After an overextended run we have a nice short setup shaping up. Here are the confluence factors:
1) Rejection of 2 Downsloping trendlines (short term and long term trend lines)
2) Deceleration with high test
3) Rejection of Monthly Resistance line at 79.00
4) Rejection of Fib retracement 0.618
5) Rejection of the 50 EMA on daily
6) Stock RSI overbought...
USDNOK looks overextended with finally signal of deceleration with a reversed red hammer high test at the 0.5 Fib retracement at multiple key levels:
1) resistance at around 8.36
2) 50-60 EMA rejection
3) 200-250 EMA rejection
4) Downsloping trendline from July 27, 2016
5) 0.50 Fib Retracement
We have also Stock RSI in overbought status on daily and a clear MACD...
Bounce off Key support level @14855
Bounce of 50-60 EMA
Bounce of Up-sloping Trendline
Bounce off Fib 0.5 retracement
Stock RSI Oversold
Fundamentals: BOJ preparing for massive QE (helicopter money?)
Will be ready to go long against JPY. USDJPY one of the best possible pairs to trade long.
On Weekly time frame bounce of:
- 50-60 EMA
- 0.5 Fib
- Low test as sign of bullish presence at multiple catalysts
- Support @ 15.680
- Up-sloping Trendline (From January 11th)
- Stochastic RSI Oversold
USD Bearish next week after very weak NFP Data.
Possible long at 1.96
0.618 Fib and 50-60 EMA daily
1.96 Daily Support + Support daily long term down sloping trendline.
Stochastic RSI = Oversold
Wednesday Sympathy play with NZD Interest rate meeting catalyst (Expected CUT).
We could see deceleration through
Wednesday and then bounce. Wait for deceleration and price action pattern.
High Test formation on 1.065 Keyline.
Downtrending on Weekly, Daily, 4hr and 1hr chart below 50-60-200 EMA
4hr chart rejection of 20 EMA and R1
1hr chart: rejection of 50-60 EMA
Tweezer Top forming
GDT Dairy price up 1.9% as of December 15th, 2015
NZD GDP higher than previous data.
NZD strong across many currencies
AUD weak fundamentally (commodities : CRBQ very bearish)
1) Bounce off 20 EMA
2) Bounce off Weekly line at 1.08
3) Bounce off Long term up down trendline
4) Bounce off 0.50 Fibonacci Retracement
5) With the trend
6) High Test Candle (Reversed Hammer)
7) Head&Shoulder Pattern on 1H chart (not displayed here)
8) EUR very weak fundamentally
1) Bounce off 200 EMA
2) Bounce off Weekly line at 1.84
3) Bounce off Long term up trendline
4) Bounce off 0.61 Fib Retracement
The only concern is that fundamentally tomorrow
we have tons of news coming for the Canadian dollar.
Technical - Bullish with lots of confluence
Fundamental - bearish for Canadian dollar, therefore bullish for GBP.
Entry trigger point just below the closed red candle (around 0.73283) stop loss just above key weekly resistance at 0.73782.
1) Double Top forming
2) Bounce of weekly Resistance at 0.737
3) Bounce off Fibonacci Retracement 0.618
4) Bounce off 50 EMA
5) High test candle (almost tweezer top)
6) with the trend
7) EUR weak currency fundamentally