AdrianRaymondFX

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About me I worked for 4 years as a currency analyst for Forex Capital Markets, Inc. (FXCM) in Paris, France. Focused primarily on macroeconomic developments that drive currency and metals markets, I use technical analysis to identify trade setups.
Joined France AdrianRaymondFX
Markets Allocation
44 % forex 6 % commodities 5 % stocks 46 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 11% | 12 USDOLLAR 6% | 7 XAUUSD 6% | 7 XAGUSD 5% | 6
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX CADCHF, W,
CADCHF: CADCHF testing a multi-year trend line
91 0 5
CADCHF, W
CADCHF testing a multi-year trend line

The chart speaks for itself really. Sub 0.77 CHF, this pair remains in a bearish trend. That said, this dynamic would eventually end should the SNB ever take more aggressive measures to weaken the CHF against the EUR.

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX EURUSD, D,
EURUSD: $1.1160-80 to be followed closely on EURUSD
326 0 4
EURUSD, D
$1.1160-80 to be followed closely on EURUSD

Risk aversion has been supporting the euro this week (carry trade affected) in a similar manner to what we saw in August 2015, albeit with less volatility so far. EURUSD has risen so much this week, the market seems poised to test the bearish trendline under which we witnessed a sharp selloff in October. This trendline, as well as the 200-DMA are found at ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX XAUUSD, D,
XAUUSD: Gold testing technical pivot ($1304)
289 4 10
XAUUSD, D
Gold testing technical pivot ($1304)

Just like silver, gold is testing an important technical level today. As seen on my chart, $1304 has seen clear tests and breaks since Jan 2015.

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX XAGUSD, D,
XAGUSD: Silver's testing a daily/weekly pivot
125 0 6
XAGUSD, D
Silver's testing a daily/weekly pivot

$18.50 has been a critical technical level since June 2013, and we may see silver prices stall at this resistance today. If so, prices may fall back to the 200-DMA (currently $28.44), and any break below that would suggest a further decline to possibly $16 over the medium term. On the upside, a new break above $18.50 could trigger enough bullish momentum to push ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX AUDJPY, D,
AUDJPY: Clear resistance levels on the AUDJPY
156 1 5
AUDJPY, D
Clear resistance levels on the AUDJPY

This chart speaks for itself really. The AUDJPY is hovering just below its 200-day moving average (currently at 80.11) with a bearish trend line resistance at 80.70/80. Upcoming Japaneses inflation data may provide a catalyst for a more clear direction in prices, which could possibly help determine whether this pair is destined to fall once again or break free of ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX AUDUSD, D,
AUDUSD: AUDUSD is testing a multi-year trend resistance
126 0 6
AUDUSD, D
AUDUSD is testing a multi-year trend resistance

The Aussie dollar has bounced back up to its multi-year trend line, which theoretically may halt the current rally in prices. That said, a break above $0.7700-50 could provide the upward momentum necessary to confirm an important bullish signal. I'm not much of a fan of head-and-shoulder patterns, but it seems like such a setup could be in play were prices to ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX USDJPY, D,
USDJPY: USDJPY testing bearish trendline
213 5 10
USDJPY, D
USDJPY testing bearish trendline

USDJPY is ending the trading week at a level that leaves us all in suspense for the start of next week. The pair is currently trading at 103.96 with a big resistance level at 104.00-30. There would theoretically be a potential for a double bottom should prices break above this resistance next week, but one would be hard pressed to aggressively short the yen so ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX TNX, D,
TNX: US 10-year yield at major crossroads
56 0 5
TNX, D
US 10-year yield at major crossroads

The TNX should be watched very closely next week as the daily chart currently indicates a high risk of seeing another bond rally in the wake of the latest US employment figures (which weren't all that bad). If doubts over a possible Fed rate hike towards the end of the year strengthen in September, the 10-year yield could fall back to it's historical lows, reached ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX XAUUSD, D,
XAUUSD: Gold might be in a wedge (but testing big support ahead of NFPs)
322 0 16
XAUUSD, D
Gold might be in a wedge (but testing big support ahead of NFPs)

Gold on the daily log scale is in an interesting spot right now. Support at $1300-05 has been tested (note the trend line on the daily log chart). While there seems to be some sort of wedge that has taken shape since the start of the year on my chart, I'm not in a bearish mindset as of yet, unless if $1300 is breached following the NFPs Friday. So long as the ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX CAT, D, Short ,
CAT: Caterpillar technicals point to downside risk
42 0 2
CAT, D Short
Caterpillar technicals point to downside risk

CAT reached new annual highs last week but failed to break above an important technical level at $83.90 (50% Fib level in chart). A negative divergence has taken shape in the daily RSI as prices retreat from a trend line resistance tested on 17 August. So long as prices remain below $85.30 (current projected trend line level), we may see CAT correct down towards ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX XAGUSD, D,
XAGUSD: Silver's testing a historical techical pivot, NFPs/Fed in focus
171 2 7
XAGUSD, D
Silver's testing a historical techical pivot, NFPs/Fed in focus

Silver prices have retreated in August, but the rally so far in 2016 provided several technical buy signals earlier this year. These signals suggested at the time that the market's stance on silver, and precious metals in general, was shifting despite the continued backdrop of another possible Fed rate hike (still really low rates!). Today, silver has tested a ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: $1.107 is a technical pivot on EURUSD
109 0 5
EURUSD, D Short
$1.107 is a technical pivot on EURUSD

Check out this technical pivot, that has acted consistently as support and resistance on various occasions since November. Note the 200-DMA at $1.1097. I currently have a bearish take on this pair below $1.12 given the channel support break last Friday, and short entries seem possible below $1.11 today. If prices rise above this level on a daily close basis, I ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX VXV/VIX, D,
VXV/VIX: Large divergence between volatility expectations and stocks
827 1 4
VXV/VIX, D
Large divergence between volatility expectations and stocks

A Tweet from Tracy Alloway with Bloomberg caught my eye this morning (https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/745855941619384321). She points out that the one-month VIX just tipped over the 3-month VXV. While this has happened many times in the past, I did notice that there is a rather large divergence between the VXV/VIX ratio and the SPX right now. The chart ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX NZDUSD, D, Short ,
NZDUSD: Kiwi dollar reaching for important resistance level
127 0 4
NZDUSD, D Short
Kiwi dollar reaching for important resistance level

The Kiwi dollar is reaching fresh 12-month highs this week, and spot prices may hit the $0.72 level within the next couple of trading sessions. In my chart, I've highlighted a channel with a slight upwards angle (compared to the sharp downtrend prior to June 2015) as well as the 38.2% Fib level (2014 highs to 2015 lows). This Fib level actually corresponds with an ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX XAGUSD, D,
XAGUSD: Watch silver's pullback closely
97 0 4
XAGUSD, D
Watch silver's pullback closely

If silver holds above $15.50 this week, a bounce off these trend lines would suggest further upside potential over the medium term to follow through with the reversal signal given back in April. Watch this closely. If there isn't a clear reaction around this level, then I would just forget about this chart and move on.

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX NGAS, D,
NGAS: NGAS testing long-term bearish trend line
131 3 3
NGAS, D
NGAS testing long-term bearish trend line

Not an asset I would recommend to trade given it's highly volatile nature, but I find this chart interesting. Last Friday's high (27/05/16) allows us to establish a trend line starting from February 2014's highs. Hard to say what might happen here, but if prices break above this trendline (resistance at $2.19) sometime in the next week or so, we'd probably see a ...

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX GOOGL, W,
GOOGL: GOOGL looking risky
80 0 2
GOOGL, W
GOOGL looking risky

This figure jumped out at me this morning when I looked at the weekly log chart. I don't have any particular biais or analysis on this stock, but the chart should speak to some of you.

AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX DXY, D,
DXY: One possible bullish scenario for the dollar
83 0 5
DXY, D
One possible bullish scenario for the dollar

Let's keep it as simple as possible. The dollar's in a trading range with clearly-defined support and resistance levels. The market's currently trading in a non-optimal zone for anyone wishing to do long on the dollar. And for those wishing to short, while it may be feasible at current levels for a short-term strategy, you run the risk of seeing the market quickly ...

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