It is interesting to note that there is a current clear divergence between the SPX and the ISM Manufacturing Index, that started back in January 2019 when the Fed stopped raising rates. The SPX has shot higher, while the ISM has continued to drop crossing below 50 and therefore indicating a contraction. In the past this drop below 50 has lead to a stock market...
Looking at how the Soybean Futures have reacted very negatively since the signing of the Phase One China deal on the 15th of January, it doesn't seem that there is much expectation that this deal will drive any meaningful increase in purchases. It will be interesting to see how they react as we enter a traditionally bullish seasonal period at the end of the month.
The SPY finally broke above its long standing 15min downtrend line near the close today. Maybe signaling a turnaround, but let's see if it can hold onto the breakout overnight and into tomorrow. The low yesterday was perfect symmetry of the previous decline from the top of channel.
