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We had a huge breakout of the main channel on the 4 hour chart, and it's been dropping more and more.
So what's a trader to do, jump on board and hope it keeps falling? Or grab a buy thinking it has gone far enough, and hope you were right?
It helps to know where we're at and where the structure is headed, take a look.
PS - The answer to the questions above is ...
Expecting one more up (depending on your count), but wait for some pullback before buying. Good RR ratio if you get in at the right time. But don't get too greedy with targets, we don't beyond the top trend line. And even if you miss this one don't worry, there is more opportunity within this setup for selling coming soon.
Anticipating some big movement upwards now that we have finished a completed 5 wave move. After the ABC correction completes we're looking to BUY.
Potential targets are:
- Previous wave 5 high
- 127 extension (which happens to be around the same length as the larger wave 1)
- 1618 extension (along the previous main structure, June 30, 2016)
If you can count, you can trade :)
Okay don't let that be your only requirement for trading, but here's the idea; even if we're not on the same page (ideal vs. alternative wave count) you'll notice a pattern. The first complete wave when overlapped with the second completed wave (as done so in the top right corner) showed an astonishing resemblance.
It will ...
Notice where two and four reached as anticipated. Expecting a potential sell, now we are waiting for a break of the low trend line.
A bird's eye view of the NZDJPY chart seems pretty clear. Higher highs and higher lows are occurring and if history repeats itself then we can expect one more drive upwards, possibly up to the major monthly trend line.
Expecting a drop down with this final wave with the larger trend.
It's a good idea to make a "case for entry" any time you consider entering a trade, rather than just closing your eyes and clicking buy or sell because of a "gut instinct". Of course we can still be incorrect, but over time hopefully right more often than wrong.
So here we go, 3 reasons to think about selling:
1. We're at the top of the main trend border ...
Big head and shoulders formation happening at the top trend line, once it completes we're looking to SELL with a great risk to reward ratio.
Could be a little more sell but keep in mind the main bottom trend line isn't too far away:
The previous double top didn't pan out, depending on how you trade them. So now we have at least two potential path options at this point.
1. We've been following upwards with more movement after each flag/triangle pattern breaking, if it happens again we'll BUY.
2. If the current formation (which just broke slightly through the top trend line) turns into a ...
Firstly, this isn't a strategy but take a look.
You may notice that there's a bit of a pattern happening here. Every 41 bars or so (about every 3.4 years) there is a significant dip in the price, most prominent among those of course are the January 2015 and August 2011 massive falls that caught many traders by surprise.
The intervals are eerily similar as we ...
Looking at the overall higher time frame trend we're going down, and within that channel we're about half way down in the current drop. A basic AB-CD projection after consolidation of a possible triangle or flag could give us another 2800 pips movement like we saw in the recent bearish fall.
Don't enter hastily as you may end up waiting for weeks (literally) ...
Never hurts to plan ahead and anticipate what may happen. Even better, be ready to take action no matter which way the price goes.
IF the price breaks the bottom trend line and consolidates we will look for a SELL.
IF the price sticks around the bottom border then perhaps look for a reversal pattern, then we may BUY.
Looking at a sell opportunity on this one. As you can see we've had some successful 2618 trades within the higher time frame trend channel (even ones against the trend). Looking to sell this double top now since it retraced to the 618 level and even above. Plenty of room for multiple targets, enjoy!
Initially we were waiting for the consolidation to complete before buying again. Some small profit was made if watching carefully, we then shifted gears noticing this developing head and shoulders reversal patter. Not all predictions are 100% correct. Let's swallow our pride, make adjustments as needed and SELL :)
Even the Good Book says, "A man's pride shall ...
We have some good confirmation for a SELL opportunity as we speak:
1. Recent double top and retraced to 618+ level (2618 valid)
2. Higher time frame down trend
3. Price bounced off top trend line a couple of times and didn't break
Good risk to reward ratio.
A bigger bird's eye view gives us a better perspective of what's going on and also what's more likely to happen. Recently (few months back) saw a bounce off the bottom trend line (a low which hasn't been broken since 2001.
On a daily chart the upper trend line is expected to break and then we will BUY after consolidation.