So first off, lets see how today's daily candle closes.
We have already broken the low of friday's drop BUT not quite broken the low of last week.
I am favoring shorts currently as there are a few technical levels USOIL has failed to retake.
1. 200 day SMA at 61.66, price came quite close to testing the average but failed to gain any more bullish momentum
I highlighted what may be turning into a supply level for oil.
This is previous support, may be acting as new resistance?
If nothing else, Friday has a very high probability of being a retrace day as profits are taken off the table.
Currently Oil has been on a strong bull run, it would be logical for today to end red.
Things to watch:
A possible deeper...
Just a daily reminder that Oil is still bearish.
Saudis and Russians trying to prop up the price of oil by slashing output, obviously the market will react to this as we can see already.
None of this changes the fact that production levels are still hovering near record levels with dwindling demand for oil.
We can see that via manufacturing declines.
Clearly bullish, yens are very, very weak across the board and dollar is recovering nicely.
One thing I see, the slope of this channel is very steep. Could be an unhealthy trend.
But it is so far above the 200 SMA that at this point even a retrace to that average could be a very big trade.
I highlighted one zone for the pair. Could push past into the next...
While I have been caught up in the sheer momentum of this bullish trend, it seems day after day I wake up to GJ up 90 up 50 up 100 pips.
Today we had news, UKCPI produced a good result for the pound which lead to a 90 pip spike.
There was no follow through whatsoever as bulls took profit after the news.
I caught a retrace right after the news and was happy...
This pair to me is screaming to sell either now or very soon.
Look how closely the price has respected the mid point of this descending channel.
It was a buy at the second leg of the double bottom, bulls will be taking profit soon and thus a retrace will be in order to retest the double bottom.
Picking between NZD and JPY, two of the weakest currencies is a...
GBP has been very strong last week and again so far this week.
Today the story is strong GBP and slightly weak Dollar.
Brexit news keeps coming and as they say, the market loves to react only to the news that fits the trend.
If this zone does not contain GU then look for much higher levels.
This channel may prove to be too steep for GU and could lead to some...
This zone is very, very strong.
EU is technically above the 200 EMA on the 4 hour, so ideally you would look for buys, BUT I see a pretty clear supply zone that I have marked.
I question if the zone stops EU this time as the rally just from Friday is already fairly strong so far.
Could this have enough bullish momentum to break above the most recent turning...
I am wondering today if that move (marked by the arrow) is the deepest retrace that we will see for WTI for now.
50% is a pretty common retrace, I would have expected 61.8% like the last move but that could mean Oil is trying to set some higher lows while consolidating under $71.
Ideas: look to see if $71 is broken convincingly this week. The storms in the US...
I have been short biased for awhile on USDMXN as you know.
I adjusted the angle of the current descending channel, we shall see how accurate the channel is this week.
This time I carried a trade over from Friday, something I almost never do. I get anxious holding overnight let alone over a weekend.
In this instance, my trade just took profit, which makes me...
That is unless you like to step in front of freight trains.
Brexit news has been random and hits hard enough to make this pair continue chugging along upwards.
Personally, as you can see from my previous ideas and my trades Friday, I was bearish GJ.
At this time I am not planning to go short until I see some actual exhaustion.
I will leave the channel intact...
I am surprised to see how close today’s wick came to the previous top before retracing some.
Oil could easily retrace into the 67s however the EIA report was mildly bullish today with supplies being drawn slightly faster than predicted. API was also bullish.
The other case for bulls comes from the hurricanes en route to the East Coast and Gulf Coast.
I remain short biased on this pair, 19.68 seems to have served as a turning point for now and lines up with a Fibonacci retrace.
The pair can continue down so long as NAFTA news continues to be positive.
Weak dollar can come into play along with higher oil prices, all of which lend to bearish bias.
I remain short biased on GJ so long as 146 and the 200 day EMA contains bullish moves.
Carney and the BOE tomorrow could move this to make a run for the 200 day ema, thus I will not have another trade until the news settles.
Possible that 146 is being confirmed as a double top on the daily chart.
SO Price broke the previous resistance zone and so far is holding above, also holding an R4 breakout for now.
Some relief may come in the form of a retrace as this channel is quite steep and could easily break to the downside.
CAD News has not done any favors for the CAD bulls and for now this pair may be waiting for a hint at NAFTA news.
Positive NAFTA news...
So my last idea saw USDMXN contained within the descending channel. Now clearly price has broken out for dollar bulls and we can see some sharp moves as Emerging Markets are in the headlines this week.
Argentina speaking with the IMF.
South Africa in recession.
Turkey still with unresolved issues.
The Mexican Peso has been the strongest of the emerging market...
I am more neutral on gold, I see a weak retracement of the current bounce from the bottom set a few weeks ago.
This could easily continue a bullish rally as emerging market concerns are continuing to drive investor fear.
All in all could mean strong demand for gold as a safe haven.
I would look for 1210 to be broken and a strong close above this area for the...
I have marked out what *May* be a level for oil to turn lower for a retrace of this bullish run.
If the rounding top is set, I could see oil easily pushing to 67 for a minimum 50% retracement of the bullish rally.
If the rounding top is broken by a close above 71, 72-75 could be achieved within reason before the next pause in bullish momentum occurs.