Gold had a sharp wave iv correction which we expected according to the Elliott rule of alternation. The TD idea worked well as price is gradually coming back to the 1800 level.
The inflation narrative continues to drive Gold:
German price expectations climbed to 8-1/2 year highs as concerns grow that the European Central Bank will keep monetary policy on a...
SNAP dropped 25% after yesterday’s close and the question is if this shock will now spread across the tech sector.
AAPL is in a potential reversal zone, approaching the 61.8% retracement, as well as the 1.618 extension of wave a (or i), in green.
Bearish options flow was prevalent across major tech names yesterday.
The bigger picture:
Bearish - The (a)(b)(c)...
Bitcoin went straight to a new ATH, which is right at the 1.618 extension of wave (i). We can now count a complete 5-wave move to the upside. It is possible that the entire wave since 21 SEP is therefore complete, and we can expect a more substantial correction after precisely one month of rallying.
Price also broke out of the trend channel to the downside.
Bitcoin grinds higher and approaches the 63550 Gann level. The theta decay strategy continues to work well as volatility contracts and we see more chop and less volatile moves to the upside.
The BITO Bitcoin ETF started trading today with a typical first-day trading pattern. So far it has neither given a boost to BTC, nor triggered a sell-the-news, but both is...
Nasdaq swiftly moves upwards as expectations for earnings are high. Price approaches the .786 retracement of the previous wave.
- The current wave can be wave iii (in green), followed by a wave iv consolidation and further upside.
- Or it could be a wave c (in green) and the bullish move gets exhausted here. In that case possible resistance...
Ethereum keeps pushing higher along with BTC. We are looking for Elliott wave (v), in blue, to complete.
Potential resistance levels are:
- 4063, wave (i) and (v) equality
- 4218 Gann level
- 4374, 1.382 extension of (i)
- 4536, 1.618 extension of (i)
If BTC stalls and ranges, ETH is usually in a good position to climb as BTC dominance decreases.
On the daily...
Gold expanded to the upside as expected. The consolidation took 10 days, which is unusual for wave ii (in green). According to the rule of alternation, we therefore have to expect a sharper wave iv correction.
Price appears to complete wave iii (in green). The red S/R diagonal may indicate where price could stall. This level is also at the median between two Gann...
Square approaches a resistance zone at the 50-60% retracement level (blue box). We can count an abc pattern to the upside, suggesting that the downward trend continues if sellers step in here.
However, we need to be aware of correlations:
- The exceptional strength in Bitcoin (possibly approaching a top)
- A bullish descending broadening wedge in QQQ
- Signs of...
We can recognise a descending broadening wedge in Alphabet, usually a bullish pattern.
The problem is that the previous wave occurred in an abc pattern (green wave (b)), so that we would expect a wave (c) to the downside.
The current blue box is the 50-60% retracement zone of the previous wave. The 20 D MA is located here as well. If sellers step in here, we can...
The red diagonal S/R trend line can give us an indication about potential resistance, as we are still looking for wave (v) to complete.
Price reacted at the .618 extension of wave (i). Should Bitcoin grind higher, we can therefore look for resistance along the Fib extensions:
- 58539, the .786 Fib
- 61495, wave (i) and (v) equality
- 63550 Gann level
Nasdaq arrives at the 50-60% retracement zone of the previous wave, where buyers may step in (blue box).
Major stocks, like AAPL, FB, SQ, AMAZ, are due for a corrective move, so that we may see a reaction today, even if the general bias remains bearish.
Price went below the 200D MA (in red), a sign that this important MA is not being respected. In QQQ we see...
Bitcoin is grinding higher, so I am taking a closer look at the ‘chop’ today.
Price appears to unfold in a series of ABC waves, so that an ending diagonal seems plausible (ABCDE pattern in green).
We can interpret that wave (iii) finished at Gann level 55825 and wave (v) is under way, currently in wave d of (v). If correct, a wave e to the upside is still due,...
Facebook continues to unfold in 5 waves to the downside (green count).
We are looking for wave v to complete at Gann level 320 or 311.
Gann level 320 is 7 levels from the ATH, which corresponds to a 315 degree rotation on the square of 9. Level 311 would correspond to a 360 degree rotation.
Potential drivers of volatility are Mars in trine with natal Venus on...
Despite Bitcoin strength and an Analyst upgrade, Square stalled and got rejected precisely at 251 Gann level, slightly above the 50-60% retracement zone.
Our idea then was to build short exposure, as we can count a complete wave (b), expecting further downside.
Price is back at the volume node low today. Should price turn and make a higher high, the count needs...
BTC got rejected quite precisely at the 55828 Gann level. This corresponds to the 2.382 Fib extension of wave (i).
If price breaks down and out of the channel, we may expect choppy action & further contraction of volatility.
The Elliott count suggests a wave (iv) is due. Should price rally higher, the entire count needs to be revised.
It would be quite unusual...
QQQ/NDX is currently at the 50-60% retracement level, along with AAPL, GOOG, and SQ. Sellers usually try to step in this zone.
Gann level 15010 provided resistance with precision almost to the dollar.
I can’t help but interpret the count as a series of abc waves (in green). The good news is that this makes the entire structure corrective. The bad news is that,...
Ethereum is known for double top formations, and price is at the same level as the top of 16 SEP.
The structure may be an ending diagonal with an ABCDE count (in red). Wave E is often truncated (the placement of wave E in the chart does not indicate that wave E will reach that level).
The Gann level at 3720 hints at another potential resistance.
We can observe...
Alphabet, as expected, bounced off the 20 week MA (in red), and we closed longs at Gann level 2651. But the count hints at more downside in the mid-term.
Since the ATH, price declined in ABC patterns, so that we can assume a WXY or a complex ABC is unfolding.
If correct, sellers may step in at the 20D MA again. A possible area is the blue box (.618 to .786...