Possible H&S formation, though not at a top of recent prices.
NZD data coming out in an hour.
News data seems to point bearish on NZD, regardless of today's GDT announcement and recent PM comments on 'feel good' economy in NZ.
Set up for USD's FOMC news on Thursday. If this fails, probably will not do anything more.
Look for CANDLE PIN for confirmation, or not...
Going LONG for the following reasons:
1) MACD cross
2) RSI signaled LONG
3) Waiting for CCI to cross LONG
4) Bouncing off of last month's resistance
5) Coming off of a generally placed bullish trend (the pitchfork)
6) Danske Bank went LONG from their last night's posting at 174.15, looking for 179.20, with STOP at 173.30.
Alternatively, wait to go LONG on
Pending LONG for the following reasons:
1) RSI needs to cross above 40
2) CCI needs to cross above general bullish trend
3) MACD signal cross
4) Very ST double bottom (A&B) and/or slight divergence
5) I generally follow DanskeBank, they were long at 171.1, aiming for 174,85, with stop at 172.4
6) I recently started following ScotiaBank's weekly COT, they showed...
Waiting for a Short for the following reasons:
1) MACD Divergence (waiting for a Zero crossing)
2) CCI and RSI tandem signaled short (waiting for RSI to cross the Bullish trend line)
Will go short pending a 0130PST GBP announcement.
Aiming for the 200MA and the 400MA, as well as the trend supports.
Going from last idea, took TP off of drop, took a quick SHORT, now LONG with the following (albeit weak) reasons:
1) Weak RSI/CCI tandem signal LONG. They normally should fire off together.
2) Weak MACD cross. Both signal and MACD are flat showing lack of conviction
3) GBP manufacturing production data and USD JOLTS - Speculation hype up.
Continuing with last idea, TP off of failed attempt to get beyond 400MA. Going LONG for that reason, RSI crossing 40, and MACD cross. Confirm LONG position with RSI crossing above generally placed bearish line (created by SHORT position last Friday), as well as MACD signal cross of zero. Danske TP at 171.9 off of position of 171.8. They indicated they would...
As GBPJPY seems to follow USD data, it took a nice rise with NFP, then nose dived when people started delving into the details. Workforce participation rate is on a steady decline, which makes the unemployment rate seem skewed. TP off of prior idea's LONG and went SHORT for the following reasons (beyond the issue of workforce participation in the US):
HOLDING LONG, continuing with last idea's reasons, this time showing LT consolidating triangle and ST consolidating triangle (as the last dip did not go to the LT triangle bottom).
1) 4/2 high of 173.1 (.5 of the distance from the last rise)
2) 3/7 high of 173.5 (.618 of the distance from the last rise)
Interesting they happened at around the start...
From last idea, LONG TP SL taken out on price dip due to consolidating before BOJ press conference. Going LONG again for the following reasons:
1) CCI/RSI tandem strong signal LONG
2) Hitting off of the 100 and 200 MAs again
3) Revving up for USD data announcements (prepare for volatility)
4) Second attempt at breaking the LT consolidating triangle
5) We may...
Here's the issues to take a SHORT:
1) Double top, both on 15M and 1H
2) CCI signaled SHORT, MACD cross signaled SHORT
3) GBP 1st GDP did not hit expected.
4) No more news for GBP this week, which could indicate a breather session.
5) Everyone is looking for a SHORT, especially after the steep LONG climb (51 degrees!) A guest commentary on DailyFX, which is...
Adding to last idea, where we may have seen this pattern before on 2014/04/15 @ 2100 PST. Back then it was 200 and 400 MAs. This time, last night GBPJPY hit off of 400MA, this morning hitting off of 200 and 100 MAs.
Aiming for 173 and beyond. TP stop placed under ST MAs, waiting for that GBP 1st GDP to come out tonight.
Going off of last idea, TP off of SHORT position for failure to bust 4H MA and went LONG when H&S didn't materialize passing rising Orange dotted line. For some odd correlation, the GBP spiked with the whole Pfizer eyeing AstraZeneca for $100B. Keep LONG for the following reasons:
1) Busted 1H and 2H MAs.
2) Great USD housing data this morning.
3) Waiting for...
Still HOLDING SHORT for all the reasons posted last idea, adding the look of a H&S formation.
Needs to break 400MA, which is about where a long standing support line has been forming. Breaking the 200MA will cause more validity to the CCI/RSI tandem signal.
Not much more to add over last few postings.
It's "not-wanting-to-do-anything" Friday, where I try not to open up new positions. I will HOLD SHORT and TIGHTEN TP for the following reasons:
1) Silliness that is Putin and the fact that signing an int'l accord means nothing for him. (still faulting some private corporation in Germany for training the Russian troops)(Congrats to the Baltic states for...
Tightening SHORT TP stop for the following reasons:
1) It seems to be dogging between the MAs.
2) The CCI/RSI tandem signal LONG is weak, but it's there.
3) Have a double bottom. The ST bearish Gartley (contain within yesterday PST timeframe) failed to bust the LT MAs and rising trend line.
4) Still holding SHORT because Danske, with their public disclosure last...
That was a small waiting period from the last idea (I stretched out my SL, now placed it at a TP stop). The SHORT happened around the GBP news that the net public sector borrowing is NOT as high as expected, meaning that the gov't stepped in a bit. Combine that with the poor USD new housing and we got the LT consolidating triangle.
Continue to HOLD SHORT for...
Danske got this one: they wanted 172.5, they got it. TP off the last idea, now going SHORT for the following reasons:
1) No GBP announcements until Tuesday evening PST, and on the vague concept of allowing currency to breathe
2) Weak collaboration signal on CCI and RSI. Typically I would like them to fire at the same time.
3) According to online news, CFTC...
Going off of yesterday's idea LONG, continue to HOLD LONG for the following reasons (I normally look at the 1H, but expanded out to 2H because of the pending GBP holiday - PST there is no holiday =P):
1) No GBP and JPY news until Sunday.
2) USD unemployment claims (which every week, outside of the first week of Apr., seems to be doing well)
3) Bank Holiday Friday...