Admiral_Markets

Admiral_Markets

In our technical piece from last Friday, we called Gold as a 'strong buy' after it broke its multi-year-resistance zone around 1,360/365 USD after a very dovish interpreted Fed last week on Wednesday. 'Unfortunately,' the mentioned dip back towards the breakout region around 1,360/365 USD did not occur, but instead, the precious metal continued to storm higher...

Admiral_Markets

Last Wednesday, the eyes of the market were on the Fed rate decision and their projection for the US economy, as well as the proposed monetary policy decisions from the Fed. While the US central bank did not cut rates, markets found several hints in the Fed statement for several cuts in the second half of 2019 (e.g. in the Fed Dot plot), starting with the next...

Admiral_Markets

Today, the eyes of the market will be on the Fed rate decision. And due to the yield sensitivity of the JPY, we want to focus on the USD/JPY. After the weak NFPs, and the dovish comments from Fed chairman Powell around two or so weeks ago, combined with markets aggressively pricing in three rate cuts from the Fed until December - and we increasingly expect the...

Admiral_Markets

As we enter the start of the trading week the economic calendar is quite thin, so our focus will be on the technical and seasonal aspects of the DAX30 CFD. From a purely technical perspective, the DAX30 CFD can be considered range-bound on an hourly time-frame between 12,050 and 12,220 points. The bearish tendency into the last weekly close gives the neutral...

Admiral_Markets

Today, we want to have a look at Gold. Even though last week's Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed, and it took until Tuesday to see pullback against 1,325 USD, which we discussed in a recent technical analysis. Last Wednesday, the precious metal took on serious bullish momentum again after the US Inflation data came in at 1.8% for May, up from a 5-month high in April...

Admiral_Markets

Today, our focus will be on the USD/JPY and the US inflation rate. Last month, the US annual inflation rate came in at 2% for April 2019, 10 basis points higher from 1.9% the previous month, just below forecasts of 2.1 percent. The question today is whether the rebound in energy prices can be seen today too, allowing prices to stabilise at 2% - the highest rate...

Admiral_Markets

Today, we want to focus on the USD/CAD, and the impact that last Friday’s US and Canadian employment numbers had on the currency pair. The NFPs came in significantly below expectations, at just 75,000 points against the 175,000 expected, with Average Hourly Earnings also disappointing MoM with just 0.2% against the expected 0.3%. On the other hand, the Canadian...

Admiral_Markets

In Monday's idea for Gold we pointed out, that by " reconquering 1,310 USD into the start of the week, further gains up to 1,325 USD are to be expected. Still, we only see this level as a potential stop-over up to the current yearly highs of around 1,347 USD. " And in fact, the yellow metal went to 1,325 USD already on Monday with further gains up to 1,337...

Admiral_Markets

Going hand in hand with the sharp drop in US Treasury yields, which now price in a more than 95% chance of the US central bank FED cutting interest rates at least once by December 2019, the USDJPY followed and dropped below the crucial support region around 108.70. The drop lower continued into the start of the week with the ISM Manufacturing following the US...

Admiral_Markets

Into the start of the new week of trading, we want to take a deeper look at Gold . From a technical perspective the outlook switched to bullish with the head-shoulder formation staying active with the yellow metal trading over 1,310 USD into the start of the week. The main driver seems to be US president Trump's tweet on Friday, announcing imposing tariffs on...

Admiral_Markets

The USD/CAD finds itself in a very interesting spot before today's Bank of Canada rate decision. While no significant change in the monetary policy is expected, and the BoC can be expected to hold interest rates at the current level for an extended period of time, any switch in one direction or the other could cause increased volatility. After Canada posted the...

Admiral_Markets

The start into the new week will potentially be quite unspectacular thanks to the bank holiday 'Memorial Day' in the US, shortening the trading hours. This also holds true for precious metals like gold (Trading Hour Schedule for the May 2019 Holiday Period, including Memorial Day). That said, the market environment today will be very thin and most likely...

Admiral_Markets

Today, we'll be looking at a currently very political currency pair: the EURGBP . Over the last few days, uncertainties surrounding Brexit talks and obvious distrust in both prime minister May, and the opposing Labour Party, resulted in the EUR/GBP moving upwards for 14 trading days in a row after finding support at the current yearly lows around 0.8470. Given...

Admiral_Markets

The focus for the USDCAD still lies on the 1.3500 mark, and a significant break higher couldn't yet be had. There are several reasons for this: for example, last Friday, Canada posted the largest one-month gain in net jobs on record, countering some of the rhetoric we've seen from the Bank of Canada, which fully abandoned its bias towards raising interest rates...

Admiral_Markets

After the Bank of Canada fully abandoned its bias towards raising interest rates during April 24th's meeting, the USD/CAD pushed slightly above 1.3500, but didn't take on any further bullish momentum. But as long as we trade above 1.3250/80 on a daily time-frame, a sustainable run back above 1.3500, with an initial target around 1.3670 on the upside stays on the...

Admiral_Markets

Even though the economic calendar is relatively thin into the start of the week, it will be interesting to see the aftermath of the Non-Farm Payrolls last Friday, Retail Sales data from the Eurozone today and the market's reaction after Trump's announcement of new tariffs on Chinese products on Sunday, emphasising that the negotiations are not going fast...

Admiral_Markets

Today, the eyes of the market will be on the Non-Farm Payrolls, hoping to spot any signal that they'll act as an accelerator in Gold for a break below 1,266 USD. In our opinion, chances of this happening seem likely: after the release of ADP data on Wednesday, reporting that US private businesses hired 275k workers in April (exceeding an expected 180k, and...

Admiral_Markets Updated 

After the break below 1.1180/1200 in the EURUSD last Wednesday, Euro bears are in full control of current price action. There are several fundamental reasons pushing the currency pair to trade lower in the coming week. First, in addition to the diverging yield differential between US and EE, particularly in German yields, there is also additional reinforcement...