AdrianRaymondFX

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About me I worked for 4 years as a currency analyst for Forex Capital Markets, Inc. (FXCM) in Paris, France. Focused primarily on macroeconomic developments that drive currency and metals markets, I use technical analysis to identify trade setups.
Last visit Joined 2 years ago France AdrianRaymondFX www.DailyFX.fr
Markets Allocation
44 % forex 6 % commodities 5 % stocks 46 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 11% | 12 USDOLLAR 6% | 7 XAUUSD 6% | 7 XAGUSD 5% | 6
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO CADCHF, W, 2 months ago
CADCHF: CADCHF testing a multi-year trend line
79 0 5
CADCHF, W
CADCHF testing a multi-year trend line
The chart speaks for itself really. Sub 0.77 CHF, this pair remains in a bearish trend. That said, this dynamic would eventually end should the SNB ever take more aggressive measures to weaken the CHF against the EUR.
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO EURUSD, D, 2 months ago
EURUSD: $1.1160-80 to be followed closely on EURUSD
321 0 4
EURUSD, D
$1.1160-80 to be followed closely on EURUSD
Risk aversion has been supporting the euro this week (carry trade affected) in a similar manner to what we saw in August 2015, albeit with less volatility so far. EURUSD has risen so much this week, the market seems poised to test the bearish trendline under which we witnessed a sharp selloff in October. This ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO XAUUSD, D, 2 months ago
XAUUSD: Gold testing technical pivot ($1304)
287 4 9
XAUUSD, D
Gold testing technical pivot ($1304)
Just like silver, gold is testing an important technical level today. As seen on my chart, $1304 has seen clear tests and breaks since Jan 2015.
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO XAGUSD, D, 2 months ago
XAGUSD: Silver's testing a daily/weekly pivot
123 0 6
XAGUSD, D
Silver's testing a daily/weekly pivot
$18.50 has been a critical technical level since June 2013, and we may see silver prices stall at this resistance today. If so, prices may fall back to the 200-DMA (currently $28.44), and any break below that would suggest a further decline to possibly $16 over the medium term. On the upside, a new break above ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO AUDJPY, D, 2 months ago
AUDJPY: Clear resistance levels on the AUDJPY
154 1 5
AUDJPY, D
Clear resistance levels on the AUDJPY
This chart speaks for itself really. The AUDJPY is hovering just below its 200-day moving average (currently at 80.11) with a bearish trend line resistance at 80.70/80. Upcoming Japaneses inflation data may provide a catalyst for a more clear direction in prices, which could possibly help determine whether this ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO AUDUSD, D, 4 months ago
AUDUSD: AUDUSD is testing a multi-year trend resistance
124 0 5
AUDUSD, D
AUDUSD is testing a multi-year trend resistance
The Aussie dollar has bounced back up to its multi-year trend line, which theoretically may halt the current rally in prices. That said, a break above $0.7700-50 could provide the upward momentum necessary to confirm an important bullish signal. I'm not much of a fan of head-and-shoulder patterns, but it seems like ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO USDJPY, D, 4 months ago
USDJPY: USDJPY testing bearish trendline
213 5 10
USDJPY, D
USDJPY testing bearish trendline
USDJPY is ending the trading week at a level that leaves us all in suspense for the start of next week. The pair is currently trading at 103.96 with a big resistance level at 104.00-30. There would theoretically be a potential for a double bottom should prices break above this resistance next week, but one would be ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO TNX, D, 4 months ago
TNX: US 10-year yield at major crossroads
55 0 5
TNX, D
US 10-year yield at major crossroads
The TNX should be watched very closely next week as the daily chart currently indicates a high risk of seeing another bond rally in the wake of the latest US employment figures (which weren't all that bad). If doubts over a possible Fed rate hike towards the end of the year strengthen in September, the 10-year ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO XAUUSD, D, 4 months ago
XAUUSD: Gold might be in a wedge (but testing big support ahead of NFPs)
319 0 16
XAUUSD, D
Gold might be in a wedge (but testing big support ahead of NFPs)
Gold on the daily log scale is in an interesting spot right now. Support at $1300-05 has been tested (note the trend line on the daily log chart). While there seems to be some sort of wedge that has taken shape since the start of the year on my chart, I'm not in a bearish mindset as of yet, unless if $1300 is ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO CAT, D, Short , 4 months ago
CAT: Caterpillar technicals point to downside risk
42 0 2
CAT, D Short
Caterpillar technicals point to downside risk
CAT reached new annual highs last week but failed to break above an important technical level at $83.90 (50% Fib level in chart). A negative divergence has taken shape in the daily RSI as prices retreat from a trend line resistance tested on 17 August. So long as prices remain below $85.30 (current projected trend ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO XAGUSD, D, 4 months ago
XAGUSD: Silver's testing a historical techical pivot, NFPs/Fed in focus
170 2 7
XAGUSD, D
Silver's testing a historical techical pivot, NFPs/Fed in focus
Silver prices have retreated in August, but the rally so far in 2016 provided several technical buy signals earlier this year. These signals suggested at the time that the market's stance on silver, and precious metals in general, was shifting despite the continued backdrop of another possible Fed rate hike (still ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO EURUSD, D, Short , 6 months ago
EURUSD: $1.107 is a technical pivot on EURUSD
107 0 5
EURUSD, D Short
$1.107 is a technical pivot on EURUSD
Check out this technical pivot, that has acted consistently as support and resistance on various occasions since November. Note the 200-DMA at $1.1097. I currently have a bearish take on this pair below $1.12 given the channel support break last Friday, and short entries seem possible below $1.11 today. If prices ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO VXV/VIX, D, 7 months ago
VXV/VIX: Large divergence between volatility expectations and stocks
692 1 4
VXV/VIX, D
Large divergence between volatility expectations and stocks
A Tweet from Tracy Alloway with Bloomberg caught my eye this morning (https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/745855941619384321). She points out that the one-month VIX just tipped over the 3-month VXV. While this has happened many times in the past, I did notice that there is a rather large divergence between the ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO NZDUSD, D, Short , 7 months ago
NZDUSD: Kiwi dollar reaching for important resistance level
127 0 4
NZDUSD, D Short
Kiwi dollar reaching for important resistance level
The Kiwi dollar is reaching fresh 12-month highs this week, and spot prices may hit the $0.72 level within the next couple of trading sessions. In my chart, I've highlighted a channel with a slight upwards angle (compared to the sharp downtrend prior to June 2015) as well as the 38.2% Fib level (2014 highs to 2015 ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO XAGUSD, D, 7 months ago
XAGUSD: Watch silver's pullback closely
97 0 4
XAGUSD, D
Watch silver's pullback closely
If silver holds above $15.50 this week, a bounce off these trend lines would suggest further upside potential over the medium term to follow through with the reversal signal given back in April. Watch this closely. If there isn't a clear reaction around this level, then I would just forget about this chart and move on.
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO NGAS, D, 7 months ago
NGAS: NGAS testing long-term bearish trend line
128 3 3
NGAS, D
NGAS testing long-term bearish trend line
Not an asset I would recommend to trade given it's highly volatile nature, but I find this chart interesting. Last Friday's high (27/05/16) allows us to establish a trend line starting from February 2014's highs. Hard to say what might happen here, but if prices break above this trendline (resistance at $2.19) ...
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO GOOGL, W, 8 months ago
GOOGL: GOOGL looking risky
79 0 2
GOOGL, W
GOOGL looking risky
This figure jumped out at me this morning when I looked at the weekly log chart. I don't have any particular biais or analysis on this stock, but the chart should speak to some of you.
AdrianRaymondFX AdrianRaymondFX PRO DXY, D, 8 months ago
DXY: One possible bullish scenario for the dollar
83 0 5
DXY, D
One possible bullish scenario for the dollar
Let's keep it as simple as possible. The dollar's in a trading range with clearly-defined support and resistance levels. The market's currently trading in a non-optimal zone for anyone wishing to do long on the dollar. And for those wishing to short, while it may be feasible at current levels for a short-term ...
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