About meFull time trader. Creator of SAM, a financial publication.
"It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that?"
The longer I have traded, the more I believe that is true.
Resistance at .72 and the 100 DMA (red line) has held for the past 3 days.
A failure here could see a move back down toward the 200 DMA (green line).
I am looking to sell but I am not sure how aggressive I want to get before the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.
I will probably sit on my hands in this pair until Thursday.
Month-to-date trading results
The cross held the uptrend line as noted on the chart.
If that level breaks, the 200 DMA (green-dotted line) and the 1.30 level will look to hold the slide.
I like the long side if these levels hold and will be looking for long positions after the FOMC on Wednesday.
Price close to resistance level .7500/10 area.
On the downside, 7430 is first level of support.
Two big economic events, both on Tuesday. The FOMC announcement and the AUD employment report.
These two reports could break the 7430/7510 range. I would keep positions small and stops tight if you are trading this pair b/f Wednesday.
1.27 is a pivot level. I would look for that level to hold on first touch.
On the downside, I would look for the 100 & 200 HMA ( see chart) to provide initial support.
I would keep my positions light and stops tight until after the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.
Most likely will be range bound until after the FOMC event on Wednesday.
I would look for resistance at the 100 & 200 HMA as noted on the chart(red arrow)
Hourly support at 1.0590/1.06. I believe it is thin support. Better support 1.0500/15.
I am short from the 116 level. My initial target is 112, my stop is 116.25.
The cross has been straight up since November. I believe the R/R favors a short position from these levels. That does not mean we will not see a new high, it means the probabilities favor a short position, IMO.
Trading is about making reasonable estimations, not certainties.
SBUX has run into a falling trendline, which is holding the topside for now.
I do not typically short stocks, but for a technical short trader, these levels might be interesting.
If I was shorting, I would key on $52.50. If that level breaks, 40-42.50 is a downside target.
Short and looking for lower prices
Price found sellers at a previous low print on 6/16 around 145.40. I sold with as stop above today's high.
My first target is the green arrow at 142.20. If and when it gets there I will decide what to do next.
Markets rarely go one way for an extended period of time. This cross has been straight up since 11/9 with one minor dip....
Nike is holding support at $50. A break below $50 could target support at $42.50-45.
I do not own NKE. I own UA, and their chart looks very similar.
Will the $50 level hold?
No one knows, the question is whether you believe the R/R is attractive and how much are you willing to risk to find out.
I am holding off for now, but will look to...
Price is coming up on the $36 level. This level has held as support going back to 2009
I don't know if it will hold but the R/R seems to favor a long position IMO.
I have not dug into the fundamentals yet, so if you have any insights, please leave a comment.
The R/R seems to favor the long side.
The price action seems to favor the long side.
I am long at 1.4964 looking for 1.54
My stop is at 1.4825
The R/R is ~ 3/1
With intelligent estimations, we can work to get the rough order of magnitude right, understand the consequences if we’re wrong, and always be sure to never fool ourselves after the fact.
That sums up...
You can't see it on the chart but the 2 level has been a good level to sell against in the past.
I sold at 1.0170, stop at 1.0215. Initial target is 1.0000.
Here is my checklist I go through before taking a trade.
Is this trade worth taking?
* Where is the R/R right now? Is it obvious?
* Is the market trending or ranging in the time frame...
Price is testing support that goes back to April of 2014 around 185ish. Not much support under $180, so a downside target would be a guess.
What to do?
I am looking to buy at some point, depends if the $180 level holds. I will update this post if and when I buy.
If you have any opinions on the fundamentals please leave in the comments.
So far holding support in the 30 area. The R/R favors a long position, IMO.
I am long and looking for a move above the 52.50 level.
I will start to scale out of this position under 27.50.
Price breaking above 71.80. The next upside target is ~83.50ish +16%
Good support down at 65.00.
What to do?
I feel like I have missed the boat when it was at 65. Aggressive traders might be buying here, but I am going to wait.
Potash is currently holding support going back to 2009 around 16.00.
The first level of supply is not until the 36 level, over 135% to the upside.
Here is a nice write-up.
What to do?
I am long this stock. I will look to stop out under $10. I will hold this position until I am either stopped out or my 1st target of 38 is hit....
The cross is holding the 82 level. Good support on the daily is at 80. Next resistance level is 85.
What to do?
I like buying dips toward the 80 handle, targeting a move toward the 85 level.
Gold is testing a support level going back to April. It is also the 50% retracement of the 2016 rally.
The question I wonder is this a retracement in a bull market or will we see sub 100 again?
What to do?
Unless you are short, the R/R favors the long side, IMO. I am looking to buy b/w here and 112, stopping out under 110. I will update this...