Abzorba

Abzorba

Gold is often thought of as the safe haven asset. This long term chart hopes to show how gold has performed during major market declines. Gold performed very well during the Great Depression and during the GFC until March 2009 when it became prudent to go long stocks and close gold positions. But in a number of recessions, gold spiked at the start and then...

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The world economy is facing economic slow down which has not yet affected US markets or the US economy. The recession warning indicator (top section on the chart) is hitting 100%. The 2yr-10yr bonds rates are still inverted and the FED is determined to crush inflation before it adjusts rates. That's all uncertain but significant headwinds are present. Looking...

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I think market sentiment is overly negative. Expectations for inflation is as high as in Q4 2022 when inflation was very high in the US. I expect RINF to be lower by the end of the year than it is today. That is bullish for stocks. If the interest rates go up further then this will finally harm employment levels and reduce profits which will lower US tax...

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The Aussie dollar generally suffers when there's a US slow down. This is likely especially true given China's economic woes. China faces decades of decline. I think of China as Japan in 1989 when everyone believed Japan was about to overtake the US. But debt and a weakening domestic consumer capacity to keep the economic miracle alive led to 30 years of decline....

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TLT is back at prices not seen since 2007. There's a large number of short sellers in profit that will need to buy TLT to close their positions. It's a scary chart but I think it's time to sell treasury bills and buy each new monthly low on TLT on the basis that we're locking in a good long term rate and that inflation isn't going into hyperdrive and long and...

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The yellow line is inflation and the candles show the Dow Jones Transport index which represents the fortunes and costs of transportation companies. Transport is a major cost to getting products to market and so if DJT is going up it often then is reflected in the official inflation rate after a lag. Right now DJT is in a downtrend since the middle of this year....

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XHB may come down to the 200-day simple moving average (yellow line) and wick below but I think the next 8W candle will be green. I think market sentiment is overly negative. Expectations for inflation is as high as in Q4 2022 when inflation was very high in the US. If the interest rates, go up further then this will finally harm employment levels and reduce...

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BRK.B may come down to the 200-day simple moving average (yellow line) but if we are still in an uptrend then it should bounce from there. I think market sentiment is overly negative. Expectations for inflation is as high as in Q4 2022 when inflation was very high in the US. If the interest rates, go up further then this will finally harm employment levels and...

Abzorba Updated 

Intro: Do Bitcoin HODLers fail to take profits at the right time? Do they avoid capitulation at the worst time? Do they sell early in the first rally after a bearish period? The recent data says yes, but that's a change from pre-2021 where HODLer behaviour appears more rational. What changed? Description: Here is the Bitcoin price for the last decade and...

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Looking at the history of Bitcoin, the recent price lows almost got back to the long term ascending trend line. If $33k was the low for the 2022, then it will form another higher low in the chart history. But the broader macro issue is that nations are looking to reduce fiscal stimulus despite the weak world economy, global supply issues and the challenge of...