The Russian Ruble will follow the rest of the market. RTSI is already on its way to ~200..300. SPX and RTSI and all other indices will bottom out at the same time.
Note that none of the price action in RUB or RTSI is related to the events in Ukraine. It's all part of the global debt unwind. By the end of the crash the entire world will be bleeding heavily, and...
The market has reached the limits of what humans see as rational:
10Y Yields: nearing 4 percent, yes, still acceptable, still manageable.
EURUSD: 0.96..0.98 - with all things happening around the world, yes, understandable.
SPX: down ~1000 points from ATH, totally acceptable for the challenging environment we are in.
But it's all going to be fine. Things will...
0.236 - a frequently encountered fib level for early wave A completion. Wave A breaks out of the channel/trendline, then rolls back by 0.618, and then wave C begins.
BTC should bounce back to 21-21.5k before downtrend resumes.
The market's dominating belief continues to be that EURUSD cannot fall a lot lower than 1.00 to the Dollar. 0.99 - yes. 0.98 - possible. Anything lower is seen beyond the realm of realistic. This is why with all currencies declining vs the dollar, the EURxxx crosses keep climbing to new local highs. The market keeps buying the potential bounce in the Euro, which...
A is strong, C is weak. Wave A wipes out the excessive sentiment accumulated at the end of the previous trend. Wave C is made of trend-followers who will be wiped out next.
The Yen will be the only currency to strengthen agains the dollar over the next few months. Converting your dollar-nominated funds into the Yen is one of the best conservative capital...
A very important local high. The downfall will continue.
The entire world is convinced that the Euro cannot go too much lower than 1.00. It's just physically impossible! By now the big banks should be holding massive short put positions, betting on an inevitable bounce. The market has no other choice than to administer a heavy dose of punishment to those...
The next leg down in the Euro is ready to start next week - but USDJPY is also going down.
Which means that EURJPY is the perfect short at the moment.
Just a humble reminder:
EURUSD to land below 0.79,
USDJPY to hit 100,
EURJPY to break below 88.
Fun times ahead.
The structural developments in VIX suggest that the upward correction in SPX and other indices is nearly completed. EURUSD is also ready to move sharply lower.
In the next couple of months VIX will shoot above 100.
TNX will reach 6-7% or higher,
EURJPY will break below 88,
EURUSD will dip below 0.7990,
USDJPY will hit 100 or lower,
Crude will revisit the $10-15...
The structure holds, and 6-7% in TNX is unavoidable as a sunset by end of day.
The move will be fast (less than two months), and will take the entire market with it:
* SPX will quickly break below 2000 in w3, and then eventually reach 1500 or lower.
* EURUSD will hit 0.80 or lower
* USDJPY will get close to 100
* Crude will revisit 10-15 range
* USDRUB will...
We are set for a very rocky H2. The 2022 reminds me of 2008. I worked at a large multinational back then. I recall we had a full-day off-site event around October. Everyone from our office, 300 people, attended... except the HR. They all stayed in the office and just kept printing the job termination agreements for a good part of the day. The next morning they...