This pitchfork formation in place since July has been the key support/resistance for btc. Back at the end of August as we finally saw a break of the key trend line(pink) & a break through the 100DMA, we'd have expected a more persistent follow through, but the median line came in as strong support and that entire move was reversed swiftly.
And now we're back to...
Following a receding threat of no deal brexit, the £ has had back to back +1% weeks & has finally broken through the key 60 RSI level for the first time since May (In downtrends 60 RSI is the key resistance in momentum).
After breaking 1 key median line last week, the pound followed through, breaking a longer-term median line & the January flash crash low.
With the pound rightly positioning itself for a potential no deal brexit thanks to the unstable "leadership" of Boris Johnson, data comes into focus this week. How much will the £ react?
Services PMI Monday, followed by big releases on friday including GDP numbers & various production numbers.
From a technical level, the dip last week hit a key level (50% slope...
After the already priced in 25bps cut from the fed on Wednesday followed by hawkish commentary from Jerome Powell (One and done sentiment for cuts) the dxy pushed to a 2 year high and right into a key long-term technical level.
However, following that decision, the US had some weak ISM manufacturing data on Thursday & potentially a rise in tariffs on China...
Following the reversal off the 200 week moving average & low slope of pitchfork, another pitchfork formation looks promising.
Right now caught between the median line, top slope & 100DMA.
US CPI data tomorrow will be significant news release, with a lower than expected number likely to put a 50bps cut back on the menu
Following an early week re-test of the key support (61.8% retrace and pitchfork slope), the euro rallied higher off the back of the FOMC rate decision through both the 200 Week and 200 Day moving averages.
Following the predictable dovish fed policy stance, and shift in the dotplot, the $ plunged through most of its key support structures:
Simple trend line (purple dotted)
Median line in pitchfork
61.8% slope in long-term pitchfork
The 200 Week moving average is the last bastion of hope for the dxy.
With the upcoming FOMC rate decision, lets take a look back at previous decisions:
September 2018, spike in both directions, before basically unchanged on the hour. Moved higher through the end of week
November 2018, bullish move higher, through to end of week
December 2018, bullish...
Key resistance to break,
38.2% retrace off ATH
78.6% retrace off feb -> dec decline
January 2018 lows
May 2018 Highs
25% slope in long-term pitchfork (blue dashed line)
RSI looking dodgy up here. Break through and not much key resistance until the 50% at $11400
It's quite clear visually that when you look at the December peak in 2013 and subsequent bear market into 2015, it looks remarkably similar to what has been happening since December 2017.
So how about the recovery?
If we put Fibonacci retracements on both we can see them line up well with various lows/highs (resistance). So, after similarly breaking the Yearly...
A very strong week off the key support levels, has pushed the EURUSD through trend line resistance. We've seen sharp climbs and reversals throughout 2019 so far, and we'll stay with that focus until the key levels in the red box are cleared.
200 Week and 200 Day moving averages
61.8% fib slope (dark blue) of decade long pitchfork
75% slope (light blue) of year...
Slide to the bottom of this range for $, sitting at the 100% extension off the double top, and previous lows made in May. 100DMA is just below, alongside the trend line. That would be the key target to break to build up momentum on a potential top being in place.
After briefly hitting $9k & subsequently reversing sharply, bitcoin could find support on the 100% extension (ABC correction with A=C). Along with this extension is another support level (FEB 2018 reversal close).
The key support is lower though, around $7400. If that breaks expect a dip below $7k.