DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Bearish Nenstar harmonic, cousin to shark, cypher, bat/butterfly patterns; a Gartley variant. Typically the selloff from pattern completion at D is a .50 retracement of the CD leg up. In this case, price would be expected to drop ~150 pips to close the gap at 2864. Nenstar and Cypher patterns are variants of Sharks. Basic form: C is lower than A. In Bearish...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Details in chart. Huge FOMO rush to pile back in left a monster gap to fill 90 pips below. Another big gap at 2538.2 never filled. It will fill... Time cycles projected above, top-to-top time is ~ biweekly, 3-4 up days, 2-3 down days, 3-4 up days, ~ nine sessions. Trading >2SD above 20DMA, green line. This has been the magnet drawing price reversion to mean....

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. This recovery in bear market will be longer and more volatile by far than the 2018 minicrash V-recovery. Historically, most bears follow a WXYXZ path, with second X weaker than first, a lower high. The Z leg might be at or slightly above the 23 March low; a 5th wave extension could push it down to 1.272 x wave 1, to carry index around 1770. The...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

IWM and RUT have retraced half the steep March selloff. Bearish divergence from NQ which is at 91% and other major indexes at the 0.62 Fibo. Small business getting killed in the epidemic with global shutdowns. Full impact will only be apparent later this year; expect a double bottom.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

EW labels as charted suggest an ABC is unfolding in a Zig-Zag corrective structure: The 5-3-5 pattern is emerging, with the C wave 5-impulse remaining to fill; Bear market rally 'B' wave has taken form of a WXYXZ 3-3-3 minute wave pattern, 3 counter waves each in turn consisting of 3 minute waves (minute labels omitted for clarity); the double topping ending...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Tie-in to my EW combo wave idea for DJI. Indexes could move a bit higher off this shallow pullback on 4/13, to the 0.618 Fibo at 2937, as we saw at the 0.382 level; or rollover straight from here. A = 360 pips = C... ominous IMO. The secondary selloff could terminate at or near first selloff bottom ~2190; or dig a little deeper, or form a higher low, but it is...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says most all. Expect lower low around 17K in late May or early June. In 2008 and again in the two zig-zags of 2018, we saw the Elliott complex wave WXYXZ recur. W is pretty clearly carved out, lol. X1 is nearly completed, or at completion. Short entry for Y. Y has been a higher low, followed by a lower high at X2, giving the 'hunchbacked M' pattern which...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Lotta ppl thinking this is gonna repeat Jan 2019. That was a Bull Corrrection. This is a Bear. Bears grind for a Long Time. Median expected ~7-9 months. CV19 will take ~3-4 months to burn thru US population. April will be the Cruelest Month IMO, tens or even hundreds of thousands of cases. A Fool's Rally to the 0.50 Fibo around 24K will likely provoke a second...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Breaking the 200 week MA is a severe technical breakdown. Becomes bottomless after this. Last seen in 2008, 56% selloff. Panic selloff. Irrational exuberance replaced by irrational fear. Short the rallies, try not to get killed; GLTA! Not advice, clearly just an irrational idea. A fierce bear rally can occur at any time, trade at your own risk.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. Has been support in 2015/16 and 2018. WIll it hold again? I hope so; I'm going long here. 2054 is just 90 pips below now, IMO might see it this week. We do have a Bearish engulfing candle on 3/11, ominous for lower... but price forms a descending wedge, pop could come anytime now IMO. The selloff was so rapid and intense, the buyback will be a...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Decay strongly favors the contract holder. Notice even in the course of one day, with VIX hanging steady around 35-36, this thing lost $1 over 6 hours. See most insightful post credit to Hungry_Hippo, attached! Traded for $24 in the AM then price relaxed as VIX fell, on viral scare news at 14:38 VIX jumped back to 36 but UVXY reached... 23! This thing fades...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Simple idea. Getting bounce EOD 2/28 with follow-thru in ES Futurz overnight, Asia improving in early trade. Black Swan event seems less likely now with VIX forming shooting star on Friday. Massive volatility spike with extreme bearishness typical of bottoms. Market internals on Friday (A/D, new ATH issues at only 4 on NYSE, etc) equal to 24 Dec 2018 minicrash....

DaddySawbucks Updated 

B-D a perfect Fibo 1.618 extension to 1.05 x X-A in double top. This is extremely Bearish. Megaphone pattern suggests continuation of correction to tar zone ~27600. Might expect a last push to ATH in April after target zone achieved. We got divergence in Transports DJT and Russel 2k RUT, both lower with mixed markets- toppy! This is not investing advice; post is...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Pure WAG and sheer speculation. Absolutely NOT investing advice! This post is strictly for your amusement only; intended purely to entertain, so enjoy! NB: Near-term some sort of correction is due, index trading >2SD above 50DMA, RSI overbought near 80; absent a Fed Hike on 28/29 Jan, expect a modest pullback. The monster break of Feb 2018 is unlikely to repeat...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. US 30 trending in pitchfork straight railroad track pattern. Bear signal on 12/30/19; comes at or near completion of 5-wave Elliott impulse. Expect Bear down until it taps the lower rail; a bounce from there into Springtime will finish at 30K, intersection of top rail. Short until ABC completes; then all-in Long. This isn't investing advice;...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Got a typical reactionary rally after breakdown from rising wedge. Price moves back to kiss TL then rejects into C leg. This is a minor shallow correction of perhaps ~3%; a pause on road to ultimate ATH. Gaps to fill down to 2949 on SPX will be the best yardstick for pivot. Buy all-in when price fills that gap IMO. Donald will make some deal with China soon as he...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Getting higher lows and support inside the narrow wedge channel at and above 3095. This can break anytime, but it looks and feels like we could get a retest of ATH price at top of channel before it rolls over, to give a double top. RSI and volume diverge but often get the retest on low volume and relatively weak price action. Hanging on to my seat atm, watch,...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

We have breakout of the consolidation pattern and bullish RSI. Look back (scroll left) to see the double top Sep 20 - Oct 03 2018; note RSI diverged with lower reading on ATH 3 Oct even as price made higher high. We knew then it would sell. We don't have that yet a year later; we have an ATH; but RSI still not maxed c/w prior highs, I do expect a pullback to...