Closed my short position around 90. Expecting a retest up to fib6.
Mental stop slightly below the top, fib7 of the swing from the top range. 1h owes us a retracement but big picture, the daily still has to revert up. For the moment, a trade to the downside.
USDCAD Retail Sales Spike False Breakout
GBPUSD Bottoming, Mean Reversion
GBPAUD Long Order Early Entry Anticipation
1.22 in the cards. Waiting for an entry. Probably consolidate a day or two before we get our entry.
20 day range points to below 1.11 by August. Today's candle reversal supports this view.
20 day mean reversion just completed. Weekly downtrend shows signs of turning. If this is the start of an uptrend, we want to look for longs below the recent daily swing low.
With the UJ action today, hitting 109.58 area seems more probable. This will be a good area to take profits or watch for a reversal. Another scenario is we go past 109.58 resistance area and push for the weekly trendline near 112.
Monthly bar hasn't closed but it is already showing expansion. I this is a legitimate breakout into month-end, target would be around 1.18. Weekly bar engulfed previous bars as we got whipsawed by pre FOMC drift the post FOMC trend. I suspect we will soon see one of the strongest hourly trends on EURUSD the past few years.
Short entry 39.93. Target at new lows, coinciding with the measured move.
Textbook H&S (with extra shoulder) threatening to breakdown, waiting for USDCNH to pop. Also look at the moving averages. Expecting around 8% move.
The DXY and USDCNH are similar because the Yuan is pegged to a basket of currencies which the are paired with the USD.
When a breakout happens, target is around 8 to 10% Yuan devaluation. Chinese goods could use a 10% devaluation. I find their goods relatively high priced compared to similar quality goods around East Asia.