Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

Now that the down move has reached the up trend line it appears as if it is time to look for a run back to the upside. The trend line on the daily chart shows support at the moment and if it holds will provide a good reward to risk ratio.

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

EURGBP found enough energy to break out of the triangle but it appears as if a 78.6% level may be putting a slight hold on the upward move. The anticipation is that the fib level will hold and that the move out of the triangle is a fakeout. Look for more downside order flow if price moves back into the triangle.

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

Looking for some downside here in the EURAUD since it has made its way to the channel upper trend line. The time to consider short trades is at this point with a target of the channel lower trend line.

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

Here is the Weekly chart of the USDJPY with a nice test of the 200 SMA. Keep an eye on it for more upside as long as price can stay above the moving average

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

Here is a setup that I watch where the market is testing the daily chart 200 sma. As long as price can stay above the 200 SMA then the likelihood increases for more upside.

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

Taking a look at the long term cycles you can see that the market took about fifteen years to create the wave from 1985 to 2000. Here we sit at the bottom of the subsequent cycle after that and you have everyone and their mother thinking that the euro 0.09% will go to parity. This has led me to thinking that the sheeple out there are drinking too much of the...

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

THE BIG PICTURE: This is the daily chart of EURUSD with the reverse head and shoulders pattern. At the moment of this publishing it is still premature to consider the formation complete. The anticipation is to have the market close above the neckline. If this occurs then it sets up for a higher likelihood that the Euro will start to trade toward the 1.1250...

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

After a retracement to a significant fib level the Euro rejected the 61.8% area and subsequently violated the down channel. This sets up for an ideal entry on the higher timeframes if the fib level holds. The plan for me is to wait for a flag to form now that the down channel has been broken. The bullish flag will be the actual trigger I use to enter the trade....

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe Updated 

You can see a minor channel violation which pushed price into the 38% fib level. A retracement back to the back side of the channel was rejected to provide confirmation. The anticipation is a bounce at the 38.2% fib level before making its way back toward the 50% level. It's better to wait for an attempt to rally back up to the recent high before actually...

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

THE BIG PICTURE: A look at the weekly chart shows a recent high established just beyond the 50% fib level. Notice reversal bar right at the fib level which shows how strong the sellers were are that point. The latest bars are just a continuation of that flush of selling which transpired at the recent swing high. This opens the door for a move down not only to...

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

THE BIG PICTURE: This pair has been trading between an important long term down trend line and also a major 50% fib level. For the time being the bears and bulls are battling it out and creating a triangle formation in the process. There is a chance that this pair could retrace back toward the 61% level before climbing higher. The anticipation is that the fib...

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

On the weekly chart, notice the 200sma which can act like a magnet. Short term the anticipation is that the yen trades down to the major support levels and finds the buyers. My anticipation is that the 38% fib level may be overshot by just enough to reach the weekly moving average. At that point I would not be surprised if the yen makes a quick move down to the...

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

Keep an eye on the weekly chart in gold as you can see it is approaching a resistance confluence. The weekly 200sma is sitting in between the major fib levels. Anticipate a bearish reversal formation on the lower time frames which sets up for downside targets.

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

This chart shows the weekly timeframe with a 200sma plotted and you can also notice the major swing which has fib levels as well. Notice that the simple moving average is resting between the 38.2% and 50% fib levels. This may act as a magnet which suggests that the yen will surpass the 38% fib level but not fully reach the 50% fib level. At the time when the...

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe Updated 

Taking a look at the weekly, notice the 200sma is floating right around the 50% fib level. An interesting level to pay attention to as it has the potential to provide a nice risk to reward ratio.

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

The idea here is that Cable appears to be holding the 50% fib level recently established. This sets up for a move to extend down toward the 1.22 zone. The trade is still valid as long as there is no violation of the 1.27 level. This provides a wide enough stop so that the projected level can be reached. The probability of the target being reached increases...

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe Updated 

THE BIG PICTURE: A major fib level can be seen if you measure segment BC. The measurement finds a 61% retracement level just above 1.12 which has been slightly breached. There is another level down at the 1.03 zone which can be seen using the fib extension tool and measuring segment AB and projecting from point C THE TECHNICAL STANPOINT: As long as the 61.8%...

Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe

Long Term levels were broken convincingly enough to raise probability on some down side projections. There are two separate scenarios which provide an insight into how much lower this market could go. The ABCD and the Head and Shoulders patterns are used as a reference for determining the downside potential. Regardless of whether or not the downside targets are...