Some btc hopium charting here, following 2018 bottom analog. Timing aligns with fomc September meeting. Thesis based on time to retake >50% of the capitulation low range.
Some are seeing bearish divergences on the high time frame charts, which is concerning.
I don't really think the 2017 top is comparable to the present day. Different market participants, macro environment, and further along on adoption S curve.
If I had to guess, this is where we're at currently in the "cycle", November 12th with a 150% move yet in store....
Stayed in the descending wedge longer than anticipated. Local low established at 6425, near resistance now, looking for 8862 as the first target on the break of the 1/1. Likely hard resistance at the .382 fib (from Dec 2018 low) and white .5 fib (from 2012 low). Current monthly vwap leading the prior month ( subject to change before close of current month ).
Expecting S/R to hold around the .382 fib with price movement on 18 November dictated by orange gann 1/1. A move to the orange .5 fib area ~$11,393 late 2019 or early 2020.
Rejection of the 1/1 should put price on track for more consolidation in the ~$9,400-8,400 range.
Nearing a 3day bullish crossover on the BP&SP indicator, and momentum is moving to the upside. Currently the price is at resistance, needing a solid close above 0.327
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Seeing a, yet to be confirmed, 3Day bearish crossover on the BP&SP indicator, and nearly negative momentum for BTC dominance. Possible bull case for alts if dominance lingers here or keeps decreasing. Expecting a turn in BTC price as previously mentioned on or around the date of OCT 27, according to the descending triangle...
Bulkowski research: best performance in upper 1/3 of yearly high for upward breakout. Best performance in lower 1/3 of yearly range for breakdown of the descending triangle. Line in the sand 7 SEP for direction.
Using the 12 month VWAP as a baseline, the average pullback in the BTC price run-up of 2016-2017 was ~34%. The most current pullback satisfies this condition. Although semi-anecdotal it could indicate that more consolidation is ahead before another impulse up.
Also judging by the 2017 run, the first several impulses averaged +116%. The current impulse registered...
As seen in the past two scenarios when the prior 3 (1 month vwap averages) are successively making higher and tighter highs this can be interpreted as consolidation. 31 August will mark the end of this current consolidation cycle, and so far the 1 mo vwaps are lining up very bullish. September continues to be pivotal and potentially the beginning of the next leg up.
Seeing this symmetrical triangle play out in USDARS with the eventual blow-off top and new price discovery, is very similar to the current situation with BTCUSD. The following breakout of the symmetrical triangle could be more or less compressed on the time scale versus USDARS.
Watching this closely for the squeeze release and momentum to break positive or negative. Current squeeze on the BBW has only been this deep on twice in the past 12 months.
The buying pressure was broadcast well in advance as noted above with the buy pressure crossing over the sell pressure. For additional confirmation the DI crossed above a trend line of resistance well prior to this volatile move upwards. At the current level we are level with the linear regression trend line and could see some consolidation.
The Buy and Sell...
