,...