Split personality of Mr. Market is at full display with 100 point swings on either side of the rope. So what do we make of it? Well, nothing really :) Instead of being bogged down too much into the analysis of inconclusive and inconsistent themes of the current market, just trade it technically. Albeit, with reduced position and with strict risk control...
Our patient and pragmatism has been rewarded handsomely with bucket full of pips in trading GBP/USD. It has been mentioned numerous times that why buying a big 500 / 1000 pip washout in GBP/USD makes sense, so we are not going to repeat it. Again it is time to get cautious and we will be looking to book profit on our long positions ( initiated near 1.2200) during...
Unabated US Dollar march higher continues but there will be pockets of support and resistance for individual currency pairs where we can define the risk and trade it for few pips gain with probability in our favor. Yield advantage of Antipodean currencies is not going to go away overnight and that will keep supporting AUD/USD and NZD/USD during the drops. Today...
With world politics in flux and inability of financial markets to stick with any theme longer than few hours, it is difficult to hold something with conviction. Current environment for Gold is not productive and that means lower price in coming sessions. But as we know, things don't move in straight line, we are open to trade it from both sides without any...
If US president elect Donald Trump is serious and capable enough to change the Tax code then of course companies will repatriate the income stashed abroad and that will help equities ( more buybacks, what else they can do anyway ! ;) ) and US dollar gain more. If things don't go as planned and because of some inadvertent event, equity starts melting down from...
There is a reason why doctors don't use 1" SS pipe for endoscope. To solve any problem, first you need to understand the root cause of the problem. Then apply the best solution possible. Demonetization ( as it is being sold to the public ) is actually just a currency swap ! Indian Government wants to address three major problems with just one move i.e....
See Part 1 in link A Case For Recession You don't use sword when knife is needed. Being a good trader, you need to have a touch of cynicism. Don't take anything at the face value. Rather than being dragged emotionally, you need to understand the things with realistic perspective. While it is true that many millions have been wiped out of the pockets of the...
Having enough fun yet?! ;) It's been exciting roller coaster ride so far. We are not gonna dabble into the politics of everything but we will try to understand the things strictly with respect to the market's standpoint. It is too early to predict the consequences of the two great surprises, 1.) Donald Trump wining the US presidential election and 2.) Sudden ban...
Happy New Year to all. New year has arrived with new opportunities. It is always good to start a new year with profitable note. Our short NIFTY and other selected stocks positions ( via puts of courses ) is well in green and now it looks like the test of solid support levels near 8200 / 8000 is inevitable in coming sessions. Many of the trades we have...
Diwali - The festival of positivity and light has began, which may help tone down the volatility. There is no guarantee of big bounce but with lack of enough participants and superstitious people who like to start the new year with buying something than shorting, it may try to retest 8750. Again 8750 / 8000 resistance level is on focus. Based on our previous...
One can easily bet that there will be a flash crash in some security in next month or two. Market structure has been damaged or evolved into something where we have to adapt to such dangerous trading conditions which can wipe your equity in seconds if not protected. Besides that, one need to rein the expectations from easy 200 pips to hard fought 20 pips. Based...
Saturation point for equities has arrived. For the time being at least. Full fledge Brexit bandwagon, US election uncertainty and Fed rate hike certainty is going to put a lid on equities. One can argue that we have been on this path before and stocks are always supported after big drops. While that argument is valid, investors should not rush to buy it during...
Political and economic realities may be different but trading happens in different universe of its own ! That universe per se is perceptions of traders. Especially those traders or institutions which can move the market with blunt force. Why? because if 1000 people with $100 in pocket bet on something to go up, and few with $1 Billion bet against it then you...
It is not a good time to be a share holder of IT companies. We have outlaid reasons for IT stock softness earlier which you can check in earlier posts. Especially someone secondary player like Tech Mahindra it is going to be really tough going forward. If it has something in it, then it is time to show now. Technical picture is already clouded for the stock...
In absence of any long lasting big trend, we need to resort to hit and run kind of strategy to keep the pip count growing. Market is seesawing between the periods of USD strength and weakness on hourly bases, similar to US employment scenario where there are lots of part-time hourly jobs but lack of fulltime high paying jobs. Let's check out few important pairs...
Bharat Electronics' ( BEL ) stock is stuck between 1000 and 1400 for past one and half year. Jump from 300 to 1300 was swift but then some reality caught up. Usual market buoyancy and fertile ground for equities due to central bank policies has made the valuation part confusing. As we mentioned earlier that it is futile to fight easy money and stock market will...
Is it time to be bullish on cement companies? Fundamentally yes but technically no. And when both differ, always side with technical picture because price action is the ultimate truth no matter what we believe. Besides this stock has tendency to big jumps and subsequent drops of equal measure. India is undergoing construction boom and at this point it looks...
No one should be under any delusion about how market is going to act next time Fed primes market for what they don't have courage to do. Just few days ago we laid out our trade plan under the post - " USD Buying - Fool's Paradise ". In another recent post also we mentioned about how to trade current market situation by identifying the theme and exploiting the...