The market's dominating belief continues to be that EURUSD cannot fall a lot lower than 1.00 to the Dollar. 0.99 - yes. 0.98 - possible. Anything lower is seen beyond the realm of realistic. This is why with all currencies declining vs the dollar, the EURxxx crosses keep climbing to new local highs. The market keeps buying the potential bounce in the Euro, which...
A is strong, C is weak. Wave A wipes out the excessive sentiment accumulated at the end of the previous trend. Wave C is made of trend-followers who will be wiped out next. The Yen will be the only currency to strengthen agains the dollar over the next few months. Converting your dollar-nominated funds into the Yen is one of the best conservative capital...
A very important local high. The downfall will continue. The entire world is convinced that the Euro cannot go too much lower than 1.00. It's just physically impossible! By now the big banks should be holding massive short put positions, betting on an inevitable bounce. The market has no other choice than to administer a heavy dose of punishment to those...
There is an astronomical destructive power accumulated in this structure. The world will turn into a very different place once it's released to the downside. Sept-Oct.
The next leg down in the Euro is ready to start next week - but USDJPY is also going down. Which means that EURJPY is the perfect short at the moment. Just a humble reminder: EURUSD to land below 0.79, USDJPY to hit 100, EURJPY to break below 88. Fun times ahead.
Extended wave 5, the correction goes back to its wave 2. The downtrend should continue. The next meaningful target is near 100.
The structural developments in VIX suggest that the upward correction in SPX and other indices is nearly completed. EURUSD is also ready to move sharply lower. In the next couple of months VIX will shoot above 100. TNX will reach 6-7% or higher, EURJPY will break below 88, EURUSD will dip below 0.7990, USDJPY will hit 100 or lower, Crude will revisit the $10-15...
VIX will shoot above 100 in the next couple of months. EURJPY will break below 88, EURUSD will get to 0.80, Crude will revisit 10-15 range, SPX will find peace at ~1500.
The structure holds, and 6-7% in TNX is unavoidable as a sunset by end of day. The move will be fast (less than two months), and will take the entire market with it: * SPX will quickly break below 2000 in w3, and then eventually reach 1500 or lower. * EURUSD will hit 0.80 or lower * USDJPY will get close to 100 * Crude will revisit 10-15 range * USDRUB will...
We are set for a very rocky H2. The 2022 reminds me of 2008. I worked at a large multinational back then. I recall we had a full-day off-site event around October. Everyone from our office, 300 people, attended... except the HR. They all stayed in the office and just kept printing the job termination agreements for a good part of the day. The next morning they...
I can see the targets of EURUSD=0.80 and USDJPY=100 on their respective charts, and I can see that same picture reconfirmed by the long-term structures formed in EURJPY. The extraordinary beauty of the markets.
This could very well be the end of wave 4. Ticks all the boxes, time-wise (precisely one month), and structure-wise (very clean ABCDE, powerful E at the end). 1000..4000 should be tagged. BTC will not be alone. Correlations tend to peak towards the end of the bearish wave. At the time when EURUSD will be flirting with 0.80, BTC might very well find peace of mind...
The bigger question is what's going to happen next.
One more leg down in VIX is likely. The market waits for H2 results to come in, so some quiet time is still available.
By mid August the worldwide market crash will not only begin, but is very likely to already go past its acute phase. Some afterparty left for August and Sept, but the most dramatic action is going to unfold in the next few weeks. During the crash USDCNY will definitely hit 7.32, but I expect it to go a lot higher. 7.80..7.90 is definitely on the radar. 8.20 is...
SPX is trying to get a minor new high before it gets dispatched to below 1500. I'm not kidding at all when I call that target. At the same time, the 10-year Treasuries will hit 6%, while the Euro will hit 0.8. Why am I assuming those will happen at the same time? Because they are part of the same thing! The Dollar, Treasuries and Stocks are part of the same...
The advance is failing and the downtrend takes over. With the Pound targeting 1.00 to the dollar, down there, at the bottom, EURUSD will be roughly equal to EURGBP. EURGBP targets 0.76, EURUSD should land slightly higher: 0.79..0.80.
JPMorgan sees Crude at $380. I disagree. It's just not possible at the moment. A completely unexpected (as usual) crash to 10..20 must happen, and it will pulverize the accumulated bullish sentiment. That's the way markets work. btw, USDRUB can easily get to 200 in H2'22.