More weakness in the RUR, EUR, GBP, NZD, AUD coming soon, which should happen together with a sell-off in Treasuries. A very strong downtrend in EUR crosses should be expected at the same time.
The EUR still targets 0.90 or below.
At the same time, the Russian Ruble will be triple-hammered by:
a) the strengthening dollar
b) the falling Crude prices
Here's a historical note from 1929:
* September 3, 1929: the Dow peaks at 381.17, after a somewhat shaky spring and a very bullish summer.
* September-early October: stocks decline mildly, but no panic yet.
* October 15: The leading US economist Irving Fisher famously proclaimed "The stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau".
USDRUB is preparing for the last very violent move in DXY. The peripheral currencies sense something's wrong earlier than the rest of the pack.
My forecast is intact:
1) One last upswing in DXY is due, and it will be an extremely violent one.
2) All currencies are due to lose 20..50% (EURUSD below 0.90), except the Yen (USDJPY will land at 84..87 at the same...
Risk parity, optimal portfolios, efficient frontiers: all go down the drain.
Because when everything goes down, it just goes down, like the droplets of sweat on the fund managers' faces.
A good deal of market moves that are deemed ABCs are, in fact, ABCDEs: w.A, then B, then a very weak C, followed by wave D, and completed by wave E, which accomplishes everything...
3000 points down from 1.1915.
My view is intact: we are going to land below 0.90, likely before the American people cast their votes. This sell-off in the EUR will later be called the "fastest and most violent move in the history of FX markets".
I expect full alignment and synchrony in the moves in USDJPY, EURUSD, Euro-crosses, Treasuries, Stocks and Crude: all...
The structure is similar to USDCAD. We are approaching the culmination of price action in USDRUR and in other currencies. This will be an overextended, violent move, happening together with everything else crashing. Targets: 110-120 looks realistic and reasonable, but I think the move will go beyond anything reasonable so 140 should be expected.
The move in USDJPY should accompany the sell-off in SPX and other indices. SPX should try to approach 1000 - it's only getting started, so brace yourself.
Since EURJPY is also staging a huge downtrend, I see no other option than for EURUSD to collapse at the same time as USDJPY. EURUSD is heading below 0.9, and all ingredients for that move are there: the base...
The advance in Crude that began on April 20th is failing and should be fully retraced in the next leg down (wave 5 / of 3?). The downtrend began on June 23rd, and the primary 1-2 are already there, so a sharp fall should be expected, which is in line with the coming weakness in the CAD and RUR.
We should get lower than 10 at the end of the red w5.
USDJPY is exiting a 4-month long triangle, so the price action should soon become more fast-paced. It's reasonable to expect the downtrend in USDJPY to happen together with the sell-off in stocks. The downtrend in USDJPY is likely to run in parallel with the collapse of the EUR, so shorting EURJPY may be a good idea too.
(See attached a longer-term view of USDJPY).
The advance is failing and a sell-off is imminent. This time the Treasuries will go down together with stocks, so this will be a sell-off like no other in the last 40 years. Structurally everything is ready in both.
DXY is in a very strong uptrend, but nobody sees it that way. Everybody is convinced that the dollar is too strong and from here on it will only go...
I am convinced that that the bull market of the last few decades is over, so AAPL chart has traced out the wave structure which is in line with my beliefs.
What's going to happen soon is not a brief correction, as seen in 2000-2000 or 2008. We are going to experience a long-term bear market, which may last multiple years or even decades.
Note to TSLA fans: after...
USDCAD has completed A and B within wave 5 of a multi-year ending wedge. Wave 5 seems to run faster than wave 3: It took 1.5 months to form AB in wave 3, and less than a month in wave 5.
I took a look at a few ABCs of type "small AB, large C": the time ratio of C / AB is often around 70%, so we may end the entire C (2500..3000 pips) still in July, which looks...
The advance from 3800 is a reactive impulse: it's not the beginning of a new structure, but it's a wave C of a larger corrective move. It will be fully retraced, and then the next uniform range will be taken out below. 1400 is the next realistic target, looks good on the log scale.
This looks cleaner on DXY chart, but I think this time we have a solid 1-2-1-2 in EUR, the advance is clearly failing and a strong downtrend is due. From here on, I expect EUR to be falling faster than GBP, NZD and CAD, driven by collapsing EURxxx crosses.