ChristopherCarrollSmith

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Defensives have been outperforming the S&P 500 since March. If you believe the outperformance will continue, then now might be the time to buy, as they are approaching the support line. I'm particularly watching utilities. In addition to being a classic defensive sector, utilities also have "growth" potential. They had a period of strong outperformance a...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

I've made a stupid amount of money in this thing since it started; so much so that it's making me question why I waste my time doing fundamental analysis on stocks, lol. Ethereum Max is an ERC-20 (Ethereum-based) token that trades primarily on Uniswap and Sushiswap. (It's also tradeable on Alt5 and HotBit.) It's only nine days old, but as you can see, it's gone...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

ETH has been getting absolutely crushed this week, both in dollar terms and in Bitcoin terms. As you can see, ETHUSD is now testing whether it can hold the 200 EMA, which in my experience is a really key support level. If ETHUSD can't hold this level, then the next stop is about 1440, with additional supports at 1115 and 730. The Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio is also...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

The conventional wisdom out there among traders is that by the time you read a news headline, the algorithms have already priced it in. That's really not true, especially in cases where the news goes against strong upward momentum. The algorithms aren't going to place big bets against momentum. This is a case where you, as a human trader, have an edge over...

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Introduction Financial Twitter is buzzing about an article on the "Crypto Anonymous" blog which alleges that Bitcoin's recent 4x price increase is part of an "exit scam" by the folks at Tether, Ltd. (An "exit scam" is when a company that knows it's about to go bust quickly extracts as much money from its customers as it can.) Here's a link to the Crypto...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Introduction While I personally am a fan of central government management of monetary policy because it gives us great tools for managing crime and recessions, I'm not opposed to trying decentralization and seeing where it takes us. Decentralization helps fight the concentration of power and wealth, and it's a good old democratic tradition here in the United...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

There's some chatter in both the US and Europe about subsidizing chip manufacturing to help deal with the semiconductor shortage. That has sent chip stocks surging today, including Intel. I like Intel a lot, because it's quite reasonably valued for a chip company and has lots of plans for expanding its manufacturing capacity, which means it's poised to be a big...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Nasdaq's sharp drop is creating a few buying opportunities in tech, but I think you have to be choosy. One that I like is Progress Software, which is sitting at 200 EMA support and near trend line support, with a forward P/E of 12 and a 1.8% dividend yield. Progress is fairly innovative, with 3 patents per year per billion dollars of market cap, and it's a growing...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

The Nasdaq is looking like it may test its support line soon. The index has been responding very negatively to any whiff of rising interest rates (falling prices) on bonds. Bond rates fell (and prices rose) for five weeks straight, but then they hit the 200-day EMA like a brick wall, broke their trend, and have been trading sideways the last two weeks. This week...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Introducing the Buffett Indicator One aspect of the recent rotation from growth stocks to value stocks is that investors have been rotating into undervalued markets that have suffered ten-year downtrends. The "Buffett Indicator" provides a way of comparing country-wise stock market valuations. The indicator divides total market cap (TMC) by GDP plus Total Assets...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

IBM dipped after its earnings report Friday and now sits at an important support level. While I'd love for it to dip to $110 or even $100 so I could place a larger buy order there, I have my doubts that it will dip that far. Dips have been hard to come by in this bull market. And while IBM had a disappointing quarter, executives forecasted that it will be back on...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

As the market has rotated from overpriced large-cap tech stocks to underpriced small-cap value stocks, three of the best-performing metrics have been dividend yield, share buybacks, and inexpensive free cash flow. $COWZ is a mid-cap fund that tracks stocks with high free cash flow yields, and its performance has been accordingly stellar. Even after its huge recent...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Credit to Lyn Alden on Twitter for the idea for this chart. As she quipped when she posted a similar chart, inflation is low... as long as you don't buy food, or a house, or commodities. CPI inflation has been unusually low for the last decade From 2010 to 2019, CPI (the Consumer Price Index, a popular measure of inflation) averaged 1.73%. That's a...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Watch for bond breakdown as a Nasdaq sell signal Early this year, the Nasdaq had its weakest run in a long time as interest rates rose (and prices fell) on the 10-year US bond. (Note that bond rates and bond prices move in opposite directions.) Both tech and 10-year bonds have rallied a bit since March, but amid heightened inflation expectations this week, I've...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

BTG: A Mid-cap Miner with Value and Improving Sentiment B2Gold Corp has a P/E of 8, and P/FCF of 8.5, and a dividend yield of 3.34%. That's solid value for money. S&P Global gives it about 70/100 for fundamentals, and analyst ratings on the stock have recently grown more bullish after it made a bullish move across a downward-sloping resistance line. It's frankly...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

VIAC is retesting the bottom of its Archegos Capital-related plunge a couple weeks ago. If this support holds, we should see a bounce. I've not extensively analyzed the fundamentals on this stock, but just eyeballing it, it looks fairly valued to me. Just in it for a quick swing trade, I think.

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

What is a Whale, and Why is Archegos Capital One? Archegos Capital is what's called a "whale," meaning it's a big enough hedge fund that it can drive prices higher all by itself. Since a lot of traders buy "momentum" stocks, whales can make money by manipulating prices higher and then selling to "dumb money" that buys momentum stocks without regard to...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

I picked up some Lockheed Martin today, because both value and sentiment on the stock are looking too good to resist. Value I estimate Lockheed's forward P/E at about 12.5, which is really cheap for a megacap. Forward P/S is 1.5, and forward dividend yield is over 3%. I estimate Lockheed's PEG ratio at about 2, with the annual earnings growth rate sitting near...