CassidyChalhoub

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Markets Allocation
100 % indices
Top Mentioned Symbols
FRED/INDPRO 50% | 2 FRED/UNRATE 25% | 1 ISM/MAN_PMI 25% | 1
CassidyChalhoub CassidyChalhoub FRED/UNRATE, M,
FRED/UNRATE: UNEMPLOYMENT VS ROC INDUSTRIALS VS ISM W/ NBER INDICATORS
27 0 1
FRED/UNRATE, M
UNEMPLOYMENT VS ROC INDUSTRIALS VS ISM W/ NBER INDICATORS

Historically, a cross over 5.5% unemployment, negative MoM % US Industrial Production, and the cross over of a 49.8 PMI renders a 97.1% probability of recession

CassidyChalhoub CassidyChalhoub FRED/INDPRO, D, Short ,
FRED/INDPRO: US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION W/ NBER RECESSION INDICATORS
15 0 2
FRED/INDPRO, D Short
US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION W/ NBER RECESSION INDICATORS

Each time the US Industrial Production % drops below zero, the United States has entered a recession. A downward trend in US industrial production, currently, may result in a recessive state.

CassidyChalhoub CassidyChalhoub FRED/INDPRO, D,
FRED/INDPRO: US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION % CHANGE W/ NBER RECESSION INDICATORS
14 1 1
FRED/INDPRO, D
US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION % CHANGE W/ NBER RECESSION INDICATORS

Each time the US Industrial Production % drops below zero, the United States has entered a recession. A downward trend in US industrial production, currently, may result in a recessive state.

CassidyChalhoub CassidyChalhoub ISM/MAN_PMI, D,
ISM/MAN_PMI: ISM as an Economic Indicator
50 0 3
ISM/MAN_PMI, D
ISM as an Economic Indicator

The ISM index and unemployment growth rates show negative correlation while ISM shows positive with monthly Shiller P/E10 Ratios across S&P 500. Why would price multiples on equities rise if manufacturing doesn't rise, if GDP growth doesn't rise? Deviation of ISM and P/E10 trendline signals point in credit cycle and overvalued equity.

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