Bitcoin has a very violent reaction to the 10,000 price level
It has traded through that price 9 times on a monthly basis.
The average move of the monthly candle is 4600 points, currently we have moved 1,000 points +/-
That leaves a range of 3600 points, higher or lower, to be average
BTC has done 10k in one month going from 10-20k back in 2017
I spend two...
Daily Market regime
Selloffs are quick
and short lived
Use as buying opp
The best shorts get
stopped out quickly
Longs are slow and
Also known as the market
regime that pisses off
the bears more than
Always In Long Market
“This is the longest bull market in history!”
That’s just not the case
Let’s take a walk back in time….
Link to Blog Post
This chart represents Present Day $SPX all the way back to 1872
This only represents about 150 years of US Markets history
From a headline perspective the longest bull market in history sounds tempting to use
There are some agreed upon...
Oil testing bottom of channel - buy
SPY testing top of channel - sell
DXY pushing breakout higher - buy
Yuan taking a break - neutral
10 Year Notes - buy
BTC - neutral (wait for close above the high of 9 bar)
Gold - almost ready to take a break, not quite done yet.
Eurodollar - buy
Expand each chart to view notes on each market.
EURCAD has put in a TD Setup Perfection Buy and triggered an entry with a buy stop at 1.50530
Stop is a 12 hour bar close below 1.46960
With MACD turning up here and the Demark Setup, this one has a lot of potential.
All /CAD crosses are firing off these setups as well, I had my pick of which to chose and I went with EURCAD as I have the strongest win rate in...
I've written a bit about the bottoming process in assets, specifically how Bitcoin is bottoming and what that should look like over time. 2018 has been a dramatically different environment for the crypto space than 2017 was, obviously. There was manic euphoria and when those types of parabolic moves exist, the eventual hangover is long and drawn out with false...
GBPJPY continues the downward move after breaking below the trendline support that held up twice before, the next test looks to be the previous swing lows
Today we've bounced off the first level at 143.769 so far getting as low as 143.811 (pretty darn close). Notice that both of these previous swing lows brought multiday rally's so the risk at...
New week, updated the dashboard.
Swapped out Commodities and Emerging Markets for Dow Futures and Eurodollar futures.
Bonds and Notes looking bullish here, the biggest surprise to everything and everyone would be a bond price rally (rates dropping). Everyone is expecting rate hikes, like nearly 100%
Will generate a trade idea this week for bonds or notes....
Going Long ETHUSD -2.44% -2.82% with a Demark Setup Buy Perfection signaled on the 12 hour chart and a move above the high of the 9 bar at 415.89
-Long at 415.89 or better (got filled Saturday morning at 405.96)
-Stop with a *12 hour bar close* below 399.13 (the 12 hour candle must close below this level to signal liquidation, merely going below does not stop...
Going Long ETHUSD -2.82% with a Demark Setup Buy Perfection signaled on the 12 hour chart and a move above the high of the 9 bar at 415.89
-Long at 415.89 or better (1st entry)
-Stop with a *12 hour bar close* below 399.13
Will look to add to this position if it moves in our direction.
On 7/11 GBPJPY generated a Demark setup sell perfection. A Sell Stop order was placed at 146.805 and was filled a week later on 7/19 with an initial stop at 149.4610.
This week we swung back to our entry price and a bit higher before turning lower on Thursday and Friday.
With the swing high this week and putting in new lows, we dropped our stop from -260 pips...
ETHBTC has generated a Demark Setup Perfection Buy signal on the 3 day chart.
The 3 day bar will end 8/5 (Sunday) with the confirmation of the buy signal.
My trading plan is to take the high swing of the #9 bar and place a buy stop (if below) or a limit buy (if above that level when this bar closes).
With a stop on a 3 day bar *close* below the risk level stop...
So far TD Setup Perfection Long position signalad a buy and is holding up with some respectable gains.
Stop Daily close below 65.75
MACD turning higher but still hasn't crossed up, but if we have a higher close on Sunday Globex session that *could* bring Monday morning buy orders.
On the weekly chart, we have a really nice upward trending channel...
BTCUSD has held up well through this bottoming process.
Took the short trade this week and have been lightening that position, there is a potential to go lower to try the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 6590 but for me, I've taken a nice 700 point chunk of meat out of this move and want to lighten my risk here.
We dropped hard Saturday morning (US West Coast) to hit...
My outlook for what's happening right now and where things will likely turn or move to.
30 Yr Bonds
Bloomberg Commodities Index
Seasonally August and September SPX underperforms while global markets outperform, this could be a good counter trend move into September lows as the US positions itself to vacuum up as much global assets...
SPY and QQQ have generated Demark Setup Perfection Sell signals on the daily charts. After a bit of a capitulative blow off higher we then turned down for three consecutive days as part of Wave 1 of the 5 waves down.
We've since bounced and retraced 50% of the move (as of this writing) and can get up to 61.8% level before turning lower.
Coincidentally we are...
Last week 7/24 BTCUSD generated a Demark 9 Setup Perfection Sell Signal.
The entry was triggered via a Sell Stop below the low of the 9 bar at 7690 with an initial stop at 9323
This aligned with hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the May highs to June lows, as both of these lined up it gives a little more confidence in the short side playing...