Captain_Walker

Captain_Walker

What's happening here? 1 - There is a sharp ATR spike for the down side. 2 - Price has made a struggling rebellion (so far). At each sharp spike of the ATR price has travelled south. That doesn't mean price is bound to do the same again. However the latest spike down is even sharper than the previous two. What this means is that there is a 51% chance of...

06:00

Captain_Walker

The short answer is 'I don't know'. What I know is what everybody can see that Gold has broken out. I look into some of the price action - and it gets wilder as we move deeper up in the trend. There are no predictions in this chart. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice....

09:21

Captain_Walker

In this video, I compare the movements of the DJI with the DAX. There are no predictions here. What I am saying, is to get ready. Price can move in any direction but there is a 4H ATR trendline indicating that the trend strength is for the south. As I cannot predict the future, this scenario is only relevant up to the time of posting. The markets can do as...

Captain_Walker

The DJI has been reinflated from after the COVID crash, by 'cheap' money coming out of reckless monetary and fiscal policy. The value of the market has been over-inflated by some 15 times its true value. Fundamentals are almost never seen in charts like these - which only show 'price' (not value). A man-made 'virus' called war, looms. Not to mention - which...

Captain_Walker

The Aussies are in trouble but they may not know it as yet. Caution : this is not a prediction that the AUS200 is about to crash, or will crash. All observations and comment are based on this snapshot in time. Next week this analysis may be irrelevant if the picture changes dramatically. Features on the chart: 1 - A clear sign of rebellion after panic...

11:50

Captain_Walker

On balance I am not optimistic. I think this market will struggle to close the gap. FB lost $230 billion in one day. The CEO lost $30 billion. I can't even begin to think what that feels like. In the video I compare the current gap of some 30% with a similar gap of ~20% back in 2018. This video is for deep thought. There are no predictions here....

Captain_Walker

Everybody knows that oil is heading to the moon. In recent days, I've heard numerous estimates like $150. However, I think those estimates may be based on panic. Contrarians dare to be wrong, in the face of crowd sentiment - obviously. Everybody can see the same thing on the chart - a well formed rising broadening wedge in a bull market. Expand the chart a...

Captain_Walker Updated 

This is a theory of curves setup (TOCS) ; looking at the price action of the AUS200. In TOCS, thee is usually a 55% chance of movement in the leading half of the curve (based on personal experience). Better than 50% is good in finding entry points for trend following positions. Zoom into the chart if text overlaps candles. The AUS200 has been curving up...

05:36

Captain_Walker

In this video I pay attention to 2H and 4H time frames, updating my previous video. I also compare momentum in the 2020 crash with the current picture. In particular I look compare squeeze momentum and RSI patterns in both periods. There is always 'hope'. But hope doesn't rule against market crashes. This is one hypothesis - not a prediction. Disclaimer:...

Captain_Walker

This is a death cross on the 4H time frame. It may not show on many higher time frames. Some traders wait to see the death cross on the 1D time frame. By the time that develops, the market is ready to rebound. I always stay 'under the hood' of the daily time frame, cuz that's where the action begins. The 4H is my fav time frame to get an idea of what's...

04:37

Captain_Walker Updated 

Of course there are many ways to take chunks out of the markets. Hundreds of methodologies are out there. And the markets are experts at taking chunks out of you and your account. In the 4.5 min video I briefly show two types of 'attacks' on the market: 1 - Strategic 2 - Tactical . Strategic In the strategic approach (which could be any methodology), you...

09:27

Captain_Walker

Well, there is trouble in the markets for sure. Last week saw a meltdown of about 8% from one peak, on the DJI. My crystal ball broke a long time ago, and I'm not getting a new one from Ebay. 😂 The video outlines how vigilance on the 2H timeframe paid off for anyone who wanted to short this market. So - what about next week (beginning Mon 24th Jan)? No...

03:42

Captain_Walker Updated 

In this video I look back to early 2020, to see how the 40% collapse in the DJI happened. Am I preparing for a collapse or correction? Yes I am. Preparing does not mean I am predicting. What is see looking back is, that a 2 hour ATR trend south had developed. It is the best fit. I had tried 1H trend but that did not fit well enough, where price would stay...

03:11

Captain_Walker

In this short video - 3 minutes - I show how small time frames can be useful if following a trend to best completion. Trend following - the true kind - can deliver far more - than any other system of trading. It depends on your knowledge and skill of course. The video shows 'you' could have extracted close to 600 points in one go. Of course you have to be...

07:52

Captain_Walker Updated 

It looks like a head and shoulders to me on the 4H time frame, but always debatable. Sentiment changed on this index many days ago, as seen in the 4H ATR line (on this time frame only). This short setup is for true trend followers (not trend continuation). That means it is much higher risk to much higher reward ratios. There are stop losses in trend...

Captain_Walker Updated 

It's a killzone. It doesn't mean you're going to make tons of money. In fact you have a better chance of losing money. Unfortunately - I tend to talk more about losses, cuz it's the most important thing in trading to control. Sorry! Assess your ATR, on this time frame. Know your acceptable loss. Control the loss if shorting in the killzone. Prepare to lose!...

Captain_Walker

The chart shows cumulative cases in USA, GB and Germany. Some don't like cumulative data. Case rates per day seem to matter more. But in terms of understanding whether the war on COVID is being won, I say cumulative data is where the focus needs to be. Why? Case rates per day or per week are the 'noise'. That rate will pick up fluctuations. Some people may...

Captain_Walker

There is a killzone in this. What this means is that it's an optimal zone to take a controlled loss. Errrh.. that's called a 'stop loss'. That means there are losses involved. Shorting markets is well known to be more dangerous than going long in markets. This is not advice to short. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities...