Reminds me of the Final Destination movies - the unsuspecting characters live their peaceful lives, while the invisible hairy hand of the market is meticulously preparing every instrument for a kill.
Treasury yields are scheduled for a big bang this fall, but it will not end in 2023. I think yields will continue to rise into Jan and Feb.
SPX will keep falling...
The negotiation is over, wave C is going down. From the cost of capital perspective, we are going to the past. Back to 1985, the last time we saw 10Y Treasuries at 10%. SPX will get to 1500 or lower, EURUSD will get to 0.75, USDJPY will hit 100, USDRUB will touch to 270.
Enough numbers. Let's talk music. What would be the theme for such a move? I have two...
It's very likely I'm the only guy on this planet who sees TNX at 10% in H2'23. Whether I'm right - we'll see. I don't read Prechter's analytics any more, but would be curious to know their stance.
Michael Burry was right shorting the S&P via long puts on Monday. The timing is perfect.
When TNX gets to 10%, there will be bloodbath everywhere.
SPX will be below...
The Yuan will weaken to 10 against the dollar in Sept-Dec.
Structurally, the ratios very unambiguously point to this price target.
Timing-wise, it will almost certainly coincide with the crash in Treasuries that is also due this fall.
It will be really cool to see USDJPY get above 145 in wave E of the correction.
As usual, it's not about the Yen - it's about EURJPY, as the market goes all in to keep the uptrend in EURJPY alive.
By now EURUSD is certainly locked in the downtrend, already heading to 0.75, so USDJPY will try to compensate one more time.
The bull market still has a couple of weeks to go. We've completed wave A and B of the primary 5, and there is just one leg up remaining in wave C, which will take us to 8000.
I'll be listening to the French BFM radio as we approach the top. I want to hear them rejoice over "Le CAC40 pulverisant les 8000 points".
Then the bull market will end. I'm talking about...
Ever since the end of the bear market in 2009, the French and the world's economy were squeezing growth out of the weakening economy in non-organic ways, predominantly by borrowing more and by increasing the government spend.
Toxic social trends emerged and flourished at the same time: inclusivity, equity, belligerent feminism, dismissal of real masculinity,...
The post-rebellion advance should be retraced. I was in that trend, it really felt smooth like butter, going up with no resistance at all. Means that too many longs have entered the game and a correction should follow.
End of a triangle in EURCAD that began 38 years and 4 months ago in Feb 1985. Sometime you need to look that far in order to understand what's going on.
We should see wave C of E pushing EURCAD above 1.56 in July.
One of the properties of extended waves 5 is that they start really slow. The disbelief in the nascent uptrend is so strong that the counter-trend sentiment just keeps rising as the trend develops and matures. Only toward the middle of the trend the public begins to realize that something's wrong.. and then all happens.
The downtrend will take a few months, will take EURUSD to 0.75, USDJPY to ~100. At the same 10Y treasuries will get to 10-12%, SPX will crash to 1500, USDRUB will reach 250+. Crude will revisit single digits.
USDJPY still has one leg up to go until it hits 142.5...146.
The sole objective of FX market over the last 15 years was to push EURJPY up, and this little upswing in USDJPY is the last attempt to move it higher by a few pips, before both EURUSD and USDJPY crash down together, dispatching EURJPY to below 88.
All of this is supposed to happen in H2'23.