CucabarraTrading

CucabarraTrading

I expect a bullish movement from today (05-Apr-2023) till 21-Apr-2023.

CucabarraTrading

Is the S&P 500 going to see new lows in the next three months?

CucabarraTrading

Watch out from July on ...this is a comparison between the current equity market and the 2008 market crash.

CucabarraTrading

In this weekly analysis, I noticed a similarity in the market correction of the 2nd and 3rd week of May 2021 to the current environment. As we can see from the chart, in May, the market first dropped below the support level of an ascending channel which then transformed itself into a resistance level. In the following weeks the index traded in the ascending...

CucabarraTrading

Yesterday (Monday 23 Aug), the market quickly recovered the last week correction and is trying to test the $4500 level. The S&P 500 E-mini Futures tested the $4492 level around 08:00 AM (London Time, GMT+1). The previous correction lasted about 5 days and it took about 5 days to recover. This correction, as well as the recovery, lasted both 2 days. After the...

CucabarraTrading

Last week's economic data suggested a strong employment rate and positive expectations for the next month. The quick decline in metals price and oil price shifted inventors' capital back to equity sustaining quite well the S&P500 during the start of the week. The delta variant and the progressive restrictions caused by it in China don't seem to scare US markets....

CucabarraTrading

During the last 10 months the correlation of surprises for ADP Nonfarm employment change and Nonfarm payrolls is positive (58%). This means that if we saw a negative ADP nonfarm employment change on Wednesday, we should see a negative nonfarm payroll today. This is however not certain. In fact, the February ADP came out with a -34% negative surprise while the NFP...

CucabarraTrading

SPX recovered quickly from last week’s flash correction on Monday. After such quick recoveries the market tends to accumulate in a slightly positive territory. The tension in the Asian market forces US capitals to move back to the US market. This movement will reinforce the USD currency and therefore weight a bit on the equity. The correlation between...

CucabarraTrading

In the last 3 months there have been 3 major up trends and corrections. We currently are in the 4th uptrend and a correction might develop in the next 1-2 weeks. The historical corrections show that the market corrects about 40-60% of the previous uptrend in a quite short period of time. In particular it takes a time between 10% and 50% of the uptrend time to...

CucabarraTrading

Notice the repetitive pattern on SPY (1 day correction followed by 2 days of strong recovery and a period of consolidation with low volatility. We are in a really low volatility environment. Options prices are low but there are still nice opportunities to collect premium around 16-delta strikes. Implied Volatility: 11.41% Historical Volatility: 9.48% IV...

CucabarraTrading

Moderate bullish expectation on the SPY till the end of the week. Expected 1sd deviation range (based on options): $421 - $430 range.